AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Lief 🗽]

ahahahahahahaha

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1696976067238498315?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6...

[SnowLabrador]

I didn't expect that, wow. Hopefully he beats Lake in the primary, he's an easier opponent for Gallego. Lake will win the primary, though, most likely.

[Duke of York]

I didn't expect that, wow. Hopefully he beats Lake in the primary, he's an easier opponent for Gallego. Lake will win the primary, though, most likely.

Lake has little chance of winning statewide at this juncture.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

New prediction market out.

Terribly designed market. Sinema should she run might do so under the No Labels or another self formed party (similar to Connecticut for Lieberman) She should be a seperate line

[Zedonathin2020]

ahahahahahahaha

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1696976067238498315?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6...

Ugh, I don’t even have a snarky comment for this one.

Blake is probably the weaker of the two to go against Gallego however, given he already lost last year. The primary is still likely Lake, general is still lean Gallego

[Pheurton Skeurto]

ahahahahahahaha

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1696976067238498315?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6...

Oh man, that's gonna be awesome. I hope they debate 100 times, I'll watch every single one.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I honestly wonder how Masters effects Lake's chances in a primary.

I think it likely harms her chances, she barley won her gubernatorial primary and she and Masters have a similar base. You need a candidate to consolidate the Robinson voters- Lannon maybe???

Masters is not a strong candidate but who knows in a potential 3 way race, the 46.5% he got in 2022 may be enough.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1696987703026278786

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Masters is an even worse candidate than Lake should he win the primary. The only silver lining for the GOP is that this may split the crazy vote in the primary and allows a normal candidate to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ and GA are Safe D states now

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

ahahahahahahaha

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1696976067238498315?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6...

Oh man, that's gonna be awesome. I hope they debate 100 times, I'll watch every single one.

I do too, I hope that Lake and Masters split the vote and allow some normal Republican to win.

Gallego is by far my least favorite Senate candidate in any race, but the problem is that Lake and Masters aren't appealing alternatives, to say the least.

[Senator Incitatus]

I was probably one of the biggest Masters boosters, so take what I say with a grain of salt, but I think with a year of hindsight that he’s both underrated and overrated as a candidate here.

I think his chances are underrated in that I still don’t buy the initial narrative that he lost because he was some sort of exceptionally off-putting person with unfixable flaws. I think most people understated Kelly’s strength, and Masters raised almost no money in the general with absolutely no base of support outside Thiel. But overrated because the inability to raise money or support is an absolutely fatal flaw if he can’t fix it.

As someone with some lingering sympathy for him, I wouldn’t advise a run here, since two strikes is probably the ballgame and his flaws can’t be overcome so quickly. This is probably the end for him.

[Blair]

The point about losing candidates in the tweet is even more hilarious when you remember that both Georgia and Arizona saw the republicans lose two times because they nominated awful candidates in states that should have dozens of republicans wanting to run statewide.

[oldtimer]

I was probably one of the biggest Masters boosters, so take what I say with a grain of salt, but I think with a year of hindsight that he’s both underrated and overrated as a candidate here.

I think his chances are underrated in that I still don’t buy the initial narrative that he lost because he was some sort of exceptionally off-putting person with unfixable flaws. I think most people understated Kelly’s strength, and Masters raised almost no money in the general with absolutely no base of support outside Thiel. But overrated because the inability to raise money or support is an absolutely fatal flaw if he can’t fix it.

As someone with some lingering sympathy for him, I wouldn’t advise a run here, since two strikes is probably the ballgame and his flaws can’t be overcome so quickly. This is probably the end for him.

How can anyone be a Masters booster after his terrible social security policy and terrible debate performances ?

The Libertarian actually did a better campaign in Arizona than Masters.

[Senator Incitatus]

–snip–

How can anyone be a Masters booster after his terrible social security policy and terrible debate performances ?

The Libertarian actually did a better campaign in Arizona than Masters.

I was pretty careful to use the past tense, because my point was that I am biased against him by my strong disappointment in his terrible general election campaign. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I was probably one of the biggest Masters boosters, so take what I say with a grain of salt, but I think with a year of hindsight that he’s both underrated and overrated as a candidate here.

I think his chances are underrated in that I still don’t buy the initial narrative that he lost because he was some sort of exceptionally off-putting person with unfixable flaws. I think most people understated Kelly’s strength, and Masters raised almost no money in the general with absolutely no base of support outside Thiel. But overrated because the inability to raise money or support is an absolutely fatal flaw if he can’t fix it.

As someone with some lingering sympathy for him, I wouldn’t advise a run here, since two strikes is probably the ballgame and his flaws can’t be overcome so quickly. This is probably the end for him.

How can anyone be a Masters booster after his terrible social security policy and terrible debate performances ?

The Libertarian actually did a better campaign in Arizona than Masters.

I actually think Masters did okay at the debate.

His Social Security policy was terrible (at least from an electability standpoint; we can debate whether or not it is what the nation actually needs), and he also gave socially awkward, neo-Nazi vibes. He seemed obsessed with the culture war and crypto as well.

[coloradocowboi]

The problem with the GOP rn is that people like Masters, Vivek, DeSantis appeal only to people completely immersed in media that nobody else consumes or cares about. They are essentially 4chan memelords, Babylon bee pundits, which is extremely useful in a GOP primary but likely to turn off lots of voters they need to win a general election. And because they receive so much positive feedback by being 4chan memelords in their own internet and media bubbles, they actually don’t understand that the avg american perceives the character they are playing as an incel at best and a neonazi at worst.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm not a fan of Masters but he's much better than the obnoxious Kari Lake and her lesbian haircut. A Lake Gallego race would be the most toxic election of all time and would give Sinema the golden oppurtunity to be the only sane one in the room and win.

The idea that people will hold their nose and vote for Gallego or Lake implies Sinema is a Gary Johnson tier candidate and Arizonans don't want to waste their vote. But when you take the two most annoying candidates from each party, all of a sudden Sinema becomes a viable option, get the McCain family's endorsement, and once she is viewed as an equivalent force as the other two, winning is suddenly in the cards for her.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The problem with the GOP rn is that people like Masters, Vivek, DeSantis appeal only to people completely immersed in media that nobody else consumes or cares about. They are essentially 4chan memelords, Babylon bee pundits, which is extremely useful in a GOP primary but likely to turn off lots of voters they need to win a general election. And because they receive so much positive feedback by being 4chan memelords in their own internet and media bubbles, they actually don’t understand that the avg american perceives the character they are playing as an incel at best and a neonazi at worst.

The fact that the "most electable options" right now are election deniers says a lot about the state of the party right now.

[President Johnson]

It feels like 2024 is going to be the same recruitment failure for Republicans as was 2022. The map actually puts them in a decent position to regain the senate majority, even if Biden wins reelection. It would be beyond hilarious if they blow it due to terrible candidates.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It feels like 2024 is going to be the same recruitment failure for Republicans as was 2022. The map actually puts them in a decent position to regain the senate majority, even if Biden wins reelection. It would be beyond hilarious if they blow it due to terrible candidates.

I think that even with good candidates, it's not as easy as people are making it out to be. I think at the Congressional level, 2024 will look bluer than 2022, as turnout will certainly be more Democratic. This doesn't exactly bode well for Republicans in the Senate.

The difference is that Trump is holding his own versus Biden in the polls, but that's explained by Biden being uniquely weak. For example, one poll shows Trump +2, Gallego +7 in Arizona, another shows Trump +10, Brown +10 in Ohio.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It feels like 2024 is going to be the same recruitment failure for Republicans as was 2022. The map actually puts them in a decent position to regain the senate majority, even if Biden wins reelection. It would be beyond hilarious if they blow it due to terrible candidates.

Their recruitment isn't good but Daines has done enough to where its better than 2022 for sure. Jim Justice is a slam dunk in WV most likely, assuming Manchin somehow runs. LaRose or Dolan is likely going to be the nominee in Ohio and a significant upgrade to the Mandel's and Renacci's of the past. Montana might be an issue if Rosendale announces and becomes the nominee, but assuming he doesn't Sheehy is okay. Nevada becomes a failure if Marchant beats out Sam Brown. Wisconsin doesn't look good right now but its still early and the only person who officially filed is some rando. Pennsylvania is also dissapointing as it will likely be McCormick who is pretty meh, but at least better than Mastriano I guess. For all the hate the MI GOP gets their field is surprisingly decent especially if Peter Meijer gets in.

They are doing better than 2022 for sure, but also the bare minimum.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not a fan of Masters but he's much better than the obnoxious Kari Lake and her lesbian haircut. A Lake Gallego race would be the most toxic election of all time and would give Sinema the golden oppurtunity to be the only sane one in the room and win.

The idea that people will hold their nose and vote for Gallego or Lake implies Sinema is a Gary Johnson tier candidate and Arizonans don't want to waste their vote. But when you take the two most annoying candidates from each party, all of a sudden Sinema becomes a viable option, get the McCain family's endorsement, and once she is viewed as an equivalent force as the other two, winning is suddenly in the cards for her.

You can keep on acting as if Gallego and Lake are somehow equal and it gets more and more ridiculous each time.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1701738526625411226?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4t...

[Ferguson97]

It feels like 2024 is going to be the same recruitment failure for Republicans as was 2022. The map actually puts them in a decent position to regain the senate majority, even if Biden wins reelection. It would be beyond hilarious if they blow it due to terrible candidates.

I'll laugh my ass off if Biden keeps the Senate for all 8 years of his presidency due to sheer GOP incompetence.