Btw, I actually ran into Hogan's pollster at a bar earlier this week. Obviously he's biased, but he thinks Hogan's lead is real, although he certainly won't win by 16.
Thinking about it, there actually is no recent 1-1 precedent for a situation like this. It's still much more likely than not that Hogan loses, but there is an opening.
This is the exact same mindset the people here adopted for MT 2020 and TN 2018, and I was one of them.
I don’t understand why we keep making this same mistake.
It was also the same mindset adopted in WV-2010 Manchin.
People wan the moderate gov candidate to win in a safe state for the ther party. It rarely happens but not never.
To be fair, during the 2000s and early 2010s WV had many voters who voted R for president but D for nearly all other offices, so it was certainly fair to expect Manchin to be favored when he ran in the early 2010s.
