Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[2016]

Russian Military Forces have destroyed a Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv. The Ukrainian Capital maybe partially in complete darkness tonight! That is bad news!

[2016]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

And I don't want to read your inane posts, but, that's life, you don't always get what you want.

I am not insane. I actually support Ukraine in this!

[President Johnson]

UK follows EU in imposing sanctions against Putin personally. Hopefully our American friends do the same pretty soon.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1497272840852320261

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is excluding Russia from the ESC the correct decision to make? In my opinion it is.

Is it news that relates to the ongoing war agaínst Ukraine? Yes, it is.

Is this thread there we discuss and report events related to the ongoing against Ukraine? Yes, it is.

None of that changes the fact it's all pointless meaningless bullsh**t as it relates to the conduct and outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.

As Torrain pointed out, it creates - in conjunction with many other, similar measures that have been or will be taken - a clear and coherent message to the Russian people.

And you and him seriously believe that those people are reading this thread, and that the items that are going to send them over the edge from mildly being uninterested to seeing the wrong in this invasion for Russia is the F1 Grand Prix got cancelled and they were kicked out of a song contest? I can hook you up to a lie detector, and that's what you're going to tell me you believe?

Meanwhile no one has commented on what the f#ck actually is going on in this thread on the ground in Ukraine - which is all that matters.

Tbh, I find your post a bit baffling and confusing, since I neither believe that nor have I said or indicated that I believe that. I'm posting stuff in this thread solely because I have become invested in the situation in Ukraine and everything that surrounds it. Yes, that can also apply to the Eurovision Song Contest about which I probably would have posted only once hadn't you said something about it.

You're generally making the impression that you have a bit trouble keeping things apart from each other in your mind, without mixing them up. I don't mean that be disparaging, I have an autistic colleague who reminded me a bit of that.

[Splash]

UK follows EU in imposing sanctions against Putin personally. I hope the US follows.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1497272840852320261

Sounds like they will: https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/politics/us-putin-sanctions/index.html

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

And I don't want to read your inane posts, but, that's life, you don't always get what you want.

I am not insane. I actually support Ukraine in this!

Well, that too.

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1497273163146801158

Based Boris.

Maybe a little Churchill in him after all...

Funny joke there, Alben!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

You put it better than I ever could. Agreed completely.

[Mike88]

Portuguese fuel company, Prio, cuts all business with Russia:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1497282083047235584

Oil company Prio cuts ties with its Russian suppliers

The oil company Prio reported this Friday that “until the situation on the ground stabilized, it stopped considering as part of its suppliers and no longer purchasing any products from Russian or directly related companies, as it did in the past”.

In 2021, the company transacted with companies in Russia or directly related, around 20 million euros of equipment, fuels and raw materials for advanced ultra-sustainable biofuels, an amount equivalent to roughly 2.5% of its purchases over the course of the year. year.

The oil company says that it is about the “application, on its modest scale, of the economic sanctions that it has in its hand to impose on the Russian economy”, in the face of the invasion of Ukrainian territory.

I use their fuel stations several times, they have lower fuel prices compared with the other fuel companies.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

Bro we literally just lived through this.  At least wait a few weeks before starting in on the gaslighting.

[Person Man]

Time to check world reactions again!

Those Supporting Russia, hereafter to be known as “Sh!+hole Countries”:
-obviously Belarus and all the Russian puppets like Abkhazia
-Artsakh, hey congrats, you actually made me think more kindly of Azerbaijan now
-The Central African Republic, oh yeah, actual neocolonialism in action by Russia here
-Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and special guest Evo Morales! I don’t want to hear a f***ing WORD from the Latin American International Socialist contingent bitching about American imperialism while remaining silent or outright supporting what Russia is doing
-Syria, Iran, and the Houthis, “but what about U.S.-“ F*** off, Putinists
-Myanmar, ‘The spokesperson for Myanmar's State Administration Council, Zaw Min Tun, supported Russia's decision, stating that "Russia was acting to protect its sovereignty" and praised Russia's role in balancing global power” gee that sounds like some posters in this thread, well @$$holes will be @$$holes, speaking of which
-hey look it’s China, f*** them too
-in a reversal of earlier reports, Kazakhstan, not a shocker really
-why it’s Donald Trump!

A Bit Less Overly Pro-Russian But It’s Clear Where They Stand:
-Nigeria, wow Russia and China have been busy in Africa it seems with bribing governments
-Pakistan, visiting Moscow during this crisis to get sweet trade deals, can we please stop pretending these snakes are “major non-NATO allies” already?
-Sri Lanka, literally “both sides” using, clearly doing what China wants
-Bolivia, no condemnation of Russia, but this IS the government that cheered Daniel Ortega’s “re-election” just recently and their statements are weak, plus the opposition is having a field day snarking about this
-Republika Srpska, who could have seen THAT coming?
-and here’s Gerhard Schroeder!

Dishonorable Mentions:
-India, really now Modi, THIS is when you choose to be a dick? You’re de facto on the side of China by doing this you know
-Jair Bolonsaro in Brazil, hilariously his own Vice President disagrees with him on this
-Naftalli Bennett, no condemnation, yes yes the Russian Jews are part of the coalition and more importantly you’re still better than Netanyahu
-Serbia, wow even Hungary is condemning Russia and you sure are looking isolated in Europe, huh?
-plenty of Republicans, I don’t have a count of the traitorous lot
-The Scarsdale Currency Trading Corporation

Lots of Neutrals so far in the developing world, but not all of them!

And The Anti-Russians, oh look it’s most of the parts of the world that don’t suck

In conclusion, F*** Russia and everyone who supports their actions.

Putin's catamites.

[It’s so Joever]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

Except...this is pretty extreme for Putin's traditional playbook.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's more like:

Russia:  Prepares to invade Ukraine
Western intel:  Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine
Ukraine:  Russia is preparing to invade us
Russia:  No, we are not going to invade Ukraine unless provoked

Russia:  All I want is to negotiate for my own territorial security.
West:  OK, let's sit down at the diplomacy table.
Russia:  You must 100% abandon all the countries I want to eat, also I get to invade Ukraine to stop them from invading me.  In return you get nothing.
West:  That doesn't sound like a serious offer.
Russia:  The West is making me invade, it's not my fault.

Western intel:  Russia is preparing a false-flag provocation as a pretext for invading Ukraine.
Russia:  No, we would never do that.
Western intel:  Russia is amassing troops on the Ukrainian border
Russia:  No, we would never do that.
Western intel:  Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine on February 23 at 4 AM.
Russia:  No, we would never do that.
Russia (a few minutes later):  Ukraine is a fake country run by secret nazis and pedophiles that is rightful property of the Russian empire.
Russia (a few minutes later):  Help, help, we are under attack by Ukraine!  We didn't want to do this, but we must invade to defend ourselves!
Russia (a few minutes later):  Invades Ukraine on February 23 at 4 AM.

[It’s so Joever]

Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

[WMS]

I've been kicking this around in my head and have alluded to it before, but since we have a megathread I'll just ask, what impact do you think our withdrawal from Afghanistan had on Russia's decision here? I'm aware these things take time to plan, but Russia has likely had an invasion plan for Ukraine ready to go for a while, just as the United States has for various countries.

As I've said before, if we weren't willing to stay engaged in Afghanistan then there's a 0% chance we were going to get involved in Ukraine, where we hadn't been invested for 20 years and there was no connection to any attack on the United States. Putin's not an idiot, he knows that. There has to be a reason he waited until now to do this instead of doing it last year, two years ago, or five years ago. Same deal with China now starting sabre rattling with Taiwan. If you don't think it's Afghanistan then there has to be another reason this is specifically happening now when it wasn't earlier and I can't think of one.

Absolutely none

The Russians and Americans and Chinese all know that avoiding conventional confrontation between nuclear powers in the cornerstone of nuclear war prevention policy. There was never a question of NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. Aside from which, the groundwork for this invasion was being laid years in advance, with the creation of proxy breakaway states in Ukraine by Russia. Donetsk and Luhansk separatists are a distinct minority of the population and the breakaway republics are largely secured by ununiformed Russian ‘volunteers’, the Minsk accords that Putin likes to talk about, despite being overwhelmingly favorable to the Russian proxies, have been ignored by the Russian proxies, who have periodic attacks on Ukrainian positions trying to bait a response to justify an official Russian military intervention. The entire existence of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics are a Russian project to to give justification to an invasion and that project started about 5 to 6 years ago. Aside from which, the amount of planning and groundwork that goes into a major modern military action starts well before the troop buildup actually begins. Russia didn’t decide to invade one day this summer, this has been years in the making.

Anyway the Afghan withdrawal would have actually complicated, not emboldened, a Russian move into Ukraine if they thought western military resistance was in the cards, as it gives the United States significantly more freedom of action without it’s own, significantly logically more complicated occupation to worry about.

As a side note, we should talk a bit about the nationality issue, until the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian was the exclusive language of education and media in Ukraine. As a result, there is a large population of Ukrainians for whom Russian is the sole or primary language. This does not make those people Russians nor does this imply a sympathy towards the Russian Federation or desire for Russian annexation. There is also, separately, a community of Russians living in Ukraine, some percentage of these may support Russians annexation, but you’d be hard pressed to find anywhere that is majority opinion (leaving aside Crimea, which is essentially it’s own thing bolted onto Ukraine in the Soviet era). If you actually listen to Putin’s statements for internal consumption rather than the word salad he spits out to the international community, it’s pure blood and soil Nazi stuff. Ukrainians and Belorussians are fake nationalities invented by the west which must be reunited with the other Russians by force if necessary. Not terribly different from how Serb nationalists talk about Croats and Bosnians. This is what Russian means by the nationality issue.

Cross-posting because this is excellent.

[jaichind]

Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

Just to be clear, Modi is much more likely to align with the USA over Russia relative to INC.  If INC was in charge the India position is even more likely to be pro-Russia.  Modi is mostly responding to his own elite and public opinion in India.

[StateBoiler]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

Except...this is pretty extreme for Putin's traditional playbook.

Well, nothing happened to Russia from Georgia 2008. Nothing happened to Russia from Crimea 2014. Nothing happened to Russia from the continuing tit-for-tat ops in Donbass. Putin probably thought his win streak would continue. This war was in part created from the people in charge during those times being weak in the rebuttal. Props to Biden on putting his feet in the ground and giving up nothing diplomatically, although giving up nothing diplomatically does mean either Putin invades or does wholesale withdrawal in a humiliating defeat for him. I think the West and Ukraine didn't believe he'd invade until very late in the game. It's one of the criticisms from history from an academic perspective is assuming everyone operating is a rational actor that thinks similarly. I'll admit watching the news last night it kind of made me think of Iraq. Bush and his staff all had clear plans on what they were going to do and they ran into much less resistance than what the Ukrainians provided. It provided me a perspective on what an outsider might've thought of it at the time.

To that point, there's a great Latvian-based podcast called the Eastern Border that mostly focuses on Soviet/Russian history and the guy put up an emergency show yesterday after hostilities started. He said the deep feeling he felt in his stomach made him realize what Americans must've felt after 9/11.

[DavidB.]

Georgia's government has shown its true colors. After pretending to continue the Western path (although the ruling party's eminence grise is a billionaire who does a lot of business in Russia) which is crucial to win public support (~80 % support accession to NATO and EU), the government has announced it will not join sanctions against Russia, blamed the opposition for the 2008 War (they really have no other empty talking point) and provide liquidity to Georgia's branch of the VTB Bank that was hit by Russian sanctions.
The only Georgian representative who sided with Ukraine is the President, an office that was stripped of all its powers and that will be be elected by a council selected by government party cronies instead of popular vote from 2024 on.

Hundreds, if not thousands, of people demonstrated to support Russia yesterday, and this action will hopefully absolutely backfire against this goddamn insane Georgian Dream (more like Nightmare) gov't.

It has nothing to do with GD showing its "true colors" and everything with any responsible Georgian government being cautious not to be the next country to be invaded. Georgia is much weaker than Ukraine in terms of military strength and has no security guarantees whatsoever - indeed, Georgians currently witness in Ukraine the fact that NATO's "sympathy" and a "potential path to accession" (that most Georgians don't really believe is going to happen anymore anyway, as the West doesn't give them any credible perspective to accession) means absolutely nothing when the Russians knock on the door.

It is equally true that while Russia was the aggressor and "victim blaming" is very wrong, Saakashvili did behave irresponsibly and exacerbated the situation in 2008. Saahaskvili's later domestic behavior is the exact reason why GD keeps getting re-elected and will continue to be re-elected until a serious, non-Saakashvili-led alternative contender for power emerges.

[It’s so Joever]

Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

Just to be clear, Modi is much more likely to align with the USA over Russia relative to INC.  If INC was in charge the India position is even more likely to be pro-Russia.  Modi is mostly responding to his own elite and public opinion in India.

I am aware, the presence of Russophilia in India is not limited to the BJP and it would make sense the political party with even more historical ties with the USSR would also be more pro-Russia.

[Mike88]

It seems that there is a blackout in Kyiv. The energy plant was destroyed by Russian forces.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

JFC, this is the exact opposite of what happened

Russian proxies never implemented Minsk protocols and Ukraine did as much as they could with uniformed Russian troops regularly shooting at them, the ‘security guarantees’ amounted to completely disarming Ukraine so that Russia could invade it, the ‘security guarantees’ they asked for from the West was the complete abandonment of Eastern Europe. And the regularly monitored and reported on troop movements and predicted the Russian invasion to the date. The only people that thought they were bluffing were the Germans for some damn reason.

Don’t your desire to be clever cloud your judgement, that way lies Tucker Carlson.

[rc18]

Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

You do realise that Indo-Russian weapons cooperation is implicitly directed to striking (among others) China?

[It’s so Joever]

Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

You do realise that Indo-Russian weapons cooperation is implicitly directed to striking (among others) China?

In the past, yes.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1497293758060187648?t=VK6eaN2qSFwOW5nz8...

[The Free North]

Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

You do realise that Indo-Russian weapons cooperation is implicitly directed to striking (among others) China?

In the past, yes.

China is literally building fake villages near Bhutan and the northeast of India to try to claim contested territory. The conflict is very much still real there.