There is no evidence to suggest SC will become a swing state, or even trend in one direction or another, at this point.
SC is one of the fastest growing states in the country, at 10%, and has the second fastest growing metro in the country (Myrtle Beach, at nearly 28%), and Charleston not too far behind at #14 (at 18.5%). For this reason alone, we can expect some fluctuation and SC is definitely a state worth keeping an eye on- it may be one of the more interesting states to follow over the next few decades. But to say it's trending D or R is way too premature at this point. For one, although we know it's growing, we don't know whether that will cause it to go the way of FL or VA yet. Or maybe somewhere in the middle like NC. Contrast to say, GA, in which case there's a clearer trend. SC did trend R in '16- again, contrast to GA.
Skill/Chance has a good point about the possible demographics moving in. I would say that's one piece of the puzzle, but perhaps Greenville is the answer to that. Not taking a position one way or another here, just saying it's too early to call or even identify a trend.
It's trending D but slowly. SC is similar to MS and AK to an extent. The GOP is already maxed out rural and the rural areas with minorities majorities are losing population. Meaning that Republican victory comes mostly from suburban areas.
I don't see the similarity here at all. AK is in a completely different region of the country with completely different demographics- there is no resemblance whatsoever so far as I can tell.
There's more of a similarity with MS, but the only things they honestly share is that they're both in the South and are inelastic. Other than that, the trends are completely different; not the least of which is the fact that SC is one of the fastest growing states in the US and MS is one of the slowest.
MS also has extremely unfavorable demographics for the GOP in the long term and is, in fact, a ticking time bomb for the GOP, where one could not say that for SC. Rather, as I've illustrated above, the opposite could actually be true.
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