Portugal Legislative Elections, 10/04/2015

[Zanas]

I've been rude to our fellow Danish poster, which prompted her to delete it. I've since apologized via PM. Dunno if it can be restored.

[Zanas]

PPD/PSD.CDS-PP
Portugal à Frente
   
41,31%
599.275 votos
   
Mandatos
10

PS
Partido Socialista
   
31,60%
458.338 votos
   
Mandatos
3

B.E.
Bloco de Esquerda
   
8,18%
118.591 votos
   
PCP-PEV
CDU - Coligação Democrática Unitária
   
6,60%
95.740 votos

[Zanas]

Anyway, in order to be a bit more productive, no "small party" gets more than 1.3% in either Lisboa or Porto for now, making it improbable that anyone other than the "Big Four" will get in.

[Zanas]

What are the typical "swing Districts" I could look at to see what the eventual vote tally is going to look like?

From a quick look, Coimbra, Porto and Santarem were the bellwethers of last time.

[Zanas]

Turnout seems to have been way overestimated by pollsters, and could well end below last time's. No idea why, but futebol may be to blame/thank.

[Zanas]

In Lisboa, after the Big Four :
PAN (Pessoas-Animais-Natureza) (centre-left ecologist) 1,54%   
PCTP/MRPP 1,34%
PDR (Partido Democrático Republicano) (centrist) 1,07%
L/TDA (LIVRE/Tempo de Avançar) 0,74%
PNR (far-right) 0,63%

[Zanas]

Turnout seems to have been way overestimated by pollsters, and could well end below last time's. No idea why, but futebol may be to blame/thank.

I suppose this benefits PaF? Or isn't it clear?

Yeah, it could have prevented a bigger blow to the government, who is currently retaining a strong plurality, near absolute majority.

[Zanas]

How could be already some MP´s for for example Lisboa awarded? Are there some constiuncies separated?

In PR in a constituency, once you reach the quota, you have one seat.

[Zanas]

If 2011 results are any indication, BE should end up at around 9.8%, CDU at around 8.3%, PS at around 31.4%.

[Zanas]

So this will likely lead to a PS govt with explicit outside support from BE and tacit Communist support, if the right doesn't win a majority?

No way. This will more probably result in a minority right-wing government, with just the support they'll need to pass bills from a few PS MPs.

[Zanas]

Does somebody have a link to a website with nice maps and results coming in?

The official website is not too shabby : http://www.legislativas2015.mai.gov.pt/territorio-nacional.html

[Zanas]

http://www.rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes/legislativas/2015

This is pretty nice too.

Yep, it's possible to check results by district (distrito), municipality (concelho) and locality (freguesia).

For instance: results for Carnota, a freguesia in the concelho of Alenquer belonging to the distrito of Lisboa:

http://www.rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes/legislativas/2015/110000-lisboa/110100-alenquer/110106-carnota

This is also possible on the official website though : http://www.legislativas2015.mai.gov.pt/territorio-nacional.html#%00

[Zanas]

Antonio Costa speaking. He just announced a reduction of abstention, which doesn't seem to be the case, actually.

[Zanas]

Why is PaF doing so well in Lisboa? I thought the city leaned left.

The district as a whole leans a bit left, yes, but the city (concelho) itslef seems pretty much in line with the country.

[Zanas]

If there's going to be a right-wing minority government dependent of PS MPs' outside support, what are the chances that it will collapse before 2019?

I don't know, things are still a bit fuzzy. I don't think Portugal is used to a national minority government. This may not last very long at all.

[Zanas]

In Lisbon, one freguesia still missing, but making the calculations it should be :
PSD 18
PS 18
BE 5+1
CDU 5

The +1 is the last D'Hondt seat there. It's very very close with PSD.

[Zanas]

On 226 seats for mainland Portugal we should get :
PSD 100+4 = 104
PS 80+5 = 85
BE 19+1 = 20
CDU 15+2 = 17

With abroad seats, that should be 3 PSD and 1 PS :
PSD 107
PS 86
BE 20
CDU 17

[Zanas]

In Lisbon, one freguesia still missing, but making the calculations it should be :
PSD 18
PS 18
BE 5+1
CDU 5

The +1 is the last D'Hondt seat there. It's very very close with PSD.

my impression is that one seat will go to PAN (if the quota is something like 25.000 votes).
rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes/legislativas/2015/110000-lisboa

Well I had overlooked that, but you, my friend, are absolutely right : in fact it would be the 45th seat. They just have to hope their result holds in the last freguesia.

[Zanas]

And PAN got its seat. Persons-Animals-Nature.

That's quite cool.

Quite cool indeed. Wonder if they're anything like PvdD. Seem less radical to me though.

This result is proof that D'Hondt in 40-50 seats constituencies is one of the best systems we've got. I find it particularly fitting that PAN is also the better polling "small party" nationally.

[Zanas]

This is literal fascism.

Errr... What is ?

Portugal Socialists say ready to form leftist government
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/20/us-portugal-government-consultations-idUSKCN0SE20420151020

Wow, looks like most of the forum was actually too pessimistic for once.

I'm still pessimistic about the prospects of this "mariage de la carpe et du lapin" government. But hey what the hell, maybe something good will come out of it, for once.