PPP: Clinton leads 10 of 12 Super Tuesday and beyond states

[Ebsy]

Terrible numbers for Sanders. If he has a hope of winning the nomination, he has to win majorities of delegates in the actual contests outside of Vermont. That won't be happening in any of these states with these margins.

[Ebsy]

Obviously, Sanders needs to improve on these numbers, but they're not that bad for him. If he is winning in MA, and could conceivably win OK, he'll survive Super Tuesday. Those MI numbers also don't look as bad for him as I thought they would. He almost certainly needs to do better than a 20+ point-loss in TX and VA, though.

Yes, these numbers suggest a veritable delegate slaughter for Sanders.

[Ebsy]

Obviously, Sanders needs to improve on these numbers, but they're not that bad for him. If he is winning in MA, and could conceivably win OK, he'll survive Super Tuesday. Those MI numbers also don't look as bad for him as I thought they would. He almost certainly needs to do better than a 20+ point-loss in TX and VA, though.

PPP has been very nice to Clinton, and they will tighten as they have everywhere else leading up to voting day when the attention shifts.  

They really haven't.

Yes they have. They over estimated Clinton's lead in Iowa by 7-8% and underestimated Sander's lead in New Hampshire by 10%.

Their last NH Poll was January 2-5, way too far before the election to be considered a prediction of the result.

[Ebsy]

Castro, I do believe you are going to have a very frustrating March.

[Ebsy]

Why is it thought that Sanders will win the caucuses? Just because Clinton did terrible in caucuses in '08? Or is it something about those states? I mean he did lose, or at best draw, the only caucus we've had so far.

We won't really know until Super Tuesday. In many ways, Iowa went the opposite of what people were expecting, and it is the only caucus state we have had.

[Ebsy]

Clinton did terribly in caucuses in 2008 because she made no effort to win them, choosing instead of focus on delegate heavy states, many of which she did win. But, Obama won by such lopsided margins in caucus states, he wracked up delegates leads she couldn't hope to catch. Whatever you think about Clinton, her campaign is avoiding the mistakes they made last time in regards to this, as Iowa shows. She doesn't actually need to win caucus states, just keep down Sanders' margins so that he doesn't cut heavily into her superdelegate lead.

[Ebsy]

Michigan, for example, is not likely to be decided by ten points.

Yeah, most of the other Michigan polls have Clinton up by a lot more.

[Ebsy]

Not sure about Colorado but most caucus states offer same night registration.

Colorado does not. It is too late to change your registration.

[Ebsy]

Winning by 10+ points in Texas would result in a massive delegate advantage for Clinton simply due to the state's size and delegate apportionment.