VA-GOV 2017: Who will win? Gillespie or Northam?

[Skill and Chance]

Northam, but only by 0.5-2.0 max.  Basically a repeat of 2014 with more accurate late polls.  He'll be saved by Fairfax and Hampton Roads (hometown margin in Norfolk/Eastern Shore, keeping VA Beach basically tied), but it was utter stupidity to tell ~40% of the state to shove it the week before the election.  This should have been all statewide Dems by +8-12 with the HoD on a knife's edge of flipping. 

Also rather confident Vogel sneaks through by 0.5-2% now.

[Skill and Chance]

I wouldn't be surprised if its a Republican landslide.  That's how badly the Democratic Party sucks.

Well, one interpretation of 2016 is that Trump really was a bad candidate and Republicans would be as strong as they were in the 1920's right now without him.  If Gillespie wins big, that would basically confirm that view, and Democrats likely won't be winning anything outside of their base states until the next time the economy crashes.