2020 Poll Hype Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 190576 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #50 on: June 14, 2020, 11:27:43 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 11, 2020, 12:34:44 PM

I guess this is the first AR poll for the 2020 election ...

My guess:

54-37-2 Trump/Biden/Others

Actual result:

Trump +2

And I thought my prediction was favourable for Biden ... Tongue
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #51 on: June 23, 2020, 02:02:16 PM »
The AZ sample seems kinda pro-Trump (Trump+12), but the other samples seem ok.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #52 on: June 23, 2020, 02:06:24 PM »
Quote
The poll of WI was fielded from June 8-15.

PA and AZ were fielded from June 8-16.

MI was fielded from June 8-17.

NC and FL were fielded from June 8-18.

The national survey was fielded from June 17-22.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #53 on: June 24, 2020, 10:49:59 AM »
My guess:

WI-Marquette: Biden+7
OH-Quinnipiac: Biden+4

FL-Siena: Biden+7
NC-Siena: Biden+5
AZ-Siena: Biden+1
PA-Siena: Biden+13
MI-Siena: Biden+14
WI-Siena: Biden+9
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #54 on: July 04, 2020, 01:23:00 AM »
Will there ever be a Louisiana poll ?

I think Biden is within 5% there.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #55 on: July 04, 2020, 11:47:47 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 04, 2020, 08:40:49 AM
So has Marist given up on state polling? There have been no NBC/Marist polls since Ohio back in like March

I think they are waiting for the conventions or after Labor Day, then switch to likely voters and release more polls.

Same with Mason-Dixon.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #56 on: July 10, 2020, 03:58:27 PM »
I’m pretty sure that Trump doesn’t lead by more than 8% in MT.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #57 on: July 14, 2020, 12:54:39 PM »
Monmouth - PA:

51% Biden
41% Trump
 3% Others

Biden+10.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #58 on: July 14, 2020, 10:53:45 PM »
Quote from: Senator YE on July 14, 2020, 09:56:28 PM


Praise the Lord !

I need to see if I can donate as well, or if this is limited to Americans ...

It's also great that they commission different pollsters for the states.

2.939$ of 20.000$ is in so far.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #59 on: July 15, 2020, 12:37:43 AM »
They are crowdfunding ca. 100$ per hour, so the 20.000$ goal for all 3 states could be reached in ca. 1 week.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #60 on: July 15, 2020, 04:17:57 AM »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on July 15, 2020, 01:59:48 AM
My prediction for the Monmouth poll:

48-47 in favor of Trump

"Biden Imperiled in Key Swing State as Trump Stages Miraculous Comeback"

Why would Trump be ahead in PA ?

That doesn't make any sense ...

Maybe he's down 4-5% in their poll, but 10% or so is more likely.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #61 on: July 15, 2020, 09:45:47 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 15, 2020, 05:12:25 AM
Quote from: Senator YE on July 14, 2020, 09:56:28 PM


Wow, now that I know it's SUSA, I might donate again.

The KS poll is now ca. 50% financed.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #62 on: July 15, 2020, 10:05:27 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 14, 2020, 12:54:39 PM
Monmouth - PA:

51% Biden
41% Trump
 3% Others

Biden+10.

Nailed it.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #63 on: July 15, 2020, 12:55:00 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 15, 2020, 09:45:47 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 15, 2020, 05:12:25 AM
Quote from: Senator YE on July 14, 2020, 09:56:28 PM


Wow, now that I know it's SUSA, I might donate again.

The KS poll is now ca. 50% financed.

It seems they are fundraising ca. 1.000$ per day, so the KS poll can probably be commissioned by Saturday or Sunday.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #64 on: July 16, 2020, 10:33:54 AM »
Larry Sabato has just donated 500$ for the KS/ME/GA-SurveyUSA fundraising project.

Huge FF.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #65 on: July 16, 2020, 11:15:42 PM »
Good news:

Election Twitter has just passed the 7.000$ fundraising goal for their KS / SurveyUSA poll.

An anonymous person has donated more than 1.000$ in the past hour.

Their Maine poll is also more than 1.000$ funded already.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/PollCrowdfunding
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #66 on: July 18, 2020, 05:47:25 AM »
With the ElectionTwitter KS/SurveyUSA poll financed, their 2nd poll (Maine) will take longer.

About 2.000$ have been collected so far, out of 7.000 needed - but this won’t be reached until the end of July ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #67 on: July 18, 2020, 11:51:06 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on July 18, 2020, 06:10:14 PM

Much better.

Excellent.

This will allow for an unprecedented look at a red state and how it potentially changes this year, due to the higher sample size and mixed mode methodology ... 👍
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #68 on: July 20, 2020, 01:24:20 PM »
The KS/SurveyUSA/Election Twitter poll will go into the field on August 5, a day after the primary.

Polling both the primary and GE was impossible, because it would have cost a lot more than the 15.000$ that were raised on GoFundMe ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #69 on: July 21, 2020, 12:33:18 PM »
Election Twitter's GFM fundraising effort for ME and GA is not going well anymore ...

After raising 15.000$ for a high-quality KS poll, only 929$ has come in for the ME poll so far - while 7.000$ are needed.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #70 on: July 22, 2020, 11:18:16 AM »

45% Biden
45% Trump
  2% Jorgensen (on the ballot in TX)
  1% Hawkins (on the ballot in TX)
  7% Undecided

Not sure if they polled Jorgensen and Hawkins, but it would be time as they are both confirmed now.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #71 on: July 22, 2020, 02:08:42 PM »
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #72 on: July 22, 2020, 02:13:51 PM »
Tenderˋs educated predictions for Gravis:

WI: Biden+11
MI: Biden+12
PA: Biden+10
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #73 on: July 22, 2020, 02:25:00 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on July 22, 2020, 02:20:14 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 22, 2020, 02:08:42 PM


Question is whether they're finishing them up to send to OANN or not...

No.

They previously posted that the 3 polls are paid by themselves, not by OANN.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,179
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #74 on: July 23, 2020, 12:07:19 PM »
FL - Quinnipiac:

50% Biden
41% Trump
 3% Others (both Jorgensen & Hawkins are on the ballot in FL, but were probably not polled)
 6% Undecided
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