Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If BW keeps creeping up and Likud creeping down and New Right stays below threshold, this could actually work out decently for the center in terms of seats, right?

The left still isn't doing great in terms of seats. I'm guessing the right will be in the low-to-mid 60s if NR doesn't get in, mid-to-high 60s if NR does get in.

65-55 has been about the standard distribution of seats in terms of right vs. left for a couple of elections now, so no surprise there. But not enough for the left either. Given the fact that KL shifted much further to the right than ZU, that's not a conclusion that should give the left much optimism. Zehut being out also really helps Netanyahu. He now may only need the Haredim, YB and URP. Could possibly even get to 61 without Kulanu.

This is entirely correct. Gantz is not center-left under any reasonable definition of that term. It's just that Likud has shifted so far to the right in terms of both the party's own policies as well as its preferred alliances with other parties in the Knesset that Gantz seems like a centrist by comparison.

At this point I just want to get rid of Netenyahu.

Oh I agree entirely. Gantz at least isn't going to go around making alliances with Kahanists.

[SCNCmod]

So Bibi and Trump really are sort of Brothers from another mother in many ways... Both stoke racial tensions for their benefits & use race-baiting fear tactics as an campaign strategy, both have at best questionable financial dealings, Both have been married 3 times, both grew up fairly non-religious- yet exploit the religious right to their benefit, Both took their highest office without winning the most votes...

...at least Bibi does understand how government works (Trump still doesn't) & Bibi has military experience (Trump faked an injury).

Is this close to accurate?

[Walmart_shopper]

So Bibi and Trump really are sort of Brothers from another mother in many ways... Both stoke racial tensions for their benefits & use race-baiting fear tactics as an campaign strategy, both have at best questionable financial dealings, Both have been married 3 times, both grew up fairly non-religious- yet exploit the religious right to their benefit, Both took their highest office without winning the most votes...

...at least Bibi does understand how government works (Trump still doesn't) & Bibi has military experience (Trump faked an injury).

Is this close to accurate?

Nailed it. But, frankly, the reason both have thrived in their respective countries has a lot to do with the fact that the US and Israel are very similar in all the wrong ways.

[Comrade Funk]

So Bibi and Trump really are sort of Brothers from another mother in many ways... Both stoke racial tensions for their benefits & use race-baiting fear tactics as an campaign strategy, both have at best questionable financial dealings, Both have been married 3 times, both grew up fairly non-religious- yet exploit the religious right to their benefit, Both took their highest office without winning the most votes...

...at least Bibi does understand how government works (Trump still doesn't) & Bibi has military experience (Trump faked an injury).

Is this close to accurate?

Nailed it. But, frankly, the reason both have thrived in their respective countries has a lot to do with the fact that the US and Israel are very similar in all the wrong ways.

But the younger generation here is far more liberal and secular than in Israel.

[Walmart_shopper]

So Bibi and Trump really are sort of Brothers from another mother in many ways... Both stoke racial tensions for their benefits & use race-baiting fear tactics as an campaign strategy, both have at best questionable financial dealings, Both have been married 3 times, both grew up fairly non-religious- yet exploit the religious right to their benefit, Both took their highest office without winning the most votes...

...at least Bibi does understand how government works (Trump still doesn't) & Bibi has military experience (Trump faked an injury).

Is this close to accurate?

Nailed it. But, frankly, the reason both have thrived in their respective countries has a lot to do with the fact that the US and Israel are very similar in all the wrong ways.

But the younger generation here is far more liberal and secular than in Israel.

The younger generation in America is maybe one of the most liberal in the West. Israel's is one of the least. Americans only have to wait and their country will be massively different. A huge number of liberal Israelis, on the other hand, have already left or are leaving the country to escape the future. I'm not sure that this election changes that, but there are very few people that are truly optimistic about the future. Turnout this year may not even get to 65 percent, in an election that nearly everyone believed was a referendum on the future in a way most elections here are not. People, right and left, didn't even bother showing up. The thing is that nobody here really believes in the future. It's all despair. The Haredim believe it,. The settlers believe it. Nobody else does. You feel that in our politics. People, right and left, have given up on peace, on Zionism, etc. In America I think there is a lot more optimism.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The "politician X is country Y's T***p" style of analysis is not exactly wrong, but it's kind of missing the forest for the trees. This style of leadership and political appeal has been growing throughout the world long before T***p surfaced, and he's really nothing but a particularly clownish manifestation of the same trend.

[SCNCmod]

Is there not a chance that soldier will support Gantz, given his military history?

[Oryxslayer]

Is there not a chance that soldier will support Gantz, given his military history?

Maybe more then usually, but its a likudite block.

[SCNCmod]

Is there not a chance that soldier will support Gantz, given his military history?

Maybe more then usually, but its a likudite block.

I thought in Israel everyone is required to serve 2 year in the military- if this is correct (which it may very well not be) why wouldn't the soldiers be sort of representative of the broader population?

[Babeuf]

Is there not a chance that soldier will support Gantz, given his military history?

Maybe more then usually, but its a likudite block.

I thought in Israel everyone is required to serve 2 year in the military- if this is correct (which it may very well not be) why wouldn't the soldiers be sort of representative of the broader population?

Young Israeli Jews are the most right-wing age group.

[DavidB.]

They're representative for young people, who lean to the right in Israel. Should help Likud. And could be NR's lifeline (but don't count on it).

[Velasco]

The younger generation in America is maybe one of the most liberal in the West. Israel's is one of the least. Americans only have to wait and their country will be massively different. A huge number of liberal Israelis, on the other hand, have already left or are leaving the country to escape the future. I'm not sure that this election changes that, but there are very few people that are truly optimistic about the future. Turnout this year may not even get to 65 percent, in an election that nearly everyone believed was a referendum on the future in a way most elections here are not. People, right and left, didn't even bother showing up. The thing is that nobody here really believes in the future. It's all despair. The Haredim believe it,. The settlers believe it. Nobody else does. You feel that in our politics. People, right and left, have given up on peace, on Zionism, etc. In America I think there is a lot more optimism.

So a renewed mandate for Netanyahu will be something like a self-fulfilling prophecy

[Famous Mortimer]

First election since 1996 where the two top parties by themselves won a majority of seats.

[Horus]

That went about as badly as expected.

[Oryxslayer]

So I just woke up, and not much has changed. Are we still waiting on military/prison/some outstanding stuff, or is the 65-55 distribution on Google final?

[Hnv1]

So I just woke up, and not much has changed. Are we still waiting on military/prison/some outstanding stuff, or is the 65-55 distribution on Google final?

The double envelopes (military, prisons, foreign embassies, hospitals) that can amount to 250K votes are yet to be counted. With Balad and NR on the edge it can be meaningful. in the worst case it becomes 70-50

[danny]

So I just woke up, and not much has changed. Are we still waiting on military/prison/some outstanding stuff, or is the 65-55 distribution on Google final?

Those votes will be counted tomorrow, then it will be final.

[brucejoel99]

So I just woke up, and not much has changed. Are we still waiting on military/prison/some outstanding stuff, or is the 65-55 distribution on Google final?

The double envelopes (military, prisons, foreign embassies, hospitals) that can amount to 250K votes are yet to be counted. With Balad and NR on the edge it can be meaningful. in the worst case it becomes 70-50

Is the best case 60-60 by any chance, or still about 65-55?

[Angel of Death]

I find it odd how some are thinking there is now less pressure on Netanyahu to follow through on his annexation plans just because New Right is out of the picture, despite the fact he needs the even more extreme United Right for a governing majority.

[Hnv1]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=317734.0

The new political discussions thread.

[danny]

Is the best case 60-60 by any chance, or still about 65-55?

There isn't much room for improvement for the Centre-Left, and on past elections this wouldn't happen anyway. The main possible change is the New Right getting in and Balad-Raam not getting in, either of these events changing some seats towards the right.

[Oryxslayer]

Is the best case 60-60 by any chance, or still about 65-55?

There isn't much room for improvement for the Centre-Left, and on past elections this wouldn't happen anyway. The main possible change is the New Right getting in and Balad-Raam not getting in, either of these events changing some seats towards the right.

There also is a low possibility of Kulanu passing under which does help the left, but is low like I said, especially when compared to the other two possibilities.

[urutzizu]

https://web.archive.org/web/20130305034635/http://www.votes-19.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=875

Found the Absentee/Military Vote results from 2013.
Nice to know that the electoral Commission hasnt updated their Website since then.

Raam and Balad got 1.8% of Ballots, from Prisons chiefly (surprise surprise)

This took their final result down about 0.25% from election day.

Then Bennett-led Jewish Home got almost double what they got on election day, boosting them by about 0.35%.

I adjusted it to the current percentages, and if (and thats a big IF) voters behave similarly to back then, then Raam-Taal will likely stay above 3.25% and the New Right could be right on knives edge.

But then again New Rights voters are likely a very different demographic to the one that backed JH in 2013.

[Progressive Pessimist]

What's the over-under on Trump taking credit for the right's victory? Will he go as far as to claim to be the Jewish messiah? I wouldn't put it past him.

[Oryxslayer]

A handful of votes got added in the last hour when I just refreshed. Con't be all the extraneous votes though, since it was only went up by a few thousand for the big two.