UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Conservatopia]

I think there is far more chance of a popular localist politician winning as an independent than either the Tories or Reform winning in Hartlepool.

That being said I think 2019 was a low water mark for Labour so they should fairly comfortably hold on.

[Conservatopia]

One potential huge issue for Labour is that the by-election is likely to be held on local election day (6th May) where the extremely popular Tory mayor of the Tees Valley (which includes Hartlepool), Ben Houchen, is expected to cruise to a landslide re-election. It's likely that he will have at least some coat tails which will significantly boost the Tory candidate's chances of gaining the seat.

Local politics rarely influence national voting, usually it's the other way round. It seems more likely that Labour's candidate for mayor will gain a bit from Labour supporters voting straight ticket who'd otherwise have voted for Houchen.

Spot on.  Plus it's difficult to have "coat tails" when turnout is only 25%.  Nobody cares about the metro mayors.

[Conservatopia]

One potential huge issue for Labour is that the by-election is likely to be held on local election day (6th May) where the extremely popular Tory mayor of the Tees Valley (which includes Hartlepool), Ben Houchen, is expected to cruise to a landslide re-election. It's likely that he will have at least some coat tails which will significantly boost the Tory candidate's chances of gaining the seat.

Local politics rarely influence national voting, usually it's the other way round. It seems more likely that Labour's candidate for mayor will gain a bit from Labour supporters voting straight ticket who'd otherwise have voted for Houchen.

Spot on.  Plus it's difficult to have "coat tails" when turnout is only 25%.  Nobody cares about the metro mayors.

I don't think any metro mayors have coat tails but I think there's already two-tiers of them. Burnham, Street and Rotheram do actually have some sort of presence. I'm sure Houchen appears in the local newspaper a lot, and is obviously more well-known than Jacobs, but because Houchen has no real presence or relevance to national politics I'd be surprised if many voters even knew he was up for election, at least before they receive their poll card. Bowles, Jarvis and Palmer must be even less well-known.

Precisely.  I literally live in the same village as Bowles (he used to be my councillor) and nobody has ever heard of him or knows what West of England Mayor even means.

Burnham amd Street, as you correctly point out, are much bigger names.  The role is as big as you choose to make it I guess.

[Conservatopia]

One potential huge issue for Labour is that the by-election is likely to be held on local election day (6th May) where the extremely popular Tory mayor of the Tees Valley (which includes Hartlepool), Ben Houchen, is expected to cruise to a landslide re-election. It's likely that he will have at least some coat tails which will significantly boost the Tory candidate's chances of gaining the seat.

Local politics rarely influence national voting, usually it's the other way round. It seems more likely that Labour's candidate for mayor will gain a bit from Labour supporters voting straight ticket who'd otherwise have voted for Houchen.

Spot on.  Plus it's difficult to have "coat tails" when turnout is only 25%.  Nobody cares about the metro mayors.

I don't think any metro mayors have coat tails but I think there's already two-tiers of them. Burnham, Street and Rotheram do actually have some sort of presence. I'm sure Houchen appears in the local newspaper a lot, and is obviously more well-known than Jacobs, but because Houchen has no real presence or relevance to national politics I'd be surprised if many voters even knew he was up for election, at least before they receive their poll card. Bowles, Jarvis and Palmer must be even less well-known.

Precisely.  I literally live in the same village as Bowles (he used to be my councillor) and nobody has ever heard of him or knows what West of England Mayor even means.

Burnham amd Street, as you correctly point out, are much bigger names.  The role is as big as you choose to make it I guess.

To an extent, though it also helps that GtrManc, Merseyside and even the W Mids are already fairly well defined regions with some (albeit fuzzy) sense of "identity".

Some of these other mayoral entities, though, are distinctly amorophous.

(what would "West of England" mean to you? Probably not what that position actually covers, for sure)

Excellent points as always

West of England to me would mean Thomas Hardy's Wessex.  Of course that isn't what it means in this case.

If the UK ever federalises I will advocate for a province named Wessex for sure
I think we have the "identity" necessary for such an entity.

[Conservatopia]

If the UK ever federalises I will advocate for a province named Wessex for sure
I think we have the "identity" necessary for such an entity.

Yes! With a parliament in Winchester maybe.

I was hoping Bath but Winchester would work too.

Also I think if we included Dorset and Cornwall we could also lay claim to the nickname of the "Sunshine State" a la Florida and Queensland.

[Conservatopia]

And another former NE Labour MP is running:

Tony Blair has just announced he is running in Hartlepool as a Tory.

I'm kidding, I'm kidding.  But it is kind of weird to have 3 former MPs running.

[Conservatopia]

Well, Williams has strong ties to the constituency and represented another Teesside constituency even if it doesn't share a boundary, so that would ordinarily count as quite local. Dawson represented a constituency in northern Lancashire, but is actually from the North East - except that he is in no sense local as he is from and based in Northumberland. Walker's former constituency might as well have been in Cornwall.

I agree - Williams should really be considered 'local' considering he's from the same metropolitan area.  It would be like if I ran for a seat in Bristol despite being from South Glos.

To be honest I've always thought attacks on candidates for not being from their seat is kind of dumb although I am glad we don't take it to the extreme that Americans seem to.

[Conservatopia]

I think there is far more chance of a popular localist politician winning as an independent than either the Tories or Reform winning in Hartlepool.

That being said I think 2019 was a low water mark for Labour so they should fairly comfortably hold on.

Do you still believe that?

In a word: yes.
But it might be closer than I initially thought.

[Conservatopia]

If anybody still cares the SDP appear to have been campaigning with a Tank.

Literal tankies.

I've heard various (and usual) rumblings that its not looking great for Labour; but it certainly doesn't feel the same way that Copeland felt- although that seat was a lot more marginal & had the issue of Sellafield

The (Tory) anecdotes I've been getting range from "spectacular victory" to "easy Labour hold".  Interestingly most of the people I have seen saying Labour will win think it will be more down to lack of Tory campaign investment in Hartlepool in the past rather than a good Labour performance.  Apparently Ben Houchen is wildly popular too with a lot of crossover support and the hope is he could pull us over the line.

For now I'm still predicting a relatively comfortable Labour hold.

[Conservatopia]

Apparently Ben Houchen is wildly popular too with a lot of crossover support and the hope is he could pull us over the line.

I've heard the same, which surprised me at first because I didn't expect him to be so well-known. The Labour candidate is not incredible but a bit of a non-entity too.

In your area I've heard that Labour expect to win the West of England mayoral race. I suppose even if Bowles was running it would make little difference based on what you've said.

Not sure whether I support metro mayors, to be honest. As a supporter of devolution and regionalism I want them to go further with it but that will not happen under this government.

Yes the swing of Somerset from Tory to LD has really complicated our path to victory here.  Furthermore we are running a non-entity, although Tim Bowles was a no-name too (my former councillor) and he won.  Tim Bowles had little impact anyway, merely counterbalancing Marvin Rees (mayor of Bristol).

I don't like the metro mayors.  My view on devolution is double-or-nothing.  Either Canadian-style federalism (yes please) or no devolution at all for England.  To that end I also support the ongoing abolition of County, District and Borough councils and their replacement with large Unitary Authorities.  For example I wrote to the govt in support of One Somerset.

The metro mayors are just this weird, patchwork halfway post between centralism and federalism.  And I don't want to go all Gordon Brown but I believe federalism is what we need.

[Conservatopia]

Apparently Ben Houchen is wildly popular too with a lot of crossover support and the hope is he could pull us over the line.

I've heard the same, which surprised me at first because I didn't expect him to be so well-known.

This seems to be the conventional wisdom. Given that recent polling suggested only 40% of the electorate could name him, I'm a little sceptical of this.

40% is pretty good when you consider how nebulous his role is and how few people can name even their MP.  And considering he only won about 10% of the electorate in 2017 (51% of 21% turnout) that's pretty good.

Still we'll see soon I guess

[Conservatopia]

Predictions would be better off in the main thread but hey ho:

Hartlepool: Labour HOLD by 4%.  Novelty parties go nowhere.

London: Khan 48% First Round, >60% Second Round
Tees Valley: Houchenslide, Conservatives HOLD with >55%
West Mids: Conservatives HOLD by 3%
West Yorks: Labour
West of England: Labour GAIN

Wales: Labour down. Cons, Plaid up.  Abolish gets 3 seats.
Scotland: SNP 2 seats short, Cons 2nd, Alba no seats

England councils: Cons down slightly, Labour up slightly, Greens, LD, Indys up a bit.  Bit of a wash overall.

Media Narrative: Tories in turmoil after missed opportunities

[Conservatopia]

This can't be blamed all on Starmer.

Sure maybe he isn't that inspiring but what it really comes down to is that the Tory brand is much more popular than the Labour Party's brand.

Vacuous idiot MPs like Russell-Moyle are blaming it on Starmer because they have ulterior motives.  They should instead think about why Labour's brand is damaged and why traditional Labour voters think they can still put their trust in Boris despite all that has happened over the last 18 months.

[Conservatopia]

*Rant warning*

Mandy, who used to hold this seat, blames "Covid and Corbyn".

He isn't wrong per se but he definitely isnt right either. Like the left he is saying this to advance his agenda. But this isn't a one off result - it's the outcome of northern areas still feeling like they are talked down to and patronised.

When unreconstructed Remainers (not Starmer to be fair) say that the Brexit vote was a "cry for help" or a way of "kicking the establishment" they belittle those who voted for what they actually wanted (Brexit) out of genuine concern over the EU's direction.  They act like the proletariat are just too dumb to know how to vote properly.

The writing has been on the wall for years with the rise of UKIP and then the referendum.  They should have seen this coming 10 years ago.

Labour needs to stop thinking that throwing money at what they call "left behind communities" will work and start examining the real reasons behind their 15-year long rot in the north.  Starmer possibly has the right idea with "progressive patriotism" but it must be a genuine heartfelt thing not just new patronising nonsense.

Starmer is more likely the solution than the problem.  Yet some want to ditch him now without any clue over what the right course would be.

[Conservatopia]

There's a non-zero chance of Labour losing their deposit in this by-election.  Would this be seen as "Labour in disarray" or would it not be all that big a deal?  When last did one of the two big parties lose a deposit at a Westminster seat?

[Conservatopia]

There's a non-zero chance of Labour losing their deposit in this by-election.  Would this be seen as "Labour in disarray" or would it not be all that big a deal?  When last did one of the two big parties lose a deposit at a Westminster seat?

Labour lost their deposit at the last general election in a few Lib Dem-Tory marginals, such as Winchester and Richmond Park off the top of my head.

Ah okay thanks.  So not a big deal then.

For what it's worth the odds have Tories picking up Batley.  It's probably all hype for now but that doesn't stop British Journalism® from saying "Tories favoured to win another one".

[Conservatopia]

Chesham and Amersham will be on June 17.
https://www.buckinghamshire.gov.uk/your-council/council-and-democracy/election-and-voting/election-timetable-and-notices/

Very close to June 21, why didn't the Tories just have it after they have eliminated all social distancing restrictions?

We don’t know for sure that they will lift all the restrictions on June 21st, but even if they do, perhaps it’s better for them to have the anticipation of freedom in the voters minds (whereas I suspect if they have it after people will quickly forget about it).

I mean ultimately it probably makes very little difference to the result either way and gets the seat filled quicker.

I'm not sure I like our candidate though.

[Conservatopia]

Chesham and Amersham will be on June 17.
https://www.buckinghamshire.gov.uk/your-council/council-and-democracy/election-and-voting/election-timetable-and-notices/

Very close to June 21, why didn't the Tories just have it after they have eliminated all social distancing restrictions?

We don’t know for sure that they will lift all the restrictions on June 21st, but even if they do, perhaps it’s better for them to have the anticipation of freedom in the voters minds (whereas I suspect if they have it after people will quickly forget about it).

I mean ultimately it probably makes very little difference to the result either way and gets the seat filled quicker.

I'm not sure I like our candidate though.

What’s the issue with him? Seems like a reasonably decent bloke from the articles I’ve read.

I dunno I guess I just wanted Nikki Da Costa

He seems a bit China friendly from his credentials too.

[Conservatopia]

The Tories should have thought outside the box and run Paul Halloran.  Alas.  At least our candidate is semi-local.

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

[Conservatopia]

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Do you disapprove? We only have two other regular O-UK posters.

No it's fine.  As long as nobody encroaches on my monopoly of R-UK I'm hakuna matata.

Can I ask why you are disenchanted with Team Blue?

[Conservatopia]

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Do you disapprove? We only have two other regular O-UK posters.

No it's fine.  As long as nobody encroaches on my monopoly of R-UK I'm hakuna matata.

Can I ask why you are disenchanted with Team Blue?

Well I'm not just disenchanted with the party. I'm partly disenchanted with the ideas - though they are dropping some of them. It seems fairly obvious to me that the policies which were absolutely necessary in the 1980s are not the solutions to today's problems. In that sense, I'm somewhat lost ideologically.

As for the party, well, I suppose it's been some time in the making, but their opposition to the EU I don't much like. More broadly, they don't believe in anything anymore - their sole purpose is to stay in power. Now, they have always been good at that, but there used to be, I think, something undergirding their positions; whether that was a belief in individual merit and the market or a more paternal, Butskellite angle - truly small c conservative. Now they will do whatever.
One of their great appeals for me was a respect for our traditions, and sensible government. The former was disgraced with the prorogation of Parliament and their reprehensible rhetoric towards the judiciary. The latter is, for obvious reasons, not something which Boris embodies. They're plainly incompetent and his Cabinet is just full of yes-men.

I'm very sympathetic to their anti-woke stance, but it seems to me that they're going about it quite badly. The university free speech law is an example (see Danny Finkelstein's article in The Times). But it is all perhaps best epitomised by the voter ID law they want to put through. It is, as David Davis said, an illiberal solution to a non-existent problem. It is the most irritating form of demagogy - making up (or exaggerating) a problem and 'solving' it with a restrictive law - which just so happens to disadvantage voters of the other side


All this said, if Angela Rayner is leader, I'm voting Tory.

I can't disagree with anything you've written Geoff.  However I would argue that maintaining power has been the core ideology of the Tories since the Corn Laws debacle rather than a new thing.  Therefore the Tories will do what is perceived as popular and merely vaguely aligned with conservatism rather than taking what Sir Humphrey would call a "courageous decision".  Of course I would prefer the Tories to go full PiS but that's never going to happen.

[Conservatopia]

Sunday Times has an article claiming

Stop right there.

[Conservatopia]

"Reform UK has announced it will not stand a candidate in the Batley and Spen by-election in a bid to boost the Conservative Party’s chances of taking the Labour-held seat.

Leader Richard Tice said he hoped a blue victory would bring about a snap general election and “hopefully the final nail in Labour’s coffin”."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/labour-richard-tice-batley-conservatives-keir-starmer-b939020.html

Their decision was made "in consultation with Laurence Fox’s Reclaim Party and Paul Halloran", so a joint decision not to stand among the "soft" right wing populists. 

Nominations close at 4pm local time today.

Total grifters.  They didn't manage to recruit Halloran so now they say "ackshully we wanted the Tories to win all along coz that will mean early election".

I shouldn't be complaining because obviously this is a big boost for my party but my goodness what a joke Tice is.

[Conservatopia]

I think we can all agree that hopefully MRLP beat out Anne-Marie Waters.

[Conservatopia]

Yes I could see anti-HS2 voting hurting the Tories a lot in this seat.

That said I reckon we hold it by 2-3 pts.