Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Putin's speech so far: Soviets bad.  I agree.

[jaichind]

This speech is going on for too long.  Get to the point.

[jaichind]

RUB weakens to below 80 during Putin's speech.

[jaichind]

This speech is going on for too long.  Get to the point.

I think, he'll end up ordering to throw out Lenin out of the Mausoleum 

The speech is just a list of Russian talking points over the last few months.  It is not going to convince anyone that already has an anti-Russia position.  He should get to what he is going to do and what consequences he thinks Russia will face as a result of what he is going to do.

[jaichind]

Imposing sanctions simply because Russia chose to recognise Donetsk and Luhansk would be a very odd (and unprecedented?) manouevre.

Yeah.  If Putin does this and then does nothing I think the split between the Western alliance and Ukraine will get wider. Ukraine will demand sanctions while many in the Western alliance will push back on that.

[jaichind]

RUB actually strengthened to above 80 at the end of the speech.  I guess some investors expected Putin to also order a military offensive against Ukraine which did not take place.

[jaichind]

Of course, if there are sanctions Russia will come back with "where are the sanctions on the countries that recognized Kosovo independence?"   I doubt there will be the unity in the Western alliance to impose any sanctions anyway.

[jaichind]

Pretty dumb point tbh. Assuming Putin does invade, of the last three presidents Trump will be the only one Ukraine didn't lose any more territory under.

You don't understand Putin 3-D chess.  He does nothing to Ukraine while his puppet Trump is in office and once Trump wins re-election puppet Trump will just hand the entire Ukraine over to Putin. 

[jaichind]

Of course, if there are sanctions Russia will come back with "where are the sanctions on the countries that recognized Kosovo independence?"   I doubt there will be the unity in the Western alliance to impose any sanctions anyway.

Over recent weeks and on the recent Munich Security Conference, the Western alliance actually made a very united impression. I just hope they follow through.

I am sure the power of the German business will make their presence felt.  I always have faith in greed.

[jaichind]

Biden announces new sanctions. The EU is on board as well.

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1495863415251906562

https://twitter.com/WOKVNews/status/1495863927716130818

These sanctions look like sanctions on those that operate in those two breakaway Republics.  It is like a sanction on Putin's brother (if he has one).  Ceremonial but not bite.

Sanctions I am interested in and has bite are
1) SWIFT - this seems to have been ruled out
2) Russian banks using USD - look out for the workaround of Russian banks still being able to use EUR
3) Nord Stream 2 - Clearly German business interests will come in to try to stop this
4) No trading of Russian debt on secondary markets - a lot of European banks are pushing back on this.  I understand why.  A lot of emerging market debt is traded as a spread on other emerging market debt.  So no trading of Russian debt means you mess up trading of other emerging market debt.

[jaichind]

What exactly are the borders of these “states” that Putin just recognized? It’s in contention, no?

Yes, but using by Kosovo comparison, Kosovo's borders are also under contention.  There are Serb majority parts of Kosovo that claim they are not part of Kosovo.

[jaichind]

Obviously, more to come, but...

More to come as in: We are now sanctioning Putin's brother. If you do not cut it out we will sanction Putin's cousin then Putin's cousin's dog.....

[jaichind]

I think the chances that Putin wants a conflict clearly has gone up.  But he seems to want to humiliate Ukraine so they cross the line of control so he can sell Russia as the victim to his domestic population and split the West.  If Ukraine does nothing he still gets a political win internally.  I think this works for him on the short run but is an unwise move by Putin on the long run. 

[jaichind]

I wonder if Biden and Trudeau will demand that the Russian peacekeepers show their vaccine passports first before entering into the breakaway republics.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1495896613386133512

Sounds to me like US intel is expecting an all out invasion today/tonight, and that not even Lviv will be safe from that. Or at the very least, they are treating that possibility as credible enough to entirely evacuate all the American diplomats that they previously evacuated to Lviv. I bet that is what those US planes and helicopters that were spotted near the Poland-Ukraine border were doing.

Why is the USA doing this?  Even in an all-out Russian invasion leading to the capture of Kyiv, a Russian assault on the USA embassy is tantamount to a declaration of war.  When the Taliban took over Kabul the USA embassy was not attacked.  If the USA wants to move its embassy to Lviv if Kyiv is captured by the Russians and the Ukrainian government relocates to Lviv that would make sense.  And then if the Russians capture Lviv and the Ukrainian government moves to become a government in exile it makes sense for the USA to move with it.  But it does not make sense to move the USA embassy to Lviv now let alone outside Ukraine.

[jaichind]

This has been such an useful thread in identifying the wretched posters on this site.

For a forum that is quite politically aware that pores over every intricacy and facet of US domestic issues, it's quite strange to me that the vast majority accept American "freedom and democracy" propaganda as the inalienable truth and refuses to even consider the notion that American actions paint a quite different picture than what they say, and that they're just a side in the great power competition, like one side of a football match where both sides try to game the system and cheat the rules to win.

America is hardly the white knight it claims itself to be, and NATO moving east is a real threat to Russia (right at a time when geographic armor makes for less than it used to be, and the only geographic armor Russia has is flat land on the North European Plain).
I've said it before but I'll say it again: Russia is refreshingly honest about how the game is actually played.

What threat is NATO to Russia? Does anyone realistically think that anyone in the NATO alliance would ever dream of an offensive attack against Russia? NATO is very clearly a defensive alliance, and Russia's actions in Georgia and Ukraine only continue to prove why the alliance is valid and necessary.

Things like USA interceptor rockets systems in Poland.  Yes, I agree that the intention is defensive and for the security of NATO allies  but as  Kissinger pointed out: “The desire of one power for absolute security means the absolute insecurity for all the others." 

[jaichind]

US equity futures rises the last hour to a level near when France announced a possible Biden-Putin summit.  I guess traders think that now there is a chance of an equilibrium where Putin gets a domestic win and the collective West and Ukraine do not consider the latest move an invasion. 

[jaichind]

BREAKING: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces de facto suspension of Nordstream 2 pipeline. Also, it seems like EU is about to impose very tough sanctions, including measures to restrict Russia's access to financial markets and a ban on trading with Russian government bonds.

https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1496078379426136064

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1496079416203657218

In other words, Germany will consider stopping Nord Stream 2 if the USA can come in and subsidize LNG for Germany to match the prices Russian gas would provide.  That would be great for Germany but I do not think the USA midterm voters would approve.  Still, if some weaker version of that takes place the clear winner would be PRC.  The PRC gets a weakening of a manufacturing rival saddled with higher energy costs and the PRC also gets a more desperate Russia that will have to shift their gas east where the PRC can buy at a lower price and further bind Russia to the PRC economy.

[jaichind]

If I were Zelensky I'd be doing everything in my power to get my hands on nukes as quickly as possible.

Look, in retrospect, it was a mistake for Ukraine to give up nuclear weapons.  But, as Putin said, it was also a mistake for Russia to allow the other USSR republics to break away in 1991 without a discussion of the national question and what should be the borders of each republic.  But what is done is done.  Any attempt for Ukraine to get nukes will clearly head to a Russian invasion.

[jaichind]

RUB is now above 79.  Financial markets clearly take the view that escalation has peaked and, while there is a significant chance of a blowup, the trend is toward de-escalation.

[jaichind]

Won't Germany just burn more coal?

They do not have enough coal plants anymore.  Germany's big mistake was shutting down their nuclear power plants which made them dependent on Russian gas.

The current situation is
Germany: Nuclear power is bad
Also Germany: Amm .. France, can you send me more of your nuclear power?

[jaichind]

RUB is now above 79.  Financial markets clearly take the view that escalation has peaked and, while there is a significant chance of a blowup, the trend is toward de-escalation.

Probably, because neither US or EU want to describe it as invasion. Yet, at least.

Well, Ukraine cannot describe it as an invasion because as per Ukraine Russia already invaded these lands in 2014 so they cannot re-invade the same area. 

It seems we are headed to these breakaway republics being annexed to Russia soon.  It will be a rerun of the 1810 West Florida Republic in slow motion. 

I think this is a mistake on Russia's part as it now limits their strategic space.  Ideally for Russia, they want a pro-Russia (or at least non-anti-Russia) Ukraine.  This move takes that option off the table.  While I do not think Russia will do anything soon this move pretty much locks Russia into the goal of eating up Eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper River in the coming decades and Western Ukraine will be anti-Russia for decades if not centuries.  These moves will be costly and risky for Russia and ensure at best a hostile Western Ukraine on its border.  Putin trades some short-term advtanages for long term costs.  My assessment of Putin as a sound strategist has diminished.

[jaichind]

RUB is now above 79.  Financial markets clearly take the view that escalation has peaked and, while there is a significant chance of a blowup, the trend is toward de-escalation.

Probably, because neither US or EU want to describe it as invasion. Yet, at least.

Well, Ukraine cannot describe it as an invasion because as per Ukraine Russia already invaded these lands in 2014 so they cannot re-invade the same area. 

It seems we are headed to these breakaway republics being annexed to Russia soon.  It will be a rerun of the 1810 West Florida Republic in slow motion. 

I think this is a mistake on Russia's part as it now limits their strategic space.  Ideally for Russia, they want a pro-Russia (or at least non-anti-Russia) Ukraine.  This move takes that option off the table.  While I do not think Russia will do anything soon this move pretty much locks Russia into the goal of eating up Eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper River in the coming decades and Western Ukraine will be anti-Russia for decades if not centuries.  These moves will be costly and risky for Russia and ensure at best a hostile Western Ukraine on its border.  Putin trades some short-term advtanages for long term costs.  My assessment of Putin as a sound strategist has diminished.

Well if what you are saying is true, Putin should just take the whole country.

Western Ukraine has
1) Very little if any Russian speakers
2) Influence by Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church

This means Ukrainian nationalism is very strong there making long-term Russian control very costly and not viable.

[jaichind]

At least, West supports Ukraine with memes

https://twitter.com/USEmbassyKyiv/status/1496115593149358081

Does not that argue for the fact that Ukraine is the real Russia and that Ukraine should invade Russia to achieve Russian reunification ?

[jaichind]

Equity markets and RUB surged after Biden's speech.  I guess the sanctions were less than what was feared by the markets.