Hawaii

[Alcon]

Not sure, but military traditions might play a role in that.

are pacific islanders living elsewhere in the us also pro-incumbent?

Who says it's pacific islanders doing all the swinging? In 2004, the most Republican areas in Hawaii are around Ewa, Mililani Town etc. Unfortunately, I don't know about swing.

Filipinos, then?

[Alcon]

   I had a teacher from HI one time and she said Hi was trending Republican because of issues like high taxes and poor management. Also I wouldn't be too shocked to see the Republicans gain a Congressial seat in HI or even gaining one or both Senate seats when Inahole or Akakia both retaire or die. In addition to this I read somewhere that 20 or so years from now HI could be as Republican as MO or TN.       

Wherever you read this was dreaming a tad.

Hawaii is fairly lbieral both socially and economically.  Foreign policy may be a different story, but on a whole, the state is very Democratic.

Both Congressional Districts trended nearly equally GOP this time around.  In 2000, Gore received 55% in the 1st and 56% in the 2nd.

I'd be surprised to not see Hawai'i strongly Democratic in 2008.  As Republican as Tennessee or Missouri?  I can't imagine why, without a change in the national parties.  A big one.

[Alcon]

  Look at states like NJ or CT 20 years ago and you could see the reasoning with HI.

Look at most of the country 20 years ago...CT and NJ have gone to slightly more Republican than national average to more Democratic than national average, to be fair.

I think we've seen more than a little national issues shift over 20 years.  It isn't that Connecticut and New Jersey went from conservative to liberal.  Social issues became more important, among other things.

However, Hawai'i won't become Republican unless the important issues shift or the national parties do.

[Alcon]

(Come to think of it, since Vermont is the only state to not increase it's vote total for Bush in 2004, aren't 49 of the states pro-incumbent in this instance?)

If we're talking percentages, didn't SD and NC also have their percentages for Bush drop in 2004?

Yes.

There was no state that actually had a lower Bush vote total (raw number-wise) than in 2000.  Vermont had the smallest increase, at 1.1%.