Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wiz in Wis]

Still some left in Portage County as well.

[Wiz in Wis]

Manitowoc nearly all in... still 1/3 of La Crosse out, smattering up north... still no new #s from MKE.

[Wiz in Wis]

Evers gained ~31,000 in Milwaukee County

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/1060062097860648960

Still waiting on New Berlin. I'm nervous. 

I hate to tell you, but New Berlin isn't even going to report 31k votes, let alone net them.

[Wiz in Wis]

Madison represented:

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1060065845685219328

HOT DAMN

[Wiz in Wis]

HELL YEAH!!!!! I'm so relieved I could puke!

[Wiz in Wis]

Milwaukee should be the favorite for the DNC in 2020.

PREACH!

[Wiz in Wis]

Guys, I wouldn't call this official just yet. Scott Walker is demanding a recount, and he might just slither his way through this.

He can't actually request this until next week at the earliest, after all counties certify the results. If it's more than a 1% margin, Walker is SOL.

[Wiz in Wis]

Couple things: 1) There is not enough time for Repubilcans to get a Consitutional Amendment on the ballot in time before 2021. It has to pass in two consecutive terms. That is unless they call a special session before January. 2) If there is a deadlock regarding redistricting, the federal courts will get the authority to drawn the lines, not the state courts. Look at Virgina for example.

Can't they just pass it in 2019 and then again in 2020? Certainly there are at least two sessions between 2019 and 2020, and of course special sessions.

Virginia's redraw was done by federal courts because a federal court struck down the original map. I was curious myself who does it in a deadlock during the actual, official new census redistricting, so I looked up Minnesota, and evidently they have a state court panel do theirs due to the deadlock.

Sessions in this case means terms... So 2019, and 2021, to be voted on in 2023 at the earliest.

[Wiz in Wis]

What were the gains/losses in the Legislature? I know the Republicans kept the majorities, I just haven't been able to find out the specifics.

R+1 in State Senate, NC in State Assembly.

[Wiz in Wis]

Evers and the Dems should really push for getting marijuana legalized first honestly. It's an easy way to get a tax increase in and get a lot more funding for the schools and roads and they might be able to get it past Republicans for a ballot initiative in 2020, which would help the Dems win the state too.

Yep! I was just talking about this with one of my students yesterday.

Um... Wisconsin doesn't have ballot initiatives. The most they could do is pressure the legislature to pass it and tax it... which, isn't a bad strategy. I don't think it's likely, but it would be popular.

[Wiz in Wis]

Even the WISC will vote against the power grab.

It depends on what it is I imagine. I don't know exactly how powerful the WI Governor is and what exactly he can do, but if the WIGOP is like the NCGOP, they will probably try to limit his input in election stuff and place restraints on his ability to freely staff his administration. Maybe also take away the ability of the executive to pass some kinds of regulations as well. This is all pretty typical.

Can't say I'm surprised at this. The Republican Party these days is a place where ethics go to die. Too many corrupt politicians who are drowning in the money and priorities of wealthy people and corporations. Not to mention the dangerous trend of anti-democratic tendencies over the past generation.

I agree with all that's here. I just want to mention that I feel it's important to remember the Wisconsin Governor is much stronger and has more powers than the NC Governor. The NC Governor's office is one of the weakest in the country. So there is more that could be taken away in a potential power grab in Wisconsin than there was in NC.

The reason that Wisconsin has, arguably, the most powerful governor, relative to legislature, in the nation is enshrined in the Wisconsin Constitution.. the line-item veto. And, I don't think this has to do with redistricting. The legislature move a lot of power TO WALKER and away from professional offices. For example, Walker, with the help of the legislature, dissolved a ton of citizen and professional boards in executive agencies that had policy-making power. Vos and Fitzgerald probably regret the sh**t out of that now. In fact, in 2015, they tried to take back those powers, and Walker vetoed the bills. I bet this is more about that... they supercharged Walker to fight the "deep state" in Wisconsin... and now they realize that was a mistake. We'll see.

https://legis.wisconsin.gov/senate/31/vinehout/news/columns/2015/governor-walker-s-vetoes-remove-legislative-oversight/

[Wiz in Wis]

Evers and the Dems should really push for getting marijuana legalized first honestly. It's an easy way to get a tax increase in and get a lot more funding for the schools and roads and they might be able to get it past Republicans for a ballot initiative in 2020, which would help the Dems win the state too.

Yep! I was just talking about this with one of my students yesterday.

Um... Wisconsin doesn't have ballot initiatives. The most they could do is pressure the legislature to pass it and tax it... which, isn't a bad strategy. I don't think it's likely, but it would be popular.

It does have Referendums though, which could be run in every county. For instance, Dane county overwhelmingly passed a Referendum on Tuesday to legalize Marijuana sales in the country, to be taxed and regulated like alcohol.

That doesn't overturn state law though. But, I'm not sure that Marijuana is unpopular enough with the GOP rank in file for them to care. That's why I think Evers is probably ok trying to work out bi-partisan legalization. I honestly think medical marijuana is likely. Recreational might be a bridge too far, but we'll see.

[Wiz in Wis]

Hot off the presses.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/democrat-claims-victory-in-assembly-race-after-new-totals-reported/article_78e796be-7547-530c-ad37-0d406677e76b.html

[Wiz in Wis]

Evers and the Dems should really push for getting marijuana legalized first honestly. It's an easy way to get a tax increase in and get a lot more funding for the schools and roads and they might be able to get it past Republicans for a ballot initiative in 2020, which would help the Dems win the state too.

Yep! I was just talking about this with one of my students yesterday.

Um... Wisconsin doesn't have ballot initiatives. The most they could do is pressure the legislature to pass it and tax it... which, isn't a bad strategy. I don't think it's likely, but it would be popular.

It does have Referendums though, which could be run in every county. For instance, Dane county overwhelmingly passed a Referendum on Tuesday to legalize Marijuana sales in the country, to be taxed and regulated like alcohol.

That doesn't overturn state law though... so state cops could still shut down any dispensaries in Madison... if that's how the GOP wants to roll. I'm not sure that Marijuana is unpopular enough with the GOP rank in file for them to care. That's why I think Evers is probably ok trying to work out bi-partisan legalization. I honestly think medical marijuana is likely. Recreational might be a bridge too far, but we'll see.

If the Referendum in Dane is any indication (>88%), and assuming even modestly proportional statewide support, recreational Marijuana could easily be passed in the state.

None of the refrenda are binding. It has to go through the legislature.

[Wiz in Wis]

Sounds like the chances of stripping powers from the Governor is increasing.

I'm still hesitant to call this analogous to NC. For many years, the Wisconsin government had a lot of professional, independent agency heads and boards that were not under the direct purview of the governor, such as the DNR. Walker and the GOP booted a ton of those folks and moved their powers to the executive directly. I think this is more regret than power grab.

[Wiz in Wis]

Do you see Highway-29 down there? It connects Green Bay to Wausau to Chippewa Falls to then I-94 near Menomonee. By many it is the defining line between Central and Northern (Northwoods) Wisconsin.



Compare that to the swing map that AG created:



You can see that road line almost clear as day on the map.

Also, Langlade will turn to the light blue shade, which is very good for aesthetic reasons. Sets up a clear pattern. If your county is losing population due to natural decrease (more deaths than births) you stayed with Walker... if you were doing better, you swung to Evers.

The places with the best economy... dumped the governor who was desperate to claim credit for it.

[Wiz in Wis]

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Wait, Walker unperformed his raw vote totals?? That's pretty pathetic given how high turnout was relative to 2014.

This suggests the following: Walker lost a small number of folks to conversion. Some Walker 2014 decided to try a new guy... BUT... a ton of Dems who sat out 2014 decided to get active in 2018.

[Wiz in Wis]

Following up on the raw vote concept. After comparing the preliminary numbers AP is reporting to the official 2016 numbers, you get the following map:



Counties in green are where Tony Evers got more raw votes than Hillary Clinton, and red counties are where Scott Walker got more raw votes than Donald Trump. White counties are where neither governor candidate outran their partisan presidential equivalent.

[Wiz in Wis]

I'd love to know which Trump/Walker WWC counties in western Wisconsin went for Evers this time around.

Counties that were Trump 2016 and Walker 2014 and Evers 2018:

Grant, Richland, Kenosha

[Wiz in Wis]

Apparently Evers called former moderate Republican governor Tommy Thompson to counsel him. I say, good move! https://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2018/11/14/governor-elect-evers-seeks-bipartisan-counsel-from.html

So, he's gonna govern like a Reaganite Republican. Yikes.

Tommy Thompson had to deal with a Dem legislature for many years... and his solution, generally, was to throw money at popular projects, scream "Go Pack Go!" a lot, and be drunk most of the time.

I don't think Evers will go down that road.

[Wiz in Wis]

Apparently Evers called former moderate Republican governor Tommy Thompson to counsel him. I say, good move! https://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2018/11/14/governor-elect-evers-seeks-bipartisan-counsel-from.html

So, he's gonna govern like a Reaganite Republican. Yikes.

Tommy Thompson had to deal with a Dem legislature for many years... and his solution, generally, was to throw money at popular projects, scream "Go Pack Go!" a lot, and be drunk most of the time.

I don't think Evers will go down that road.

The Great State of Wiscons!

Bless his heart.

[Wiz in Wis]

Do they think this will help them? They do realize that low turnout special/local elections have been favoring Democrats under Trump, right? And Wisconsin stands out in this regard.

I guess they think they would have a slightly better shot when it's not during the Democratic Presidential Primary. Pretty funny how they are for this even with the additional costs, but not for the special elections because they are too costly.

I also think going out of your way to try and "rig the system" is a good way to encourage your opponents to turn out and vote anyways.

[Wiz in Wis]

Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Another fun fact apparent in this map... the UW voting wards are among the least Democratic in the city, because UW students tend to be MORE CONSERVATIVE than Madison residents in general.

[Wiz in Wis]

Can't grab the article right now but Walker wants to schedule the presidential primary in 2020 for March instead of April. He said it's to keep the partisan from the nonpartisan for elections but in reality it's just that he's terrified of yuge Dem turnout against Republicans. Also slays his "fiscal responsibility" bullcrap he likes to spew.

Wouldn't Evers be able to revert whatever changes he makes?

The primary date is scheduled by law, so no, Evers wouldn't be able to change it if the legislature passes it and Walker signs it. He'd need the legislature to change it back.

[Wiz in Wis]

How the heck will they get away with this?

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1067862426580848640

Even if they try, there is no guarantee they do get away with it. As the article says, it's a little vague in the constitution but their supreme court already ruled a long time ago that redistricting is done like any other bill. Plus, Democrats probably have a good shot at flipping the state supreme court in 2020 (assuming they hold a seat next year), so they would probably reaffirm how redistricting is done if Republicans pushed it. Not to mention a chance that they would strike down a partisan gerrymander regardless of how the maps were enacted.

Good. The gridlock is going to be so interesting!

Also, I don't know why you'd want to anger the Dems in advance of 2020... Wisconsin didn't go to Trump by that much, let alone adding a "Don't let the GOP steal it again!" refrain based on sore loserish nonsense now.