Unless Pressley somehow breaks into the 30s among white college voters (and their share of the vote expands vs 2020) and black turnout is unbelievably high, I don’t know how he comes close to prevailing when the state is so racially polarized.
Ye my exact thought.
I was sort of comparing this race to LA-Gov 2019. LA and MS aren't identical, but relatively simillar demographically and politically, at least topline. If you look at JBE's 2019 win, he really didn't win by breaking through in rural areas, infact in much of the rural parts of the state he ran basically even with Biden. Most of his biggest overperformances of Biden were with urban/suburban whites in greater New Orleans and Baton Rogue.
Mississippi just lacks these substantial pockets of suburban voters that are actually swingable in extreme circumstances.
Even just going from 5% --> 10% with rural whites in the deep South is a really tall order for a modern day Democrat under any circumstances.
