Florida 2022 Megathread

[Frenchrepublican]

Does anyone seriously think this race will be within 7 points?. I would not be shocked if the DNC makes this their 2020 South Carolina, to be frank. Millions of dollars spent..... only to lose by 10 instead of 12!

I doubt that it will be a double digits wins for DeSantis as FL is too polarised for that

[Frenchrepublican]

Crist will get within 4 points of DeSantis. Fried probably cuts that down to the 2-3% range, but I don't see Dems flipping Florida in a Biden midterm.

DeSantis has a +20 approval rate so I doubt that he is going to underperform Trump, I guess that polarisation will make the race a bit closer than his approval rate would suggest but any democrat is probably going to lose by at least 6/7 points, and likely more. DeSantis could even win Miami Dade.

[Frenchrepublican]

Crist will get within 4 points of DeSantis. Fried probably cuts that down to the 2-3% range, but I don't see Dems flipping Florida in a Biden midterm.

DeSantis has a +20 approval rate so I doubt that he is going to underperform Trump, I guess that polarisation will make the race a bit closer than his approval rate would suggest but any democrat is probably going to lose by at least 6/7 points, and likely more. DeSantis could even win Miami Dade.

Florida governor races are always close, and DeSantis is too closely tied with Trump.That isn't a bad thing per se, but Democrats will be enthused to show up for him and Fried would be manage to capture that anti-Trump/DeSantis hate at the polls.

This is a very lazy argument...

Indiana 2012/2016 gov races were close so the 2020 must be close too...

The party which holds the power in DC can not win the VA gov race so Cucinelli is going to prevail in VA...

You see, the problem with these patterns is that they are true until they break, but they are not some sort of eternal rules

Also judging from polls you have a good number of voters who voted Biden and who approve DeSantis, I'm not sure how running on " a anti DeSantis hate message " is going to work with them, the anti DeSantis/Trump base is simply far too small to win a statewide race in FL