Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[LabourJersey]

The British government says it’s intelligence indicates that Russia will attempt a regime change in Ukraine

https://apnews.com/article/d6425c531f277b9dfb099511999822f4

This would disgrace the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians that rallied for and won their self governance eight years ago. Biden and Boris better toughen up immediately.

The last thing Biden needs at this juncture is to appear as weak and feckless as President Carter was during the Iran hostage crisis.  Especially in the wake of our less-than-ideal withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer.  For heaven's sake, he tried to present himself during the campaign as the Democratic equivalent of President George H. W. Bush with his supposedly vast foreign policy experience as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  I would like to see him prove it. 

Prove it how?

All the suggestions that people have for Biden "acting tough" are essentially suggesting that he escalate the situation. I can understand why people think that might be the necessary thing, but I don't see that being a politically successful thing.

The problem with comparing 2022 to 1979 is that the American public are now much less supportive of military intervention of any kind.

[LabourJersey]

Not sure if it's the right place for this but this Lithuanian MP is spitting pure facts



https://mobile.twitter.com/MatasMaldeikis/status/1485569942023983109

Based

As I said earlier in the thread: it's Europe, what state is not a construct?

That's generally the case all over the world, so the "it's Europe" part is odd. All states in the Americas and nearly all in Africa (only three exceptions) are ahistorical constructs, while it's Asia and Europe that have nearly all of the states with old (in some cases very old) historical roots even if the modern borders are different.

Egypt, Ethiopia, and......?

Liberia, maybe? Though that country was still a construct in the true sense

[LabourJersey]

I think the collective West is splitting into the Anglosphere (US UK) and the Carolingian Empire (Germany France Italy) on the Russia issue.  The Carolingian Empire will try to go for a deal.  It will be fun to see the Carolingian Empire does come up with a deal with Putin what the Anglosphere reaction will be.

Are France and Italy really as eager for a deal as the Germans? I haven't gotten that vibe from the way Macron is acting (and I haven't seen anything about Draghi)

[LabourJersey]

What I don't see is what precisely is the upside of occupying large swathes of eastern Ukraine?

Crimea I understand due to the strategic importance in the Black sea, and the most Eastern oblast maybe, given how many Russians living there. But everywhere else there will be large contingencies of angry armed nationalist Ukrainians who will wage guerilla warfare on Russian troops for as long as they occupy. Eastern Ukraine is not so resource-filled as to provide that much.

What, then is the endgame? install a more explicitly pro-Russian government in Kiev? I don't see the exit strategy here

[LabourJersey]

Russia isn't the only one with nukes. I don't understand why people don't realize we have more than they do. If Putin wants to bite off more fallout than he can chew, that is on him.

You say this like even one nuclear weapon doesn't bring an immeasurable amount of harm

[LabourJersey]

Sanctions won’t do anything, a rocket will be more of a deterrent than a sanction ever would!

How can you say that? Sanctions are economic warfare--they may not have the immediate effect that you'd prefer, but they absolutely do something.

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1497273163146801158

Based Boris.

Maybe a little Churchill in him after all...

Funny joke there, Alben!

[LabourJersey]

So I was just skimming through the Russia invades Georgia thread we had and it reminded me that that invasion took place around the same time as an Olympics in Beijing.  Weird heh?

The Crimea annexation and start of the Donbas war were right after the Sochi games too. Something about the Olympics gets Putin extra bloodthirsty.

I think it might be an extreme example of how nationalist sentiment ramps up during an Olympics (and to think it was originally designed to combat nationalism!)

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1510695804750766093

 He is  Rabid nationalist disguised as a Christian. Surely if Jesus's injunction against the wicked using his name in the furtherance of evil is true, then there's a special place in h*** for Kirill.

I have said for years if I'm going back to the Church it's either Catholic or Orthodox cause I frankly think Protestantism makes no sense.

This solidifies Catholicism for me.

It's pretty unfair to dismiss the whole of Orthodox Christianity just because of Kirill. Kirill's awfulness doesn't negate the whole of the denomination

[LabourJersey]

To link with the hot topic de jour, I wonder what Zelensky thinks of Johnson's ongoing defenestration.

He’s probably disappointed that the easiest source of aid is drying up, but I’m sure Ukrainian officials will be taking the opportunity to suggest Johnson should make one more round of commitments “to cement his legacy”.

Why would the next PM, whomever they be, not be as pro-Ukraine as Johnson? Johnson clearly likes to portray himself at this uniquely pro-Ukraine voice on the world stage, but I don't think in terms of nuts-and-bolts logistical support that a different PM would be that dramatically different

[LabourJersey]

To link with the hot topic de jour, I wonder what Zelensky thinks of Johnson's ongoing defenestration.

He’s probably disappointed that the easiest source of aid is drying up, but I’m sure Ukrainian officials will be taking the opportunity to suggest Johnson should make one more round of commitments “to cement his legacy”.

Why would the next PM, whomever they be, not be as pro-Ukraine as Johnson? Johnson clearly likes to portray himself at this uniquely pro-Ukraine voice on the world stage, but I don't think in terms of nuts-and-bolts logistical support that a different PM would be that dramatically different

I think our next PM will remain pro-Ukraine, but BoJo was often prepared to take bigger, “riskier” and more expensive steps because his political career was foundering and he needed short-term fixes. He also got to cosplay as Churchill, who he is particularly familiar with.

Fair point, but BoJo's love of Churchillian optics isn't unusual among Tories (at least in my outsider point of view, anyway). Plus whomever gets the job will want to assert themselves on the world stage, so I figure a Prime Minister Truss/Sunak/Patel/etc would do similar things.

[LabourJersey]

Well, the new Russian commander certainly is working hard to confirm the rumors about his bold (or ruthless) leadership style

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1582285715970613248

Getting back to topic: how is Ukraine going to deal with this during the winter? That's clearly the Russian goal here--a country without heat and power in a lot of places will find it tough to put up a fight.

And how will the West help Ukraine when it comes to this kind of infrastructure?