European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

The KPÖ (Communist Party) has presented Katerina Anastasiou (35) today as their frontrunner:



Anastasiou (left) is a Greek citizen and came to Vienna 15 years ago.

The KPÖ's official list name will be "KPÖ Plus - European Left - Open List."

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/service/newsticker/5577288/Europawahlen_KPOe-tritt-bei-der-EUWahl-an

[Tender Branson]

Popular TV cook Sarah Wiener will run as 2nd on the Green list for the EP elections.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Wiener

That's such a good choice that I might consider voting for the Greens in this election, after having ruled them out previously ...

[Tender Branson]

The Greens are polling at 9% in the new Ö24 poll, their best result so far in an EU poll (NOW are at 2%).

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Strache-gewinnt-nach-Papa-Monat/368980577

[Tender Branson]

The Greens are polling at 9% in the new Ö24 poll, their best result so far in an EU poll (NOW are at 2%).

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Strache-gewinnt-nach-Papa-Monat/368980577

Presumably the fact that it's been 15°C at 2000m altitude in February is quite helpful for them...

Maybe, or maybe not ...

Climate change is a topic which is certainly helping the Alpine Greens, as the glaciers are melting away in record speed. And the Austrian Greens have also shifted back to the bread-and-butter issues like this, or environmental protection or food safety etc. - while mostly ignoring the migration topic after their stunning (and well-deserved) defeat in the 2017 election.

On the other hand it could also be a polling error and there have been some scandals in the past week surrounding Green Party members.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ will present their list for the EU election on Tuesday.

Of their current 4 representatives, 2 will retire.

Harald Vilimsky (= Lord Voldemort) will once again be their frontrunner, reports the "Krone" (nothing surprising really).

Georg Mayer, also already an MEP, will run on the 2nd list spot.

3rd: Petra Steger, daughter of Norbert Steger, who once lost to Jörg Haider in the FPÖ leadership election in 1986.

4th: Roman Haider (not related to Jörg Haider)

Both Steger and Haider are currently members in the Austrian Parliament.

5th: Vesna Schuster (with Serbian migration background)

[Tender Branson]

Austria EU poll (Market for the "Standard" newspaper, Feb. 18-20, n=804):

30% ÖVP (+3% compared with 2014)
25% SPÖ (+1%)
21% FPÖ (+1.5%)
11% NEOS (+3%)
  8% Greens (-6.5%)
  2% NOW/I1E (+2%)
  3% Others (-4%)

Turnout: ~50% (+5%)

The poll also shows that Austrians are strongly pro-EU and €, possibly a result of the toxic Brexit talks.

https://derstandard.at/2000098517532/Einstellung-zur-EU-deutlich-positiver-als-vor-fuenf-Jahren

[Tender Branson]

If the FPÖ miraculously becomes the strongest party in the election, they would likely get 6 seats.

The FPÖ presented their list today and they would have a 50% women share (3/3) in that scenario.

With 5 seats, it would be 2 women and 3 men and with 4 seats it would be just 1 woman (Steger).

[Tender Branson]

Austrian teenagers are more motivated to vote than older people in the EU elections:

https://oegfe.at/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Grafiken-Schulumfrage_050319.pdf

Among all teenagers, 55% say they will certainly vote (which is higher than the 45-50% among the whole electorate, according to other polls).

The 16-18 year olds are the most motivated to vote (58% certain).

For 15-year olds, it's 51% and for 19-21 year olds it's 47%.

Good news for the Greens and NEOS.

[Tender Branson]

12 is very important in Austria for the EU elections ...

Next Tuesday, March 12, the election calendar will start.

Which means that at this day, people can already apply for postal ballots (which will be printed later of course, when we know how many parties have made the ballot).

Also next Tuesday, it's the last day for EU-citizens in Austria older than 16 on election day and with primary residence here to register for the election. Unlike all Austrian citizens, who are automatically registered to vote, EU-citizens who want to vote have to register on their own and sign a paper that they will only elect Austrian members to the EP ... to avoid double-voting in their home countries.

Also next Tuesday, the 1 month period for small parties will start to collect the 2.600 signatures to appear on the ballot for the EP elections. I assume the KPÖ (Communists) will make the ballot, but I'm not sure who else will because the Öxiteers are extremely split this time (3 fringe anti-EU groups have decided to run).

On April 12, the Interior Ministry will check the signatures and tell us which parties/lists have qualified to be on the ballot.

On May 12, the private PULS 4 TV will host their "elephant debate" of the 6 major frontrunners in the election. The public ORF debate date is not yet known.

[Tender Branson]

Thanks.

I was not aware that INSA also did polls in Austria.

It seems INSA polled both Austria and Germany. The national results make sense.

[Tender Branson]

Europe should be more like Spain imo

It seems someone deleted my post (why ?), but I think you have read it already ...

[Tender Branson]

New Austria EU poll (Research Affairs/Ö24):



https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Rendi-rutscht-ab-FPOe-schon-Zweite/370910425

[Tender Branson]

I am really rooting for Fidesz to be kicked off the group. Not only is it the right thing to do, to such an authoritarian party, but it would also keep the EPP further away from the harmful far-right rhetoric that has infected Europe recently.

Yeah, Fidesz is better suited for the FPÖ/FN/Lega-group rather than the EPP - even if it means cutting in their own flesh for the EPP.

[Tender Branson]

Only 5 of our projected 18 or 19 Members of the next EU Parliament are incumbents.

13 or 14 (depending if the UK delays Brexit and gets to vote as well) will be new.

ÖVP and FPÖ have 2 incumbents left each, the SPÖ one.

The NEOS and Green delegations will be completely new.

[Tender Branson]

Werner Kogler and Sarah Wiener (a popular TV cook) elected EP frontrunners for the Austrian Greens today.

  

This means all parties have now finalized their lists for the election.

[Tender Branson]

Ö1 (radio) has the first EU (radio) debate of all 6 frontrunners right now:



Pictured from left to right:

Johannes Voggenhuber (NOW)
Werner Kogler (Greens)
Claudia Gamon (NEOS)
Andreas Schieder (SPÖ)
Harald Vilimsky (FPÖ)
Othmar Karas (ÖVP)

[Tender Branson]

New EU poll:



https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hammer-Umfrage-FPOe-ueberholt-SPOe/372845510

[Tender Branson]

Ö1 (radio) has the first EU (radio) debate of all 6 frontrunners right now:



Pictured from left to right:

Johannes Voggenhuber (NOW)
Werner Kogler (Greens)
Claudia Gamon (NEOS)
Andreas Schieder (SPÖ)
Harald Vilimsky (FPÖ)
Othmar Karas (ÖVP)

There was speculation after that debate that the Greens and Jetzt/NOW would still find a way until April 12 to submit a common platform for the elections and to bury their differences.

Mostly because the Green Kogler and Voggenhuber (NOW) know each other well for 35 years (they were the founders of the Greens) and often said during the debate: "I mostly agree with ... Kogler on this issue" and vice-versa.

The next day, both said though that it won't happen and the EU elections will be fought individually from each other. It would also have been a major problem logistically to create a joint platform in just 3 weeks, because the Green and NOW party committees have already signed off their lists.

BTW: I watched parts of the debate and the Green Kogler and Claudia Gamon (NEOS) did the best jobs in my opinion. Schieder wasn't too bad either, as was FPÖ-candidate Vilimsky (for his base). Karas came along as a real political chameleon, trying to distance himself from the ÖVP-FPÖ government and acting as a very moderate European candidate. Voggenhuber was kinda in love with himself and arrogant.

[Tender Branson]

Angelika Mlinar, who was elected a MEP in Austria in 2014 for NEOS, is running in Slovenia for Stranka Alenke Bratušek in 2019. Mlinar has Carinthian Slovene heritage. I'm not sure I have seen other incumbent MEPs run in another country this year?

Not sure about MEPs, but Katerina Anastasiou- the frontrunner for the Austrian KPÖ (= Communist Party) - is a Greek Syriza politician.

[Tender Branson]

In Austria, small parties have 2 weeks left to collect the 2.600 signatures needed to be on the ballot here.

So far, the KPÖ and EU-NO have both ca. 50% of the necessary signatures collected.

The progressive pan-European "Volt" has ca. 40% or 1.000 signatures.

The CPÖ has ca. 25% and another anti-EU party (EU-AUS) says that collection this time is "tough".

I think that the KPÖ will make it and there is a chance that EU-NO and Volt could get on the ballot with a final rush. But it's far from certain ...

https://www.sn.at/politik/innenpolitik/unterschriftensammeln-fuer-eu-wahl-laeuft-etwas-schleppend-68079634

[Tender Branson]

1st SPÖ campaign video (click on German subtitles, translated to English):

https://youtu.be/x4ZdPDzwoTQ

"A Europe for the people, not big business."

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ's 124-page election platform and some of their new posters:

 

 

https://europa.spoe.at/unser-wahlprogramm

[Tender Branson]

New EU poll:



82% of Austrians support Chancellor Kurz on the topic of the Identitarians/Tarrant, while 18% side with the FPÖ.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Identitaere-schaden-der-FPOe/374872829

[Tender Branson]

Preliminary numbers from the Interior Ministry show that 6.415.034 people are eligible to vote.

That's the highest number in any election so far and up by 4.432 compared with the 2014 election.

Included in those figures:

43.818 Austrians living abroad have registered as well, as have 38.440 EU-citizens living in Austria (which is not a lot, considering there are some 750.000 EU-citizens living in Austria).

Final numbers are out on May 2, after a four-week period of objection, but the numbers won't change that much.

[Tender Branson]

So, the SPÖ has started their election campaign this weekend and at the event, Andreas Schieder (the frontrunner), said the following:

"The Kellernazis (old basement Nazis) are making a comeback within the FPÖ. This time, much cleaner and hipster and what's even more dangerous: they are not in the basement anymore, they are already on the ground floor."

https://www.krone.at/1898413

Today, a Facebook group called "Say Yes to H.C. Strache and Norbert Hofer" contained the following posting:

"This red bastard (Schieder) needs to be hanged at the next tree."

https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Morddrohung--Schieder-gehoere--aufgehaengt--41228615

The SPÖ has filed a lawsuit against unknown ...