2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Nyvin]

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1313272337073143809?s=20

I disagree with Real American Politics thesis in his tweet as Biden is winning more Republicans than Trump wins Democrats and Biden is winning Independents anywhere between 12-22 points. Yet the modeled request/return ballots look a lot like the polling ID.

Kinda seems like someone searching for what they want to see.

[It’s so Joever]

The current data in MI/WI is very concerning. I would be on the lookout for a potential upset.

[Dr. Arch]

The current data in MI/WI is very concerning. I would be on the lookout for a potential upset.

What current data? Everything looks overwhelmingly positive. What are you talking about??

[It’s so Joever]

The current data in MI/WI is very concerning. I would be on the lookout for a potential upset.

What current data? Everything looks overwhelmingly positive. What are you talking about??

Correction: The current modeling of the early vote by party registration.

[republican1993]

The current data in MI/WI is very concerning. I would be on the lookout for a potential upset.

Why is it concerning? how much votes need to be net out of these counties lol

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-results
The models are worrisome.

[The Mikado]

The current data in MI/WI is very concerning. I would be on the lookout for a potential upset.

What current data? Everything looks overwhelmingly positive. What are you talking about??

Correction: The current modeling of the early vote by party registration.

It looks like every man, woman, child, dog, cat, and marijuana plant in Dane County is casting a ballot. There's no way you can spin that as gloomy for WI Dems.

[Gass3268]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-results
The models are worrisome.

I have no idea what they are basing that off of, but even those numbers aren't bad given Biden is winning Independents by 12-20 points.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-results
The models are worrisome.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/nebraska-results

Thankfully, dems are leading in Nebraska to make up for their loss in Michigan

[LimoLiberal]

If I had to guess, the early vote modeling people are freaking about in Michigan and Wisconsin is crudely putting overall voter registration stats on the requested/returned ballots, most likely by age cohort or race. This would be very misleading. We know that Democratic voters are way more inclined to use absentee ballots than Republicans this year and vice versa. Older voters are still dominating in requests and returns, and their overall registration stats may be Republican-leaning, but we know for sure that those older voters are disproportionately Democratic because they've chosen to take absentee ballots.

Just look at this stat from tonight's Glengariff poll of Michigan:

Among those that have already cast their ballot, Joe Biden holds a 60-point lead of 74.6%-14.1%.

Even considering the margin of error and the possibility of Biden winning significant chunks of Independents and Republicans that number is simply implausible with NBC's model.

[Gass3268]

If I had to guess, the early vote modeling people are freaking about in Michigan and Wisconsin is crudely putting overall voter registration stats on the requested/returned ballots, most likely by age cohort or race. This would be very misleading. We know that Democratic voters are way more inclined to use absentee ballots than Republicans this year and vice versa. Older voters are still dominating in requests and returns, and their overall registration stats may be Republican-leaning, but we know for sure that those older voters are disproportionately Democratic because they've chosen to take absentee ballots.

I would agree with this, but I'm not sure where they'd even get age, race, or gender data in Wisconsin. Unless they are pulling directly from parties vote builder platforms.

[Holmes]

Targetsmart is garbage, mama.

[republican1993]

Targetsmart is garbage, mama.

are they off by a lot? i started using them today to check things out.

[Non Swing Voter]

I feel like it's better to just look at what counties are turning out big than the partisan makeup of each.

Also, to people freaking out.  The entire Trump strategy was based on keeping the vote totals low so that his base would make up a disproportionate share.  That's not happening.  The Biden strategy appears to persuade people and is much more focused on mass advertising.  Therefore high turnout is probably most beneficial to Biden. 

Trump based his strategy on keeping turnout down and focus on ground game, whereas the Biden calculus seemed to be that turnout would be high no matter what, focus on reaching people.  It seems that the Biden campaign made the better calculation because the early vote suggests high turnout.  I think covid is ironically making turnout higher because the early vote period is longer and there's more emphasis on it...

[swf541]

Targetsmart is garbage, mama.

are they off by a lot? i started using them today to check things out.

They were horrid in 2016, dont remember if they did much in 18

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The current data in MI/WI is very concerning. I would be on the lookout for a potential upset.

Did you, like, not read what we all said?

[wbrocks67]

That "modeling" doesn't look correct based on what we are seeing returned so far and where.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

This "modeler" was absolutely garbage in 2016 and was IIRC way off the mark in 2018 as well.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1313458585951776774

Morning!  Up to 4.1 million votes!

Virginia re-overtook Florida with the most votes at 714k.  To me this suggests Biden is going to win the popular vote than a wider margin than expected. 

The Dem ballot lead in Florida is currently at 175k.  Unfortunately still nothing much out of Orange or Miami.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AnnaBrichacek/status/1313449733256613889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AnnaBrichacek/status/1313449733256613889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Sucks that a county of 1.3 million only has 1 early voting location.

[libertpaulian]

My county!

https://twitter.com/BronaghTumulty/status/1313480046393384964

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/DavidPepper/status/1313501402963021826

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC: More absentee ballots cast in Georgia so far than in all of 2016

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/DavidPepper/status/1313501402963021826

talk to me when dems hit 40k in this county.