Kentucky - OFFICIAL rumors and results thread

[Sam Spade]

Folks, Kentucky knows how to count ballots quickly.  You'll get a lot further just going to the SOS site. 

http://electionresults.ky.gov/KyElectWeb/kes?AC=3&RF=0&AR=0&R=A01000000&L=1999&N=U.S.+PRESIDENT&RV=1040438&DV=1629845&TP=3545&TC=120

[Sam Spade]

Naturally, in early results from rural Eastern KY, Obama is getting massacred.

[Sam Spade]

CNN finally has their county map up.

Mostly slaughter, although Obama is carrying Fayette (Lexington) in very early returns.

Ron Paul is winning Bath County with some truly hilarious turnout rates.

I didn't know there were any Republicans in Bath County, actually.

[Sam Spade]

The KY SOS site has 36.4% of Jefferson in and it is at 49-48 Obama.  I'm sure the racial voting is quite ugly there.

[Sam Spade]

Now the way this should work is that Hillary will keep increasing her lead until some more precincts from Jefferson and Fayette come in.  and so on and so forth...

[Sam Spade]

About 18% of Fayette came in the KY SOS, which bumped Hillary's lead down to 54-43.

Obama leading Fayette 52-44 (civil servants, naturally).

[Sam Spade]

I wonder why there is a weird clustering of Dem results.  Like, all of the southeast has reported, but none of the northeast.

And also why some counties are reporting GOP results but not Dem results...

"Uncommitted" is heavily carrying Lincoln County in the GOP race, which I suspect is the typo of the day.

I'm not following CNN - in KY, the SOS is king and faster.

[Sam Spade]

87% for Jefferson.  Obama leads 49-48.  Pushes Hillary's lead down to 51-46.

[Sam Spade]

Owsley County - CD-05 is done (historically Republican).  Hillary 90%, Obama 8%, Edwards 2%.  Predictable.

[Sam Spade]

Now the way this should work is that Hillary will keep increasing her lead until some more precincts from Jefferson and Fayette come in.  and so on and so forth...

bump

[Sam Spade]

So, um, why does Edwards suck so much?

The sort of areas where he's prone to do well aren't in yet. Wait and see.

You mean Western KY right? 

Right now, the results are overweighted towards Louisville, generally.

[Sam Spade]

13%

Clinton 49%
Obama 48%

I understand "his" areas are coming in but should it really be this close?

Louisville and Lexington account for roughly 70% of the votes in on the state site with 22% of all precincts in.  Clinton is still up 54-43.  That should tell you what will soon happen.

[Sam Spade]

College educated number for KY:  64% of voters  (just FYI)

[Sam Spade]

Taking a quick look at some of the almost completed (or not almost completed) counties in CD-05, I really don't think he's going to reach viability there.

[Sam Spade]

Uncommitted is beating Edwards a lot this evening (including statewide). 

I wonder why...  (he asked rhetorically)

[Sam Spade]

It looks like the Edwards endorsement was a huge backfire.
This is a fantastic speech.

Obama again picked up zilch from undecided.

I don't know whether it backfired any.  I suspect it had no effect, actually.  Except to make Edwards supporters switch their vote in Uncommitted.  Predictable.

[Sam Spade]

Taking a quick look at some of the almost completed (or not almost completed) counties in CD-05, I really don't think he's going to reach viability there.

I rechecked the numbers here, he's well under viability out there.  He'll be lucky to break 15% in a couple of counties, much less the CD.

[Sam Spade]

Numbers-wise, the only real difference in the final totals is the % of blacks in the primaries of WV and KY.  Yes, it's more subtle than that, but generically that's what it looks like.

[Sam Spade]

Hey, walter!  How'd the prediction go? 

[Sam Spade]

Numbers-wise, the only real difference in the final totals is the % of blacks in the primaries of WV and KY.  Yes, it's more subtle than that, but generically that's what it looks like.

CD 5 in Kentucky seems to have an usually low number of white voters voting for Obama. It seems almost sui generis to me. I don't think West Virginia has anything to match it.

The SW coal counties are the closest really, and they are close in character to CD-5.  Truthfully, this is Al's territory, I'll let him answer the question. 

EDIT:  I should add - a lot of the part of northern Tennessee that borders this CD had very similar numbers to CD 5

[Sam Spade]

Numbers-wise, the only real difference in the final totals is the % of blacks in the primaries of WV and KY.  Yes, it's more subtle than that, but generically that's what it looks like.

I thought Kentucky Democratic primary electorate was around 14% black or so? wouldn't that have to mean that clinton did considerably better with KY whites than with WV whites?

The exit poll had blacks as only being 9%-10% of the primary electorate, iirc.