Era of the New Majority
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 05, 2024, 08:00:18 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Era of the New Majority
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 29 30 31 32 33 [34] 35 36 37 38 39 ... 50
Author Topic: Era of the New Majority  (Read 224126 times)
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #825 on: September 08, 2015, 08:04:09 PM »

I think you did the electoral math wrong, however. Sandoval should only be winning with 289 EVs, per my calculations.
Logged
Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,732
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #826 on: September 08, 2015, 08:05:27 PM »

I think you did the electoral math wrong, however. Sandoval should only be winning with 289 EVs, per my calculations.

2020 reapportiomment has been incorporated into this timeline.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #827 on: September 08, 2015, 08:11:24 PM »

I think you did the electoral math wrong, however. Sandoval should only be winning with 289 EVs, per my calculations.

2020 reapportiomment has been incorporated into this timeline.

Exactly. I haven't done the map for that, of course. Not sure I'd know how.
Logged
Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,732
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #828 on: September 08, 2015, 08:14:13 PM »
« Edited: September 08, 2015, 10:15:04 PM by Wulfric »

I think you did the electoral math wrong, however. Sandoval should only be winning with 289 EVs, per my calculations.

2020 reapportiomment has been incorporated into this timeline.

Exactly. I haven't done the map for that, of course. Not sure I'd know how.

In the image url for the map, there are 3 numbers after each state. The second is the number of electoral votes that the state gets. You still have to calculate the totals manually, but you can at least get the map you post to show a 41 in TX, or a 56 in CA, etc.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #829 on: September 08, 2015, 08:20:02 PM »

I think you did the electoral math wrong, however. Sandoval should only be winning with 289 EVs, per my calculations.

2020 reapportiomment has been incorporated into this timeline.

Exactly. I haven't done the map for that, of course. Not sure I'd know how.

Do you have a list of which states were reapportioned?
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #830 on: September 08, 2015, 08:22:29 PM »

2020 Census Reapportionment Results

Gainers:

Texas +3
California +1
Colorado +1
Virginia +1
North Carolina +1
Florida +1
Oregon +1

Losers:

Pennsylvania -1
Illinois -1
Ohio -1
Michigan -1
West Virginia -1
Minnesota -1
Rhode Island -1
New York -1
Alabama -1

I'm going to take this time to make an exciting announcement: I will accept fan-submitted maps for redistricting of CDs and LDs in the 2021-23 cycle. I already have a few (Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina in particular) drawn up but I don't have the time or energy to go through every single state and make adjustments. I will PM anyone whose maps I have selected, and anyone is free to comment or criticize on the ones I have created if I went wrong somewhere (CVAP, BVAP and all that jazz escapes me).

In case anyone is curious what the statuses for redistricting of the various states are...

Alaska: Independent Gov, Republican Leg
Alabama: Republican Trifecta
Arizona: Redistricting Commission
Arkansas: Republican Trifecta
California: Redistricting Commission
Colorado: Republican Governor, Dem Legislature
Connecticut: Democratic Trifecta
Delaware: Democratic Trifecta
Florida: Dem Governor, Republican Legislature
Georgia: Dem Governor, Republican Leg
Hawaii: Dem Trifecta
Idaho: Rep Trifecta
Illinois: Dem Trifecta
Indiana: Rep Trifecta
Iowa: Rep Governor, Dem Leg
Kansas: Rep Trifecta
Kentucky: Rep Governor, Split Leg (R Senate, D House)
Louisiana: Rep Trifecta
Maine: Dem Governor, Split Leg (R Senate, D House)
Maryland: Dem Trifecta
Mass: Rep Gov, Dem Leg
Michigan: Dem Gov, Split Leg (R Senate, D House)
Minnesota: Dem Trifecta
Mississippi: Rep Trifecta
Missouri: Dem Gov, Rep Leg
Montana: Rep Trifecta
Nebraska: Rep Gov, NP Leg (kind of)
Nevada: Rep Gov, Split Leg (R Senate, D House... but Sandoval's majority passed independent legislature-appointed redistricting)
New Hampshire: Dem Gov, Split Leg (R Senate, D House)
New Jersey: Dem Trifecta (Legislature Appoints Commission)
New Mexico: Dem Trifecta
New York: Dem Trifecta (Legislature Appoints Commission)
North Carolina: Dem Gov, Rep Leg
North Dakota: Rep Trifecta
Ohio: Rep Trifecta
Oklahoma: Rep Trifecta
Oregon: Dem Trifecta
Pennsylvania: Dem Gov, Rep Leg
Rhode Island: Dem Trifecta
South Carolina: Rep Trifecta
South Dakota: Rep Trifecta
Tennessee: Rep Trifecta
Texas: Rep Trifecta
Utah: Rep Trifecta
Vermont: Rep Gov, Dem/Progressive Leg
Virginia: Dem Gov, Split Leg (D Senate, R House)
Washington: Dem Trifecta (Legislature Appointed Commission)
West Virginia: Rep Trifecta
Wisconsin: Dem Gov, Rep Leg
Wyoming: Rep Trifecta


Here you go, darthebanc
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #831 on: September 08, 2015, 08:31:01 PM »

Map fixed.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #832 on: September 08, 2015, 08:53:24 PM »

In this TL Sandoval's most recent job was as Senator from Nevada. Otherwise, map looks good.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #833 on: September 08, 2015, 08:57:30 PM »

In this TL Sandoval's most recent job was as Senator from Nevada. Otherwise, map looks good.

Ech, specifics.
Logged
hurricanehink
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #834 on: September 08, 2015, 09:39:55 PM »

Great job finishing the 2024 elections so quickly! I'm curious where you're gonna take this, especially with the first GOP president winning in 20 years.
Logged
ScottieF
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 349


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #835 on: September 09, 2015, 03:35:32 PM »

I believe this makes it the biggest national victory for the GOP in 36 years, not matched since Bush/Quayle '88.
Logged
Horsemask
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,274


Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #836 on: September 09, 2015, 08:44:21 PM »

Love it. Looking forward to the Sandoval administration.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #837 on: September 10, 2015, 07:41:21 PM »

Love it. Looking forward to the Sandoval administration.

I do like that you and Free Bird, the two biggest Sandoval fans to comment on this TL, are both from Maine. I like your guys' style (I like Sandoval quite a bit myself).
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #838 on: September 10, 2015, 07:52:57 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2015, 07:56:34 PM by KingSweden »

Meet your freshman class of the 119th Congress!

GOP:

AR-2: David Sanders
CT-4: Scott Frantz*
FL-17: Rick Pallotta
IL-6: Mark Batinick*
LA-3: Stuart Bishop
LA-5: Ronnie Greely
MD-3: Nic Kipke*
ME-2: Eric Brakey*
MI-9: Travis Pill
MS-4: Chris McDaniel
MT-AL: Collin Tejada
NC-14: Tim Moore
NV-4: Amanda Kimball*
NY-24: Joe Robach*
OH-13: Luke Callum
TX-14: Dade Phelan
TX-19: Dustin Burrows
VA-10: Tag Greason*
WA-1: Jody Kyle*
WA-6: Drew MacEwen*

Kipke is tapped as freshman class President.

Democrats:

CA-40: Cristina Garcia
CT-2: Andy Maynard
HI-2: Kaniela Ing
MA-4: Jim Timilty
MI-7: Curtis Hertel, Jr.
MI-11: Andy Meisner
MO-5: Randy Dunn
MS-2: Derrick Simmons
NJ-1: Gabriela Mosquera
OH-15: Greta Johnson
PA-15: Adam Ravenstahl
VT-AL: Kesha Ram*
WA-10: Jeannie Meyer

Meisner is tapped as freshman class President.

The GOP is +9 on the map, meaning that they now enjoy a 249-186, a bigger majority than in their 2014 banner year and their biggest House majority since 1928.
Logged
Enderman
Jack Enderman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,380
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #839 on: September 10, 2015, 07:56:50 PM »

Love it. Looking forward to the Sandoval administration.

I do like that you and Free Bird, the two biggest Sandoval fans to comment on this TL, are both from Maine. I like your guys' style (I like Sandoval quite a bit myself).

I'm more of a Rubio, or Kasich fan myself, however, Sandoval would be a HUGE step forward for the GOP. So I for one welcome our new Sandoval overlord Wink
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #840 on: September 10, 2015, 08:03:29 PM »

Meet your Senate freshman classes of the 119th Congress!

GOP

ME: Garrett Mason*
MT: Chas Vincent*
NE: John Kuehn
OH: Frank LaRose*
TX: Peggy Bartlett
WV: Patrick Morrissey

Democrats

HI: Tulsi Gabbard
MA: Joe Kennedy
MI: Virgil Bernero
NJ: Gabriela Mosquera
PA: Luke Ravenstahl
VT: Tim Ashe
WA: Derek Kilmer

Republicans are +3 in Senate results, giving them a 54-46 majority in the upper chamber. The trifecta is complete.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #841 on: September 10, 2015, 08:04:14 PM »

Love it. Looking forward to the Sandoval administration.

I do like that you and Free Bird, the two biggest Sandoval fans to comment on this TL, are both from Maine. I like your guys' style (I like Sandoval quite a bit myself).

I'm more of a Rubio, or Kasich fan myself, however, Sandoval would be a HUGE step forward for the GOP. So I for one welcome our new Sandoval overlord Wink

All hail Sando!
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #842 on: September 10, 2015, 08:21:12 PM »

Incoming leadership teams:

House GOP

Speaker: Kevin McCarthy
House Majority Whip: Cathy McMorris-Rodgers
House Majority Whip: Luke Messer
House Caucus Chair: Lynn Jenkins (Tom Price leaves leadership after a falling out with McCarthy)
House Caucus Vice-Chair: Tom Rooney
Chief Deputy Whip: David Brumbaugh
Policy Committee Chair: Chris Collins
NRCC Chair: Pete Olson

House Democrats

House Minority Leader: Joe Crowley
House Minority Whip: Diana DeGette
Democratic Caucus Chair: Tom Bakk
Democratic Caucus Vice-Chair: Ben Ray Lujan
Assistant Minority Leader: Marc Veasey
Chief Deputy Whip: Joaquin Castro
Policy Committee Chair: Evan Low
DCCC Chair: Jaime Pedersen
DCCC Vice-Chair: Daniel Squadron

Senate GOP

Majority Leader: John Thune
Majority Whip: John Barrasso
Republican Caucus Chair: Roger Wicker
Republican Caucus Vice-Chair: Jerry Moran
Majority Chief Deputy Whip: Bill Haslam
Republican Policy Chair: Shelley Moore Capito
NRSC Chair: Chris Sununu

Senate Democrats

A lot of turnover here, as you'll see!

Senate Minority Leader: Amy Klobuchar
Senate Minority Whip: Michael Bennet
Senate Minority Chief Deputy Whip: Joe Foster
Democratic Caucus Vice Chair: Chris Murphy
Democratic Caucus Secretary: Tim Ryan
Democratic Caucus Deputy Secretary: Cheri Bustos
Democratic Policy Committee Chair: Tom Perriello
DSCC Chair: Eric Garcetti
DSCC Vice-Chair: Tim Keller

Schumer and Murray both announce they will step down to allow a younger generation of Democratic leaders take point, and with that Klobuchar becomes the first woman leader of a Senate caucus. Though many progressives wanted Murray to take over, she cited her age, fatigue and the need for a new lineup to take on the incoming Sandoval administration.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #843 on: September 11, 2015, 08:28:16 AM »

Since we're at a 10-year point for the timeline, a brief recap....

Presidents

44. Barack Obama January 20, 2009 - January 20, 2017
45. Hillary Rodham Clinton January 20, 2017 - December 2, 2021 (resigned)
46. Martin Heinrich December 2, 2021 - January 20, 2025
47. Brian Sandoval January 20, 2025 -

Vice Presidents

47. Joe Biden 2009-2017
48. Martin Heinrich 2017-2021 (ascended to Presidency)
49. Kirsten Gillibrand 2021-2025
50. Walker Stapleton 2025-

Speakers of the House

John Boehner 2011-2017
Steny Hoyer 2017 (died)
Xavier Becerra 2017-2019
Kevin McCarthy 2019-

Senate Majority Leader

Mitch McConnell 2015-2017
Chuck Schumer 2017-2019
John Thune 2019-2021
Chuck Schumer 2021-2023
John Thune 2023-

Prime Minister of Canada

Stephen Harper 2006-2015
Justin Trudeau 2015-2021
James Moore 2021-2023
Nathan Cullen 2023-

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

David Cameron 2010-2015
Ed Miliband 2015-2016
Ed Balls 2016-2017
George Osborne 2017-
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #844 on: September 11, 2015, 08:46:12 AM »

A Political Eulogy for Martin Heinrich

The Economist

The night of his election loss to former Senator Brian Sandoval of Nevada - a margin both larger and smaller than expected - President Martin Heinrich said in his concession address from Albuquerque, "It is with grace and humility that we must accept these results, and go into tomorrow with our heads help up high with pride, for we did the best we could." This simple sentence serves as an important microcosm of his short, fairly unremarkable Presidency: gentle in tone, encouragement for his fellow Democrats without being particularly inspiring, and awkward resignation to defeat.

When historians rank the Heinrich years, they will remember the most committed environmentalist and conservationist to sit in the Oval Office tangling, often unsuccessfully, with the worst droughts in American history and harsh winters that were so bad, they once took down a passenger plane. They will look at a man who had no single policy achievement to name his own over three years despite announcing a flurry of initiatives that will likely be rolled back with the stroke of a pen. They will consider his two greatest successes - managing the collapse of North Korea, which could have been so much worse, and reshaping the Supreme Court for decades, perhaps even generations, by forcing first the Michelle Friedland appointment through and then, in one of the ugliest political battles since the Clinton impeachment trials, getting another liberal onto the Court to replace the arch-conservative Antonin Scalia.

Democrats who are grumbling about the nebbish, wonky Heinrich campaign should do well to remember that their ousted President will likely by judged kinder by history than he is now. They should do well to remember that he was not elected to the office in his own right, attempted to seek the office at the end of a long, fatiguing 16-year dynasty of Democrats in the White House, and that the economy is entering a particularly grim-looking recession buffeted by a swarm of student loan defaults, a generation of Americans who have never known steady employment, and an economy where too much of income goes towards servicing debt. Barack Obama or FDR would have been hard pressed to win in these conditions. They should note that despite the collapse of two of America's long-term foes - Cuba and North Korea - during the Heinrich Presidency, the Middle East is burning again and Russia seems to be unraveling at the seams. His campaign's insistence that he governed over a world at peace was ill-phrased and failed to accentuate his actual accomplishments.

Democrats should also consider that there is nowhere to go but up. Even in their disastrous election last week, they only gave up three Senate seats, two of which were open, and protected several vulnerable ones. Were it not for their excellent campaign infrastructure, they might be staring at a 58-seat GOP majority in the Senate. They should do well to remember that a large number of Republican Congressmen elected in the last two elections are in Democratic-leaning districts or swing areas, and that these Congressmen enjoyed two GOP waves in a row. None of them have been tested on the fairly neutral House maps drawn earlier this decade in a year that is less friendly to them. And they should consider that despite drastically improving the GOP's position with minority voters, 2024 was the lowest-turnout Presidential race since 1988, with only 52% turnout - probably no coincidence. 2008 numbers would probably have kept Mr. Heinrich in office, especially since the race wound up being so close.

What Mr. Heinrich will hopefully remember is that he fought a tough race against the best Republican candidate in decades, in an environment with strong voter fatigue and a poor economy, and still nearly won. He has nothing to be ashamed about, either in his Presidency or in his campaign. There were no major scandals (other than some ugly news about criminal probes under his predecessor), no embarassments to the country, and he brought in an international coalition to prevent a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula. Whatever he chooses to do with the rest of his career, The Economist wishes him God speed.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #845 on: September 11, 2015, 06:11:41 PM »


Prime Minister Balls FTW

Anyway, I wonder if Heinrich will do a Cleveland... Unlikely, but you never know!
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #846 on: September 12, 2015, 10:19:23 AM »

The Sandoval Anomaly

The Economist

In two months time, the confetti will be falling and the crowds will be massed on the National Mall to see the 47th President of the United States take his oath of office. Brian Edward Sandoval, aged 61 but looking about a decade younger and with the casual energy and good looks of a movie star, will become the first Hispanic President, the second (and first Republican) Roman Catholic and the first Nevadan, though he is the second President to have been born in California after Richard Nixon.

As he takes his oath of office, he will do so at the head of a Republican Party that controls both Houses of Congress, enjoying in the lower chamber their largest majority in 96 years. In the Senate, a smaller but comfortable 54-46 majority awaits, the same margin Ronald Reagan entered the White House with. Many pundits have begun discussing about whether the Grand Old Party is enjoying a Renaissance.

In many ways, it is. Leave the Beltway and the numbers are even more staggering. In the last two elections, Republicans seize or flipped more than ten state legislative chambers and cemented their hold on dozens of others, including in staunchly Democratic states like Maine, New Hampshire, Illinois, Minnesota and Oregon. In gubernatorial elections held a few weeks ago, Republicans went a flawless 9-0, the first time on that map they had swept the Governor's races, including in Democratic stronghold Washington, where they won a race for the first time in 44 years as a moderate state treasurer beat an unpopular, scandal-ridden incumbent.

Before we hear talk like that of Karl Rove in 2004 declaring a "permanent majority" or now-Oregon Governor Greg Walden declaring that his House majority would last a "hundred years" in 2014, we should remember that both parties, but particularly Republicans, have in recent decades experienced banner victories only to get wiped out the next time around, whether it was the 2006 backlash to the Iraq War or the surprise landslide that even Democrats weren't prepared for in 2016. For many reasons, they are particularly ill-positioned this time around, despite their best electoral college result since 1988. Mr. Sandoval will have to work carefully to avoid this pitfalls.

First, despite, as has been noted, doing better than any Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988, Sandoval only won six more electoral votes than the second President Bush in 2004. Though he won a popular vote victory, it was a narrow won, approximately 50.5-47.2. Hardly a daunting mandate of the people. A few thousands votes shift differently in Florida or Ohio, and Mr. Sandoval would be watching the inauguration of his opponent, outgoing President Martin Heinrich, from Nevada. This was not a landslide or decisive win by Republicans.

That is not to take away from Mr. Sandoval's achievement. The electoral college has been skewed in favor of Democrats for a long time. Some analysts argue this realignment began in the early 1990s, though nobody disagrees it calcified since the election of Barack Obama in 2008. An electorate of growing demographic groups - educated white liberals, younger voters, African-Americans, Hispanics in the West and Northeast, single mothers - has been able to comfortably score 300-plus electoral vote victories over Republicans, heavily reliant on working class whites, evangelicals and a  slight but shaky majority of suburban professionals. As the GOP's natural base continues to shrink, and moderates continue to skew Democratic, Democrats rattled off four comfortable Presidential wins to cement a miniature dynasty in the White House.

That Mr. Sandoval broke this trend is impressive, and that he did it by ignoring the right-wing elements of the Republican base that reliably vote in primaries is even more so. Two things helped make this possible - one, that many of the most ardent conservatives that caused headaches for men like John McCain and Mitt Romney, or who powered Ted Cruz to the nomination, have either died (many born in the 1940s) or slowly left the electorate. The other development that allowed Mr. Sandoval to confidently avoid pandering to voters with views well right of the American electorate was that there were four or five candidates appealing to these voters, splitting up the right wing of the party. Mr. Sandoval was never going to be a more committed social conservative than Mick Mulvaney, he would never have the small-government credentials of a Ben Sasse or Raul Labrador, and he couldn't out-hawk Tom Cotton. So in a high-risk, high-reward gamble, he promptly chose to focus on his strengths and run as a pragmatic achiever, a proud moderate, and emphasize how he was able to turn liberal Nevada into a staunch Republican state with a dynasty of GOP Governors, two Republican Senators and a party that knows how to speak to Hispanics.

That last part is key. As whites becoming an increasingly smaller share of the electorate - and are likely to cease being the majority of Americans in about fifteen years - Republicans have struggled for years to figure out how a party dependent on the votes of conservative whites frustrated with the increasingly multicultural country can reach out to minority voters who feel unwelcome within the party. Mr. Sandoval has solved some, but not all of this problem. His leadership on immigration reform, thought to be a major handicap in the primary, turned out to be an asset as he turned the tables on his opponents by asking them what they were doing while he was solving thorny issues. His presence on Univision talk shows helped introduce him to a broader Hispanic audience outside of Nevada. Intrigued by the minority outreach program of his predecessor as Republican nominee, Mike Pence, he invited more Canadian and British Tory strategists to the United States to help him speak to Indian, Filipino and Chinese immigrants to understand what they were looking for and explain how Republican policies would get them there. In a moving speech in Northern Virginia, he stated emphatically to an all-Hindu crowd, "We may worship different gods, approach different texts to find a higher truth, but we all believe in strong families, in safe neighborhoods, and in the future of our children."

To be sure, Mr. Sandoval and the GOP benefitted from a low-turnout election, lower than the last four, and still only narrowly won. After sixteen years of finding excuses why they should regard decisive Democratic victories in the popular vote and electoral college as illegitimate or not a mandate, they should not be surprised if they run into serious opposition from Democrats. A bigger problem looming down the pike is a major split in the GOP that has not healed, even after a decade and a half out of power. Men like Mr. Sandoval believe in reforming government, making it more efficient, and particularly in Mr. Sandoval's case, co-opting policy priorities from the left and putting a right-leaning spin on them to disarm their opponents of talking points and political wedges.

Alas, there is a large and influential wing of the Republican Party that has no interest in this. Fed on angry red meat for sixteen years and fueled by a loathing of Barack Obama and a strong distrust of Bill and Hillary Clinton, they have been conditioned almost entirely to serve as an opposition party, defined by what they are against more than what they are for. The limited-government, low-taxes philosophy of the past still is there, but there is a strong nativist and populist streak, particularly among GOP voters born before 1970. As Medicare careens towards insolvency in the next five years and many social programs are running out of money, the expectation in this largely white, very religious and profoundly angry cohort of voters is that their benefits remain untouched, the benefits accrued to minorities and liberal supporters over the last decade be severely curtailed, and that the new-found social liberalism of America be gradually undone. Speaking to several grassroots Republican volunteers over the last week since Mr. Sandoval's victory, there are some who voted for him with a held nose.

"He's a Mexican," one voter who asked to remain unnamed explained. "Is that what's happened in this country now? Where the conservatives have to put a Mexican on the top of the ticket to win? Have we compromised our principles that much?"

This angry, frustrated wing of the party may become even more frustrated with the incoming Sandoval administration in coming weeks and months. Mr. Sandoval, well-aware of the narrow nature of his win, and the tenuous nature of the Congressional majorities Republicans hold, is not going to tack hard conservative, for no reason other than the fact that he wants to be reelected in four years, a prospect that will be very difficult considering that the white share of the vote will shrink even further and he will be watched carefully by the moderate Millennials and Hispanics who took a chance on him. Mr. Sandoval's election was not an ideological revolution like the one that powered Ronald Reagan to the White House in 1980 - it was a narrow win over a fatigued Democratic administration in a terrible economy. He knows, as well as anyone, that a hard-right governing agenda will be a disaster for the GOP in the mid-2020s.

This newspaper endorsed Mr. Sandoval because we sensed that he was keenly aware of this and would act accordingly. Here is hoping his own party gives him the chance.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #847 on: September 13, 2015, 10:38:19 AM »

November 2024: A few days after the election, Heinrich invites Sandoval to the White House for lunch and to give him a tour of the place. They hold a joint press conference where they appear remarkably cordial for two men who have just spent the last year attacking one another. At the end of the press conference, Sandoval states, "Most of all, I want to thank President Heinrich for his graciousness inviting me here today. I hope that, years from now, when we are both ex-Presidents, we can sit down at my ranch or at his place in New Mexico, have a few beers, and just talk about sports."

Though there are noises about minor voting irregularities, there is nothing to enrage Democrats on the level of a Florida 2000 or an Ohio 2004. There is a quiet acceptance that the loss was legitimate, though Amy Klobuchar alludes to a difficult road ahead when she says, "After the way Republicans behaved under Obama and Clinton, and especially the last year or two under Heinrich, there will be a very high bar for the GOP to reach to get Democratic support on most issues."

November 2024 (continued): Snap elections in Japan return Fumio Kishida and the LDP to power. A grim trend emerges in Korea of men from Seoul and other Southern cities marrying the more submissive and economically desperate "North wives" out of refugee camps rather than the more liberal, upwardly mobile native South Korean women. We are still about a year out from full reuniting. The Russian collapse continues, with two Navalny administration officials murdered in the streets of Moscow and local gangs start taking on paramilitary characteristics. General Rushnykin sends soldiers out to guard key nuclear sites in the countryside, lest they fall into the hands of rogue military officials. Heinrich continues to huddle with senior military and NATO officials throughout the month and sends dispatches to Sandoval to keep him in the loop.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #848 on: September 14, 2015, 08:48:40 AM »

December 2024: A bad snowstorm once again blankets the Northeast and Midwest. Sandoval announces that he will roll out his Cabinet selections in the new year after the electors meet to certify him as President. All the living former Presidents - both Clintons, Bush, and Obama - gather for a White House event with Heinrich and Sandoval. In a secretive meeting, the DCCC Chair Jamie Pedersen, DSCC Chair Eric Garcetti, and DGA Chair Gavin Newsom meet with DNC Chairman Sherrod Brown, fresh off of leaving the Senate, and DNC Vice Chair Jane Cowell, at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas to plot the way forward for the Democrats, known as "Project 26." Leaks indicate that it will closely mirror the successful 50 State Strategy from the Dean era.

December 2024 (continued): A particularly harsh winter makes the Russian crisis even worse, as civilians run out of heating fuel and food. The first feared event occurs as Chechnya announces its independence from Russia and the Russian military is scrambled to move against its forces. Mid-month, Dagestan also announces it will break off, further complicating the situation. Rumors out of Georgia suggest that the small state will attempt to retake Abkhazia and South Ossetia after sixteen years and with Russia on its heels. Matteo Renzi announces spring elections in Italy with his party rebounding in the polls after modest economic growth compared to the rest of recession-wracked Europe.

And now, for Sports: Montreal Impact win their first-ever MLS Cup, becoming the first Canadian side to earn one, after defeating LAFC on penalty kicks on the road. Inter Milan wins the FIFA Club World Cup over Asian Cup winners Al-Ahly 5-0, with Daniele Paolini scoring a hat trick. Baylor quarterback Nico Hernandez becomes the first Hispanic player to win the Heisman.
Logged
Rocky Rockefeller
Nelson Rockefeller 152
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 447
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #849 on: September 14, 2015, 12:13:45 PM »

Renzi's still in power 11 years later! That's pretty impressive for Italy.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 29 30 31 32 33 [34] 35 36 37 38 39 ... 50  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.09 seconds with 8 queries.