Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

1 critique: Ryan's district has a PVI of R+3. Even when Obama won the district in 2008, he won with over 64% of the vote that year.

Thanks, fixed it.

[Emperor Charles V]

This timeline is awesome! Please keep this up! In my opinion, the GOP deserves to be learn a lesson for nominating Cruz and hopefully this will be their cue to go in a more libertarian direction. 

[emcee0]

Great timeline, but I was really hoping for a Russ Feingold come back

[KingSweden]

Great timeline, but I was really hoping for a Russ Feingold come back

I'm actually looking to fit him into the timeline in one of two other ways... Since you brought him up, what do you think? Is Russ a future Secretary of State or is he Governor material?

[Türkisblau]

I could see Russ doing something diplomatic due to his post in the Great Lakes region in Africa.

[rpryor03]

SOS.

[Free Bird]

I'm predicting a crazy Cruz turnaround.

[The Other Castro]

I'm predicting a crazy Cruz turnaround.

Only if California, Oregon, Washington, and Minnesota somehow don't exist in this timeline

[hurricanehink]

I'm predicting a crazy Cruz turnaround.

The North Carolina update said Clinton won. Unless you mean Cruz in the future...?

[Free Bird]

I'm predicting a crazy Cruz turnaround.

The North Carolina update said Clinton won. Unless you mean Cruz in the future...?

All I am saying is that in everything I have read, the early dominating always turns around.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'm predicting a crazy Cruz turnaround.

The North Carolina update said Clinton won. Unless you mean Cruz in the future...?

All I am saying is that in everything I have read, the early dominating always turns around.

This isn't everything you've read.

[KingSweden]

I'm predicting a crazy Cruz turnaround.

The North Carolina update said Clinton won. Unless you mean Cruz in the future...?

All I am saying is that in everything I have read, the early dominating always turns around.

This isn't everything you've read.

Sorry if I gave away the ending to anybody early on in the TL (well, not the ENDING. Just the result of the 2016 election. There'll be plenty more elections in the future )

[The Other Castro]

I'm predicting a crazy Cruz turnaround.

The North Carolina update said Clinton won. Unless you mean Cruz in the future...?

All I am saying is that in everything I have read, the early dominating always turns around.

This isn't everything you've read.

Sorry if I gave away the ending to anybody early on in the TL (well, not the ENDING. Just the result of the 2016 election. There'll be plenty more elections in the future )

Given the level of detail and realism you've given to this TL, I don't think its possible to spoil a Clinton v.s. Cruz election

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Minnesota

Presidential: To the surprise of nobody - even the pundits who thought in 2012 Romney could make a play for Minnesota - the Gopher State is easily carried by Clinton, who wins 55-42, a higher margin than Obama carried the state by in 2008. Though the result does not surprise anyone, the margin does.

MN-2: John Kline attracts his first top-tier challenger in years, when State Senator Matt Schmit, a 36-year old from Red Wing, enters the race. Schmit challenges Kline as a centrist and runs on "exporting Minnesota common-sense to Washington," citing the state's strong job growth and well-regarded political climate. Schmit defeats the previously-safe Kline 52-48. D+1.

MN-3: Erik Paulsen, expected to cruise to reelection, attracts a top-tier challenger when Democrats persuade Bloomington-area State senator Melissa Halvorson Wiklund to enter the race. Though Paulsen leads in almost all polls until election day, Halvorson Wiklund defeats him in the western Minneapolis suburbs, where Cruz does particularly poorly. D+1.

MN-7: Collin Peterson retires. Considered a surefire Republican pickup at the beginning of the term, Republicans once again nominate 2014 nominee Torrey Westrom while the DFL nominates State Rep. Paul Marquart. Marquart easily defeats Westrom in what was expected to be a competitive race.

MN-8: After a return to politics late in life and now 72 years old (nearly 73), two-term incumbent Rick Nolan announces his retirement from politics. While the rural 8th is initially cited as a potential R pickup when he announces his retirement in January of 2016, Minnesota Senate Majority Leader Tom Bakk enters the race early and cruises to a surprisingly comfortable 53-45 general election win.

Minnesota Legislature: Democrats gain three seats in the Senate, holding all the seats of retiring members to increase their majority to 42-25. In the Minnesota House, DFLers pick up 18 seats to retake control of the chamber with an 80-54 majority.

At all levels, the DFL/Democrats overperform in the Minneapolis suburbs and push the state further left than was expected. Minnesota's House delegation goes from 5-3 Democrat to 7-1 Democrat.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 216
Cruz/Portman: 89

[KingSweden]

I'm predicting a crazy Cruz turnaround.

The North Carolina update said Clinton won. Unless you mean Cruz in the future...?

All I am saying is that in everything I have read, the early dominating always turns around.

This isn't everything you've read.

Sorry if I gave away the ending to anybody early on in the TL (well, not the ENDING. Just the result of the 2016 election. There'll be plenty more elections in the future )

Given the level of detail and realism you've given to this TL, I don't think its possible to spoil a Clinton v.s. Cruz election

Thank you for reading, I'm glad you enjoy the TL

[Maxwell]

wow. all that's left is Tom Emmer. RIP Minnesota GOP.

[Emperor Charles V]

Call me stubborn, but even in a Clinton landslide, I doubt she would be having these coattails like Obama did in 2008. I think instead many votes for Clinton would not be for her but votes against Cruz meaning people would vote straight Republican for other offices but Clinton for president because Cruz is the nominee. But then again, I can be wrong. But otherwise, great timeline!

[Person Man]

Call me stubborn, but even in a Clinton landslide, I doubt she would be having these coattails like Obama did in 2008. I think instead many votes for Clinton would not be for her but votes against Cruz meaning people would vote straight Republican for other offices but Clinton for president because Cruz is the nominee. But then again, I can be wrong. But otherwise, great timeline!

Its very difficult to win an election because you are not the person you are running against. With straight tickets becoming more and more universal, you could win big in one election, and lose the next.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Missouri

Presidential: The Clinton campaign invests millions in the St. Louis and KC media markets to try to flip the Lean R state. Unprecedented voter registration drives in the area bring up cold reminders of the Ferguson fallout from two years prior. Despite her best efforts, Cruz narrowly hangs on to Missouri, 50-49, his narrowest win. As the results from Missouri start trickling in during the evening, NBC's Chuck Todd comments, "If Cruz is struggling this much to win Missouri, I don't see the math for him winning the electoral college."

MO Governor: A tough contest between Chris Koster and Tom Schweich for Missouri Governor. Koster has the early advantage as Schweich has to defeat Catherine Hanaway in a primary, but the race is neck-and-neck going into election day. Koster's numbers are slightly deflated in Democratic areas due to his history as a former Republican, but he makes up for it with conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans when he ties Schweich to the polarizing Cruz, saying, "Don't give Ted Cruz conservatives another state house from which to launch their radical agenda." By a margin of only 6,000 votes, Koster holds the Governorship for Democrats.

MO Row Officers: Democrats do not enjoy the same luck downballot. Peter Kinder is reelected lieutenant governor in a landslide, State Rep. Shane Schoeller is elected to the open SoS seat (see below), and Senate President Pro Tempore Tom Dempsey is elected to the open State Treasurer seat. Democrats do manage to hold the Attorney General's office with State Senator Scott Sifton.

MO Senate: A high-profile Senate race - Democrats recruit SOS Jason Kander to run against first-term incumbent Roy Blunt, who despite only being in the Senate one term is a mainstay in the state from his time in the House. Kander's impressive military credentials and youth contrast with Blunt's straight-ticket conservatism. Kander campaigns frequently in central and southern Missouri to try to attract conservative voters, emphasizing his time in the military and his successful bipartisan ethics reform, then pivoting to ask, "What has Roy done recently?" In one of the nation's great upsets, Kander defeats Blunt 51-49, essentially the same margin as Cruz defeats Clinton by. D+1 (The Democrats have now won 7 Senate seats).

MO House: No incumbents retire or are defeated in either primaries or general elections. The entire delegation is easily returned to Congress.

MO Legislature: The GOP advantage is reduced to 23-11 in the Senate, and the GOP advantage is slightly reduced to 110-53.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 216
Cruz/Portman: 99

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

Cruz cruising for a bruising!

[Emperor Charles V]

Call me stubborn, but even in a Clinton landslide, I doubt she would be having these coattails like Obama did in 2008. I think instead many votes for Clinton would not be for her but votes against Cruz meaning people would vote straight Republican for other offices but Clinton for president because Cruz is the nominee. But then again, I can be wrong. But otherwise, great timeline!

Its very difficult to win an election because you are not the person you are running against. With straight tickets becoming more and more universal, you could win big in one election, and lose the next.

True. But some states (especially those with a ton of independent voters) have a lot of ticket splitters, such as Minnesota (remember, Klobuchar and Pawlenty both won by wide margins in 2006) and Wisconsin (Walker survived the recall the same year Obama carried the state and Baldwin was elected to the Senate). So I find it doubtful that even in a Clinton landslide, Paulsen would lose (Kline I can see losing though) or MN-07 going for a Democrat that's not named Collin Petersen (it is a R+5 district).

[Person Man]

Call me stubborn, but even in a Clinton landslide, I doubt she would be having these coattails like Obama did in 2008. I think instead many votes for Clinton would not be for her but votes against Cruz meaning people would vote straight Republican for other offices but Clinton for president because Cruz is the nominee. But then again, I can be wrong. But otherwise, great timeline!

Its very difficult to win an election because you are not the person you are running against. With straight tickets becoming more and more universal, you could win big in one election, and lose the next.

True. But some states (especially those with a ton of independent voters) have a lot of ticket splitters, such as Minnesota (remember, Klobuchar and Pawlenty both won by wide margins in 2006) and Wisconsin (Walker survived the recall the same year Obama carried the state and Baldwin was elected to the Senate). So I find it doubtful that even in a Clinton landslide, Paulsen would lose (Kline I can see losing though) or MN-07 going for a Democrat that's not named Collin Petersen (it is a R+5 district).

Maybe. Maybe not. Though maybe there are in still many Gypsy Moth Republicans in places like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and especially in Colorado and Nevada who still say they are Republican but voted for Obama twice and would probably do so again. These are the types that pushed the likes of Walker, Ryan, Gardner, Snyder and Coffman over the line but also Hickenlooper, Dayton, Bennett and Franken. I think they are very similar to some lingering Dixiecrats that still sent Democrats to congress as recently as 2008, but started to vote Republican on the top of the ticket since Reagan. Then again, the difference between Walker and Obama was about 10% and when you factor in turnout differences, it would probably be like 5%..and there's a 50/50 shot that it would be enough to save people during a wave.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

North Dakota

Presidential: Cruz easily carries North Dakota's 3 electoral votes, 57-41, a smaller margin than Romney's win in 2012 and Bush's 2004 landslide, but twice as large as McCain's 8% margin.

ND Governor: Democrats recruit former Congressman Earl Pomeroy to make a Gubernatorial run. Pomeroy runs a listless, disinterested campaign and is regarded as one of the few major Democratic recruiting flops. Incumbent Jack Dalrymple cruises to reelection, winning 54-30-13 in a three-candidate field featuring oil investor Jim Taylor (fictional).

ND Senate: John Hoeven scores one of the largest landslides in North Dakota history, winning nearly 80% of the vote against a Fargo businessman.

ND-AL: Democrats pick up a decent recruit in Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker, who is unable to do much of anything against the popular Kevin Cramer. Cramer wins 61-34, with an independent candidate taking the rest of the vote.

ND Legislature: Republicans lose one seat in the North Dakota Senate to see their massive majority cut to 29-18. It is the Democrats' third straight election where they gain seats in the chamber. Democrats lose two seats in the House, dropping to a 73-21 disadvantage.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 216
Cruz/Portman: 103

South Dakota

Presidential: Cruz wins this uncontested state 57-41, matching Romney's percentage of the vote while falling short of his raw vote total.

SD Senate: John Thune cruises to reelection over 32-year old State Senator Jason Frerichs, winning 64-32 over the young rising star. Frerichs attracts a surprising amount of support from the Daschles and Johnsons, as well as several campaign appearances by SHS.

SD-AL: Tim Johnson's son Brendan Johnson is recruited to run against Kristi Noem and he keeps the margin respectable, losing only 55-44.

South Dakota Legislature: The State House is the only action here, with Democrats gaining 3 seats to cut the Republican majority to a still-daunting 55-15.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 216
Cruz/Portman: 106

Nebraska

Presidential: Cruz wins the two statewide electoral votes with a 56-41 margin. He blows out Clinton in the 1st and 3rd districts, winning 59-37 and 69-29, respectively. Clinton, however, only narrowly loses the 2nd, which Cruz wins 49-48 and by 4,000 votes. The Clinton camp poured some resources into this district late in the game, and nearly replicate Obama's '08 feat of swinging the district into their camp.

NE-02: With the Clinton ground game in Omaha, vulnerable freshman Congressman Brad Ashford narrowly hangs on against Tea Party candidate Chip Maxwell, winning 50-45 with an independent in the race taking votes from both candidates.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 216
Cruz/Portman: 111

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

DC (forgot to do this one earlier)

Presidential: Ted Cruz wins a landslideClinton wins 89% of the vote to Cruz's 8.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 219
Cruz/Portman: 111

Kansas

Presidential: Cruz carries Kansas with 57.1% of the vote to Hillary Clinton's 40.8%. Hillary does best in the KC metro, managing to narrowly win Johnson County in addition to Wyandotte and Douglas. This is attributed to the attention given the KCMO area in the Missouri campaign.

KS Senate: Jerry Moran cruises to reelection over former Rep. Nancy Boyda, the only person Democrats could recruit to run against him. Moran wins 71% of the vote.

KS-1: After rumblings again that Tim Huelskamp would race a primary from the powerful agricultural lobby and Senator Pat Apple announces his intention to challenge the three-term Congressman, Huelskamp announces that he will "follow the example of others" and retire after six years. There are briefly rumors that Huelskamp intends to challenge Moran, but he does not. Apple is easily elected in the general.

All other members of the House delegation are easily reelected in the primary and general.

Kansas Legislature: Democrats win one seat in the Senate, cutting the Republican majority to 30-10, and Democrats win three seats in the House to cut the GOP majority to 89-36. Several of Brownback's ultraconservative legislators are defeated in primaries during a "moderate revolt."

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 219
Cruz/Portman: 117

Oklahoma

Presidential: Cruz wins every county of Oklahoma, as Republicans have done in every election since 2004. He wins the state's 7 electoral votes with 64.2% of the vote to Clinton's 34%, a thirty-percent margin of victory.

OK Senate: Jim Lankford cruises to an 77-21 victory over a random University of Oklahoma poli sci professor as Democrats effectively cede the race.

OK House: All incumbents cruise to easy reelections without any retirements or serious challenges.

OK Legislature: No change in the Senate, with Republicans maintaining their 40-8 advantage. Democrats win two seats in the House, cutting the Republican advantage to 70-31.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 219
Cruz/Portman: 124

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

RIP Cruz