Era of the New Majority

[OnlyAlb]

A civil war in Spain would certainly be interesting.

[KingSweden]

James Earl Carter: 1924-2021

Rosalynn Carter releases a statement a few days after Jimmy Carter's half-birthday to announce, "James Earl Carter, the 39th President of the United States, left Earth to go to God last night in his sleep. He went the way he wanted - in his bed, next to his wife, not hooked up to any machines, and without any sickness or ailment." He was 96, the oldest age reached by a President. His remains are released for public viewing at the Carter Center in Atlanta, where they attract large crowds, and then he is flown to Washington, D.C. to lie in state in the Capitol Rotunda before his funeral at the National Cathedral.

A selection from various speakers:

Former President Bill Clinton: "Jimmy was at heart a man of God and a man of peace, and that was how he lived his life."

Former President Barack Obama: "Jimmy Carter was a good man, a good husband and a good father and grandfather. I know that in politics we often want to discuss what was left as a legacy, what was given to the next generation, and that was it. More so than any achievement in his Presidency, or post-Presidency, even a Nobel Prize, the most important thing about Jimmy Carter was that he was a good man, a good husband, and a good father and grandfather."

Carter's remains are then flown to Plains for burial, where his grandson, Georgia Governor Jason Carter, speaks along with a handful of survivors from the Carter administration. It is a subdued affair, and then Carter is buried in the front lawn of the family residence.

Publications remark on Carter's passing and the longevity of his post-Presidency, which at forty years and two months is the longest in history. The Economist obituary reads: "A man more accomplished after his Presidency than during, Carter came to embody the ideal of a statesman. He was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize and became greatly respected for his cool head and good nature around the globe."

The New York Times: "It is hard today for anyone younger than fifty to understand the significance of Jimmy Carter, to understand the vitriol he earned for many years from the right and the frustrations he caused on the left. He was a Southern Evangelical at a time when there were still many of those in the Democratic Party, and he left conservative Christians dismayed and never fully earned the trust of liberals in Northeastern enclaves, paving the way for the Reagan Revolution."

The Wall Street Journal: "More conservative and, frankly, more competent than most Republicans care to admit, Carter was the last true Southern Democrat, even more so than Bill Clinton or Al Gore. He is not a figure who will tower over American history, with four short years as President and with the legacy of his administration not regarded as well as the good and decent man at its center. However, Carter rehabilitated himself remarkably in his later years, serving his nearly half-century outside of the White House as a statesman and public figure."

[Türkisblau]

[KingSweden]

April 2021: President Clinton is back to full responsibilities at the White House, though she is still delegating work to Heinrich and Feingold and working much shorter days than before. Another good jobs report is somewhat subdued by 1.1% growth in Q1 of 2021, though harsh January weather is blamed partially for the slowdown, though economists note that growth has stalled below 1.5% for several quarters in a row now, almost every single one since the recession of 2018/19 ended. A significantly reduced transportation package focused on highway funding and contracting reform passes the House, now needing to be reconciled with the much more ambitious Senate package. Speaker McCarthy notes ominously, "This isn't our starting offer, this is our final offer."

April 2021 (continued): Catalonia votes to secede from Spain 60-40. A massive celebration in downtown Barcelona is marred by a violent police response after Junquerias declares "steps towards independence." All NATO and EU nations announce that they will not recognize Catalonia, and Rivera refers to the referendum and its results as "illegal under Spanish law." Basque separatists stage a massive rally a week later in solidarity with Catalonia. EU leaders hold two emergency summits in Brussels, and an emergency NATO meeting is held in Copenhagen. A massive earthquake shakes the Philippines, killing 3,000 people.

And now, for Sports: A Cinderella run by Xavier ends in the school's first NCAA Championship, which they win over North Carolina in a 2OT final. Xavier defeated Gonzaga in the Final Four to reach the game, and NC beat Alabama.

[KingSweden]

May 2021: Dick Cheney passes away at the age of 80 and is buried in Wyoming in a modest service attended by several Republican officeholders and Bush administration veterans. Martin Heinrich attends but does not speak, and when he is criticized by liberal pundits and bloggers he states, "I disagreed with Vice President Cheney just about everything, but he was the Vice President just like I am now, and he earned the right to have the sitting VP at his funeral." A considerably smaller transportation package than originally envisioned passes Congress and is signed into law by Hillary Clinton.

The first big scandal of the Clinton administration breaks when it is revealed that the Venezuelan diaspora directly funded hit squads of anti-chavista rebels in Caracas and other large cities and formed a parallel power structure to the unity government. Despite Clinton claiming not to have known, there is evidence of CIA coordination and it infuriates many grassroots supporters on both the right and the left and is awkward for allies.

May 2021 (continued): Nobody has seen Vladimir Putin since February and rumors are starting to spread that he has died. TIME runs a cover story with the question "Who is Running Russia?" Reports emerge of cracks between the more liberal Medvedev and the "deep state," with Sergei Lavrov emerging as a potential compromise candidate to run the country even though Putin's status is unconfirmed. The Spanish Army rolls into Barcelona to put down the violence, which only gets worse with an overly heavy-handed response. Opinion polls both in Catalonia and the rest of Spain show that Albert Rivera is the most unpopular Prime Minister post-Franco and rumors start to spread about a palace coup by other leaders in the unity government to topple him. Tunisia elects a completely secular Cabinet after successful Parliamentary elections, remaining an Arab success story.

And now, for Sports: In UEFA Champions League, Liverpool defeats Tottenham Hotspur in one semi on penalties after two scoreless draws to advance to the final. In the other semi, Paris St. Germain defeats Chelsea on aggregate to prevent the Lions from going to a fourth straight final and will face Liverpool. In the Europa League final, PSV Eindhoven defeats Bayer Leverkusen in added time to win the competition.

In domestic leagues, Everton shocks the world by edging reigning champion Liverpool by one point on the final table after a six-win streak to close the season to win the Premier League. (Manchester United and Chelsea take third and fourth places). PSG wins the Ligue 1 once again, Inter Milan wins Serie A for the first time in over a decade, Bayern Munich takes the Bundesliga, and Atletico Madrid wins La Liga.

[KingSweden]

2020 Census Reapportionment Results

Gainers:

Texas +3
California +1
Colorado +1
Virginia +1
North Carolina +1
Florida +1
Oregon +1

Losers:

Pennsylvania -1
Illinois -1
Ohio -1
Michigan -1
West Virginia -1
Minnesota -1
Rhode Island -1
New York -1
Alabama -1

I'm going to take this time to make an exciting announcement: I will accept fan-submitted maps for redistricting of CDs and LDs in the 2021-23 cycle. I already have a few (Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina in particular) drawn up but I don't have the time or energy to go through every single state and make adjustments. I will PM anyone whose maps I have selected, and anyone is free to comment or criticize on the ones I have created if I went wrong somewhere (CVAP, BVAP and all that jazz escapes me).

In case anyone is curious what the statuses for redistricting of the various states are...

Alaska: Independent Gov, Republican Leg
Alabama: Republican Trifecta
Arizona: Redistricting Commission
Arkansas: Republican Trifecta
California: Redistricting Commission
Colorado: Republican Governor, Dem Legislature
Connecticut: Democratic Trifecta
Delaware: Democratic Trifecta
Florida: Dem Governor, Republican Legislature
Georgia: Dem Governor, Republican Leg
Hawaii: Dem Trifecta
Idaho: Rep Trifecta
Illinois: Dem Trifecta
Indiana: Rep Trifecta
Iowa: Rep Governor, Dem Leg
Kansas: Rep Trifecta
Kentucky: Rep Governor, Split Leg (R Senate, D House)
Louisiana: Rep Trifecta
Maine: Dem Governor, Split Leg (R Senate, D House)
Maryland: Dem Trifecta
Mass: Rep Gov, Dem Leg
Michigan: Dem Gov, Split Leg (R Senate, D House)
Minnesota: Dem Trifecta
Mississippi: Rep Trifecta
Missouri: Dem Gov, Rep Leg
Montana: Rep Trifecta
Nebraska: Rep Gov, NP Leg (kind of)
Nevada: Rep Gov, Split Leg (R Senate, D House... but Sandoval's majority passed independent legislature-appointed redistricting)
New Hampshire: Dem Gov, Split Leg (R Senate, D House)
New Jersey: Dem Trifecta (Legislature Appoints Commission)
New Mexico: Dem Trifecta
New York: Dem Trifecta (Legislature Appoints Commission)
North Carolina: Dem Gov, Rep Leg
North Dakota: Rep Trifecta
Ohio: Rep Trifecta
Oklahoma: Rep Trifecta
Oregon: Dem Trifecta
Pennsylvania: Dem Gov, Rep Leg
Rhode Island: Dem Trifecta
South Carolina: Rep Trifecta
South Dakota: Rep Trifecta
Tennessee: Rep Trifecta
Texas: Rep Trifecta
Utah: Rep Trifecta
Vermont: Rep Gov, Dem/Progressive Leg
Virginia: Dem Gov, Split Leg (D Senate, R House)
Washington: Dem Trifecta (Legislature Appointed Commission)
West Virginia: Rep Trifecta
Wisconsin: Dem Gov, Rep Leg
Wyoming: Rep Trifecta

[KingSweden]

June 2021: What will be the hottest summer on record begins, with drought conditions in 20 states exacerbated by a warm summer. In Washington state, there are seventeen 100+ degree days in a row on the west side of the mountains, with even hotter temperatures during a longer stretch on the drier eastern side. Texas, New Mexico and Arizona once again bear the worst of the heat wave, with Governor Doug Ducey officially rationing water to 25% of peak usage. A rush to buy water in Midland, Texas turns into an ugly brawl that has to be broken up by police. Both Hillary Clinton and Martin Heinrich use this as part of their push to combat climate change in the second term. The CIA-Venezuela scandal continues to unfold (see below). The May jobs report shows 200,000 jobs created and the Fed raises their benchmark rate by 0.025.

June 2021 (continued): A coup in Syria! After the Shiite military seized power in Iraq a few months earlier, the slowly-collapsing Syrian government is toppled by the army, which announces a unity government to try to retake the Sunni paramilitary-controlled east. Assad flees to Russia along with his family. In Venezuela, angry left-wing militants up their campaign in the cities, and four bombings are carried out in Bogota. The situation there looks sure to destabilize further. Rivera strikes a deal in Spain with Madrid-friendly Basque nationalists to devolve further powers to the "states of Spain" as suggested in early constitutional drafts, and pledges to make Parliamentary reforms that allow proportional lists and a federal Senate. Catalonian hardliners refuse, and stage a massive bombing campaign against Spanish tanks and armored vehicles in Barcelona.

And now, for Sports: Liverpool defeats PSG in the UCL Final at San Siro in a tight match, with the game 0-0 until stoppage, when midfielder Jordan Henderson scores with less than a minute left in the game. The win gives Liverpool their sixth European Cup and first since the Miracle in Istanbul in 2005. In the NBA, the Minnesota Timberwolves go to their second straight NBA Final and defeat the Milwaukee Bucks in a MN vs. WI series dubbed the "Midwest Showdown." In seven games, the Wolves emerge triumphant in what is termed one of the best series of all time, including two overtime games and three buzzer-beaters to either win the game or send it to OT. It is the first championship for the Wolves in history, coming only a few months after the Vikings lost the Super Bowl and Minnesota United FC won the MLS Cup. In the NHL Stanley Cup final, the Edmonton Oilers, led by Connor McDavid, defeat Jack Eichel and the Buffalo Sabres in six games after starting the series down 2-0. It is a matchup between the two best young players in the NHL.

[KingSweden]

2021 FIFA Confederations Cup

(I normally don't retroactively change things in this TL based on current events - that's part of the fun, to see how wildly wrong I was with some of my predictions/stories. However, with everything happening to FIFA right now, I don't see how Qatar will be able to keep its World Cup in 2022. As said earlier, the USA is awarded 2026, and I stick by that. Instead, Australia is awarded the cup to keep the tournament within Asia, its ability to quickly modernize up to 12 stadiums to modified FIFA standards, its success hosting the 2015 AFC Asian Cup, and the recent hosting of the 2002 World Cup in Japan and Korea).

Teams:

Australia (Host)
Germany (Reigning World Cup Champion)
Algeria (2021 CAF Cup of Nations Champion)
France (2020 UEFA Euro Champion)
USA (Gold Cup Playoff Winner)
New Zealand (Oceania Champion)
Brazil (2019 Copa America Champion)
United Arab Emirates (2019 AFC Asian Cup Runner-Up)

After the draw, here are the groups:

Group A

Australia
France
New Zealand
Brazil

Group B

Germany
USA
UAE
Algeria

[KingSweden]

In all the excitement, I forgot British Columbia had an election in May of 2021.

The results:

NDP 46
BC Liberals 38
Greens 1
Conservatives 0

After a competent first term that included riding out a recession felt more strongly in BC and Western Canada than elsewhere, continued growth and measures that did not alienate moderates, the NDP increases its seat total from 2017 to form a majority government as the two spoiler parties fail to do as well as last time. NDP Premier John Horgan states, "We are re-earning the right to govern." It is a rare case of a minority government serving out a full term.

[KingSweden]

2021 FIFA Confederations Cup

Group A

The opening match is between Australia and New Zealand. The Soccerroos blast New Zealand 4-0, with Massimo Luongo and Cameron Joice, the stars, both scoring twice. This means the next match in the group is between soccer powers France and Brazil, and Brazil defeats European champions France 1-0 with a score by Neymar in the 89th minute.

The next game pitches Brazil against New Zealand, and the hapless Kiwis are knocked out of the tournament after Brazil blanks them 5-0, with five different Brazilian players scoring, including a penalty kick by Neymar. France defeats Australia 2-0 the same day, with Florian Thauvin delivering both of Les Bleus goals in the second half after a defense battle.

With Brazil already guaranteed a spot in the semifinals, Australia hopes they will not play their hardest in their match. However, they are unable to penetrate the Brazilian defense and are held to a scoreless draw. France, meanwhile, score three goals in ten minutes in the middle of their match with the overmatched Kiwis, with Paul Pogba, Alexandre Lacazette and Thauvin each scoring once. With the 3-0 victory, leaving New Zealand scoreless for the entire tournament and having conceded 12 goals, France advances to the semi.

Points:

Brazil 7
France 6
Australia 4
New Zealand 0

[KingSweden]

FIFA Confederations Cup

Group B

In the opening match, Algeria blasts the UAE, winning 5-0 as captain Sofiane Feghouli scores two goals, and young call ups Farouk Haddadi (2) and Bassam Hosseini (1) add goals as well. It is one of the biggest wins by Algeria in a FIFA tournament. In the other match, Germany wins a gritty defensive battle with the USA 1-0 thanks to a late Julian Brandt penalty.

The United States defeats UAE 2-1, with Rubio Rubin making the game-winning score at 90+2'. Germany defeats Algeria 1-0 as well, keeping a clean sheet for the second straight game as the Algerian attack is stifled by the Germany defense.

It all comes down to the final matchday, where Algeria and the USA draw with USA needing a win to advance. 1-1, with Haddadi scoring for the Desert Foxes and Gideon Zelalem scoring for the US. On goal differentials, Algeria advances to the semis. Germany, already having clinched a spot in the semis, defeats UAE by its third consecutive score of 1-0, with Max Meyer scoring the only goal.

Points:

Germany 9
Algeria 4
USA 4
UAE 0

[KingSweden]

2021 FIFA Confederations Cup

Semi-Finals

Germany vs. France

Germany, having coasted through a light group on three 1-0 wins, is unprepared to face France, which scores early on a Pogba penalty and then goes up 2-0 after Florian Thauvin continues his terrific tournament with a header past Ter Stegen at 73'. Max Meyer scores at 81', but Germany fails to equalize and so loses in regular time.

Brazil vs. Algeria

Algeria opens scoring by going up 2-0 on Brazil, with Hosseini and Haddadi each scoring once in the first thirty minutes. However, in the third period, Neymar turns in one of the greatest games of his storied career, scoring twice to send the game to extra minutes and then assisting Malcom on the go-ahead at 107'. Algeria fails to convert a penalty at 119' and so Brazil advances to face France in the final.

Third-Place Match

Germany and Algeria meet again. This time, the game does not go as well for the Germans as Algeria opens scoring thanks to tournament-leader Haddadi scoring twice in the first half. Meyer scores at 55', but Haddadi turns in a hat trick to give Algeria a coveted third-place in the Confederations Cup and leaves him with a 7-goal tournament.

Final

France, still remembering their loss to Brazil from a few weeks earlier, changes their game plan to an attacking one and keys their defense on Neymar. The plan works, with Thauvin scoring at 57' to add the first goal of the tournament and Antoine Griezmann adds another France score at 70'. Brazil fails to score at 76' when Neymar hits a cross to Casemiro that goes flying over the crossbary. At 89', another attempt for Brazil to score, this time by Fred, is knocked away by veteran France goalkeeper Hugo Lloris, and the attempt by Romulo to knock it in on the rebound is blocked when Kurt Zouma deflects the hard kick with his chest. There is only two minutes of stoppage, neither of which can be used by Brazil to score, and the Selecao continue their post-2014 frustrations in major intercontinental tournaments by losing 2-0, which means France is the 2021 FIFA Confederations Cup Champion!

France follows up their dazzling Euro 2020 win by taking their third Confederations Cup title to go with their third Euro, and making them indisputably the best side of the early 2020s. They are also the first European side to win a Confederations Cup since the 2003 France squad did it on French soil, as three straight were taken by Brazil and the 2017 edition was, of course, taken by the #ShocktheWorld USA team.

Final Standings:

France (Champion)
Brazil (Second Place)
Algeria (Third Place)
Germany (Fourth Place)

Awards:

Golden Ball: Florian Thauvin (France)
Best Goalkeeper: Hugo Lloris (France)
Top Scorer: Farouk Haddadi (Algeria)
Best Young Player (new award added for this tournament): Farouk Haddadi, aged 20 (Algeria)
FIFA Fair Play Award: Germany

[KingSweden]

July 2021: The hottest North American summer ever continues, with water shortages and sprinkler bans. Parts of the east coast enjoy 110 degree weather for the entire month. Congress, in one of the least productive sessions in history, adjourns until after Labor Day. Clinton is now fully back to day-to-day activities at the White House, and the rumors of tensions within the administration have largely died down. Former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert dies in federal prison at the age of 79. Not all bad news for Republicans, though, as former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is found not guilty on all major charges from his 2019 federal indictment after reaching a plea bargain on two minor charges, which only carry a one year sentence. Prosecutors simply did not have enough evidence to indict him with, but it still sullies his reputation. With the verdict coming only a few months before the 2021 Gubernatorial election, it is seen as helping boost the prospects of Tom Kean.

July 2021 (continued): Violence continues in both Venezuela and Catalonia, with an attempted putsch by left-sympathetic military officers in Caracas. The unity government led by Capriles is evacuated to Miami for a few days while UN peacekeepers try to stabilize the situation. 10,000 Marines from the United States and 5,000 Royal Marines from the UK are dispatched to help. A major scandal on MP expenses shakes Trudeau's Liberal Party just three months before the election. Moore's Tories lead by nearly 10% in the polls by the end of the month, and the Liberals narrowly fall behind the NDP. In Russia, it is still unclear if Putin is alive or not. Fighting escalates in Syria, where Sunni militias exploit a weakness in army lines to seize territory near the Golan Heights on July 31st.

And now, for Sports: After their burnout in the Confederations Cup, the USMNT is humiliated at home in the Gold Cup, eliminated in the semifinal by Panama, who goes on to lose to Mexico.

[Emperor Charles V]

Every time I read this, I feel worse and worse about when I criticized this before.

I really didn't know what I was thinking. This is an amazing, well thought out timeline! WELL DONE!

Yes, we all have our biases, but when I come to think of it, OTL has been a "wank" at times. This can be very realistic for all we know. No one can predict politics, just look at the unprecedented NDP wave in Alberta (Canada's Texas) last month.

It was really wrong of me to call this out as biased when really, no one can predict what our future has in store for us.

Please, forgive me, for everything I said on this thread.

[KingSweden]

Every time I read this, I feel worse and worse about when I criticized this before.

I really didn't know what I was thinking. This is an amazing, well thought out timeline! WELL DONE!

Yes, we all have our biases, but when I come to think of it, OTL has been a "wank" at times. This can be very realistic for all we know. No one can predict politics, just look at the unprecedented NDP wave in Alberta (Canada's Texas) last month.

It was really wrong of me to call this out as biased when really, no one can predict what our future has in store for us.

Please, forgive me, for everything I said on this thread.

I appreciate that, Charles. I'm not one to hold grudges, especially on the Internet.

In fact, if you enjoy this and are apparently a fan of alternate history, you might like my work on the Alternate History Wiki. My timelines there are named "Napoleon's World" and "Cinco De Mayo" (Cinco De Mayo is much more realistic but not as fleshed out).

[KingSweden]

August 2021: What a month! In a bid to show off his national security bonafides, Israeli PM Isaac Herzog orders air strikes against militia positions near the border with the Golan Heights after the "Sword of Islam" attempts to seize the demilitarized zone, overrunning UN Peacekeepers and engaging in a four-day firefight with the IDF, which kills nearly 1,000 militiamen and loses only 27 Israeli soldiers in return. Further evidence emerges that the new Syrian junta had connections to the militants, unlike most militias, and coordinated with a rejuvenated Hizbollah to try to box in Israel from the north. As a result, air strikes ramp up throughout the month, now targeting Hizbollah installations in Lebanon and Syria as well as militia encampments in Syria proper. In Iraq, meanwhile, tensions between the Iran-backed Shiite military junta and the Western-back Kurdish state start to suggest that the state might split in three - a Kurdish north, a Shiite east, and a Sunni west. Turkey, with more moderate leadership now after the decline in power of Erdogan over the last three years, mobilizes troops in anticipation of potential bloodshed on their borders.

In Russia, meanwhile, what has been suspected for months becomes official: Putin has passed away, though nobody is sure exactly when. Medvedev and the more liberal elements of the regime view this as a perfect opportunity to rapproach with the West, reading the popular protests of the last several years as a sign that Russia must modernize. Hardliners from the deep state refuse to accede to this view and jockeying begins inside the Kremlin, and Medvedev suddenly resigns as Prime Minister before the end of the month, before being sworn in as official President. Valentina Matviyenko becomes President instead as Medvedev flees to Germany, and she is widely viewed as a puppet of the oligarchs and senior Kremlin officials in Putin's inner circle. A coup has been effected in Russia.

In Venezuela, the situation continues to deteriorate as the Capriles government is unable to return due to violence in the capital. Where once the situation was thought taken care of, the violence is now spreading into the countryside. Fourteen Uruguayan peacekeepers are executed in central Caracas as "enemies of the revolution." Due to the violence, Venezuela now produces less than 5% of its max output of oil. The Colombian border is secured with a massive mobilization there by President José David Name. With Venezuela in turmoil, the Cuban economy continues its five-year depression, without the heavily subsidized oil it relied on and not importing enough from the still-embargoed United States. Analysts suggest the Communist regime there, without the Castros in charge anymore, may be on its last legs. Other Caribbean economies are suffering tremendously, too, and many cruise lines and tourist resorts hire private security after threats by the constellation of rebel paramilitaries threaten to strike "Yanquis" wherever they may find them.

Against this backdrop comes sagging approval ratings in August for President Clinton, who despite sending an additional 20,000 Marines to the UN peacekeeping force in Venezuela and keeping tabs on the Russian situation is viewed as "not doing enough." She creeps under 45% approvals for the first time in her Presidency, and it is seen as unlikely for much to get done in September when Congress readjourns. Thrown into this mix is the scorching hot summer and an angry crowd on a 121 degree day in Charleston turns into a mob after a hit-and-run accident of a local 12-year old goes viral.

[KingSweden]

September 2021: As situations in Venezuela, the Middle East and Europe continue deteriorating, discussions of air strikes to back up Israel begin to come in from Congress, particularly from Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton. The jobs report for August is dismal, showing only 40,000 jobs created and indicators begin to suggest the US might be heading into recession again. The Dow Jones decreases 1,800 points in twelve business days. A Gravis Marketing poll shows Clinton as having a 39% approval rating nationwide, and she seems slow and exhausted during a session where she hosts the NBA champion Timberwolves at the White House. Polling in New Jersey suggests a neck-and-neck race, while Mark Warner's staggering polling lead in Virginia over Senator Dick Stuart shrinks from over twenty points to five, nearly within the margin of error.

September 2021 (continued): Israeli special forces enter Syria and Lebanon as airstrikes continue to hammer enemy forces that now include Syrian Army positions. Two bomb attacks shake Tel Aviv, killing 147 people. Despite the military coup, Iraq's government has lost control over the entire western half of the country, worse than during ISIS's heyday in the mid-2010s. Kurdish leadership, having secured their territory long ago, start to talk about a referendum in conjunction with Syrian Kurds about formally forming a Kurdistan. US officials worry about the optics of backing a Kurdistan that Turkey is sure to oppose, especially with violence in Catalonia having quieted but still ongoing. Polling indicates nearly 60% support for Scottish independence after the events in Catalonia and a slowing British economy. Krakatoa erupts violently, disrupting travel across Asia and killing nearly 2,000 people.

[KingSweden]

German federal election, 2021

The CDU/CSU, coming out of an absolute majority under Chancellor Ursula von der Leyen, squanders its considerable advantage as it is defeated in a landslide by the Social Democrats under savvy centrist Hannelore Kraft, who helps the SPD out of its 16-year rut. The Free Democrats reenter the Bundestag, taking votes from CDU supporters, while AfD splits and both wings of the party fail to enter. The Social Democrats form a coalition with the Greens, who have their best showing ever, and thus narrowly avoid having to join up with Die Linke, which Kraft was well-known as wanting to avoid to present a moderate image for her party in conservative-inclined Germany.

Polling figures for parties entering Bundestag:

SPD: 33%
CDU/CSU: 26%
Left (Linke): 13%
Green: 13%
FDP: 7%

Even though she swears off an alliance with Linke, European and American stock exchanges decline in the aftermath of Kraft's dominating win as she teams up with the Greens. Entering Germany's government is one of the biggest wins in the history of Europe's green parties, with Simone Peter tapped as Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Economy and Energy. Frank-Walter Steinmeier is tapped for Defense, while Manuela Schwesig is given the Foreign Ministry over Sigmar Gabriel, who is known to be feuding with Kraft.

[KingSweden]

Analyzing the Kraft Win

The Economist: Frau Ursula, as she was known, didn't just lack the competence of her predecessor, Angela Merkel. She also lacked the considerable cachet Chancellor Merkel had built with the German public over 14 years, moved her party to the right right at the tail end of a decade-and-half reign when most voters start to become tired of the party in charge, developed a reputation as someone more interested in photo ops than wonky policy work, and despite fairly decent political instincts and superior charisma to most German politicians, she lacked crucial support in the party base (hence her ill-advised rightward tack) and allowed the SPD, in opposition rather than in government, to actually build a manifesto to run on.

The Guardian: The post-Merkel CDU is still unsure if it wants more of the vague, centrist "alternative-less" that seemingly only Mutti could sustain, or a more orthodox center-right party, like Von der Leyen seemed to desire, partially to win over skeptics. Frau Ursula was tapped by Merkel herself and was clearly not cut out for the job - a slick campaign by the SPD, highlighted by Hannelore Kraft's smart refusal to entertain any coalition with the ex-Communist Left and instead making overtures about a Red-Green alliance with the surging Green party, was enough to oust the 16-year dynasty of "Germany's natural ruling party." For the CDU, soul searching will begin. The one-time rising star David McAllister might deserve a second look after a decade in the political wilderness after his reputation was tarnished. For the SPD, they now lead government and will have to decide exactly how much of the agenda they want to let the ebullient Greens set.

[KingSweden]

Our first redistricting maps, just in time for the Virginia House of Delegates election in November of 2021.



A zoom of Northern Virginia



A zoom of Hampton Roads and Richmond



A zoom of the Southwest Virginia region



I'm not going to go into details and analyze every one of the 100 HOD districts here, but based on a rough estimate, this map is both more favorable to Democrats than the last one but still Leans GOP, with many suburban and exurban seats still in their column and enough rural seats in SW Virginia to give them a likely narrow majority in the HOD. Still, they will need to run more moderate candidates in some districts to maintain their advantage.

[KingSweden]

Canadian federal election, 2017

(Based on last week's events with Peter MacKay, I went back and subbed him out for James Moore, another Red Tory. Everything else is the same).

A disastrous year for the Trudeau government ends in one of the biggest wipeouts in Canadian history, and the biggest since 1993, as Trudeau's Liberals - entering with 171 seats, barely a majority, after by-elections - proceed to lose 145 seats in a landslide, winning only 16% of the vote and placing third. Only a year earlier, the Liberals had led the NDP by more than 15% in many polls and the Tories were in third - sine James Moore's takeover of the party and several small scandals (and one or two massive ones) for the Liberals, the Tories surge into the lead, netting close to 36% in polls.

It is Nathan Cullen's NDP that has the biggest turnaround, though. Four years after they were snookered by Trudeau into sinking the government, Cullen's NDP has built out its provincial infrastructure, doubled down on Quebec and attacked Trudeau's government mercilessly from the left. Building off of big wins in Quebec and BC in recent years, and using the short-lived NDP breakthrough in Alberta to their advantage, they manage 35% in the polls, one slot below the Tories. Though the Greens win 7% of the vote, thanks to FPTP they actually lose seats, dropping to 2, both on Vancouver Island.

Results:

Conservative: 157 seats (36%)
New Democrat: 153 (35%)
Liberal: 26 (16%)
Green: 2 (7%)
Others: 0 (6%)

With the standings, the Tories have a minority government only 13 seats shy of a majority - normally, this would be a "strong minority" for Jim Moore, but the NDP is only four seats back, they do not have much wiggle room.

The Liberals are left with only two seats in Quebec, including Trudeau's. They lose all of their seats west of Ontario, including in the Vancouver area where they dominated four years earlier and in Winnipeg and Edmonton. Only two Cabinet members besides Trudeau are left, as seats of retiring Cabinet members (such as Andrew Leslie at Defense) are lost, or seats of incumbent Cabinet officials (most prominently Finance Minister Mark Holland). The Liberals are left with one seat in Nova Scotia and two in New Brunswick after having cleaned up in those regions in the past two elections. On election night, after winning reelection in his Papineau riding by only 717 votes, Justin Trudeau announces he will stand down as Liberal leader immediately as the party is left in worse condition than the one he found it in. It is one of the worst losses for an incumbent PM elected in his own right, as John Turner (1984) and Kim Campbell (1993) were replacements for unpopular party leaders before their landslide losses.

In Quebec, there are now only two Tory and two Liberal seats - 74 of the NDP's seats, almost half, are from that province alone.

[KingSweden]

Journalists on the Tory victory.

The Economist: James Moore will be appointed Prime Minister of Canada in a few days because after a six-year absence, the Conservatives learned how to talk to voters without Stephen Harper at the helm. A kinder, gentler Conservative Party will lead Canada, even if many NDP and Liberal supporters view Moore as Harper Lite. The Tories were able to capitalize on Moore's inoffensiveness and a terrific speech in his native Vancouver where he declared, "multiculturalism is a conservative virtue." Moore is open to limited decriminalization of marijuana, which took away an attack avenue for Liberals in the campaign, stayed on script about the failings of the Trudeau government, and cleaned up in the West, the heartland of the Tories. Moore showed once again that no center-right party in the Western world is better at attracting the votes of immigrants and ethnic minorities than Canada's Tories, creating a multicultural conservative coalition.

The Sun: Moore inherits at the same time one of the strongest and also weakest minority governments in history. The next few years will be very interesting - there is almost no way his government survives a full term. Only 13 seats shy of a majority, Tory campaign managers are surely kicking themselves wondering what could have been (though not like their colleagues in the NDP are). With only four seats separating them from the ascendant New Democrats, however, Moore will need to effect one of the most disciplined whip operations in Canadian history - he can afford no defectors from the right wing of the party, which mistrusts his genial suburban-moderate Red Tory inclinations, and must convince an ecstatic, empowered NDP and a shell-shocked Liberal Party to consistently give his government confidence. Moore, who in the space of one year took his party from third in the polls to gaining nearly 50 seats and shy of a majority, has much to be proud of. But he will have to tread carefully, as he has a weaker hand than any incoming Prime Minister in recent history.

National Post: It is the ascendancy of British Columbia - both the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition will, for the first time, both be from BC, and a third party leader, the Green's Elizabeth May, is from BC as well. With leaders from both major parties hailing from out west, it will behoove the Liberals to use that as their first step to repair their shattered image in the East, where Atlantic Canada and Ontario are the most fertile recruiting grounds. In a polarized, ideological Canada, this will be a tough task.

Journalists on the NDP surge.

National Post: It has always been one step forward, two steps back for the NDP. They win a smashing majority in Quebec in 2011 and enter opposition, only to have popular leader Jack Layton die three months later from cancer. In the decade since, they have seen their fortunes rise in provincial legislatures as the federal party looked lost. Mulcair, a respected man, failed to overcome Trudeaumania in 2015 and Nathan Cullen, a sharp politico, was snookered into forcing early elections in 2017, with his party taking much of the blame. But today it is Cullen, who nearly lost his leadership position in the fall of 2017, who stands triumphant. It was his work to utilize the success of the NDP at the provincial level to help flesh out the federal party, particularly in Quebec and British Columbia. NDP voters are much more patient than left-wing supporters in other countries - the NDP does not have the bad habit of eating its own, allowing Cullen to find his footing as leader and build cachet with his MPs and the electorate. The result is a win even more smashing than the euphoria of 2011, with the NDP picking up 99 seats and coming just a few seats shy of government. Cullen will have power in Ottawa, real power, as opposition leader. It will be fascinating to see how he chooses to use it.

On the Liberal collapse.

The Economist: Trudeau was chosen as an almost messianic figure in 2013 to lead the Liberals back to their glory days, just two years after their worst result in party history. Less than a decade later, he stands over the smoking ruins of their new worst result, with fewer seats and a smaller vote share than 2011. In the interim, he ran both a feckless minority government and an incompetent majority government, where he accomplished little of note, angering his progressive supporters who two days ago defected en masse to the NDP, and was taken unseriously in foreign capitals. Trudeau envisioned himself as a Canadian Tony Blair - needless to say, he didn't come close.

[KingSweden]

October 2021: As international events continue to atrophy the administration's popularity, a bad dose of domestic troubles crops up too. Evidence shows that the economy only grew at 0.4% in Q3 of 2021 and the jobs report for September is only 47,000 new jobs created. A political firestorm is ignited when Justice Anthony Kennedy announces that he is suffering from mild dementia and will retire after the current term in January, triggering one of the biggest political fights in over a decade as the balance of the Supreme Court is about to change. Just when things couldn't get worse for Clinton, Hurricane Peter, a Cat 5, slams into the North Carolina and Virginia coasts, doing the most damage in Virginia Beach and the Delmarva Peninsula, in many places flooding communities for weeks. Clinton and Heinrich both join Governor Herring in touring the area. The hurricane also forces DC to be evacuated as the Potomac nearly floods, with Congress adjourning as the city is pelted by the storm. Luckily, the Potomac does not flood the city or Northern Virginia by a few inches. It is still one of the worst storms in US history.

October 2021 (continued): Albert Rivera survives an assassination attempt and as a result steps up Spanish activities in Catalonia, arresting dozens. Protests clamoring for another Scottish independence referendum begin in Edinburgh just six months out from the UK's general election. Kurdish leadership announce plans to stage a referendum on Kurdish independence from Iraq as the Shiite junta continues to lose ground in their war with the diffuse militias. Turkey states that it will refuse to recognize any Kurdish state and will not allow any similar referenda in its own country. Three key Venezuelan resistance leaders are captured in Guyana. Israeli forces continue to bomb militiamen in Syria and Lebanon as the Middle Eastern conflict widens.

And now, for Sports: Playing in their third straight World Series, the Toronto Blue Jays win their second straight World Series title after defeating the Colorado Rockies in six games.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2021

New Jersey

Governor: Democrats' greatest fears are realized. Tom Kean, running as a competent, moderate technocrat and slamming Steve Fulop over New Jersey's backsliding economy, credit downgrades and six municipalities - including Atlantic City - that are exiting bankruptcy, wins 52-47. Fulop's campaign implodes down the stretch, as he waffles on some of his accomplishments and is unable to effectively explain the mess the Christie administration left him. With approval ratings in the high 30s, Fulop "the Flop" is regarded as one of the worst governors in state history, despite him being able to prevent a landslide loss with a late surge in the dying days of the campaign. R+1.

NJ Senate: Democrats lose two seats in the New Jersey Senate to cut their majority to 23-17 under a new legislative map that is much friendlier to their party than the old one. With many more districts concentrated in northern New Jersey rather than shrinking southern New Jersey, the Republicans have much fewer opportunities to expand their map.

NJ Assembly: Democrats lose four seats, with two of them being big surprises, to narrow their majority further to 41-39. Some conservative-leaning machine Democrats indicate that they will demand concessions in all negotiations moving forward with the knife's-edge majority. Kean's success in central and southern New Jersey, particularly in suburban counties, is seen as huge for powering the GOP's strong minority. Assembly Speaker Gabriela Mosquera promises to reach out to Republicans to set a "common course" moving forward.

[Maxwell]

Looking like Fulop is the Jimmy Carter of New Jersey.