Predict IA, OH, & TX in the general election (user search)
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  Predict IA, OH, & TX in the general election (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict IA, OH, & TX in the general election  (Read 3048 times)
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,617
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« on: September 30, 2019, 08:16:44 PM »

IA: D+1
TX: Trump+2
OH: Trump+2.5

If Trump wins the GE:

IA: Trump+2
TX: Trump+4
OH: Trump+4.5
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,617
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2022, 11:30:04 PM »

Actual (rounded) R+8 for OH and IA, R+5.5 for TX

Margins of error:

IA:

Zaybay2, Republican95: R+4
538Electoral, SN2903: R+2
TrendsareReal: accurate
gracile, IceSpear, ElectionsGuy, OneJ D+1
vern1988 D+2
TSAS04, Frenchrepublican, Jacobin, Laki, kongress D+3
Thunder98, Politician, 20RP12, RFKFan68, Orser67, West_Midlander: D+4
redjohn, yeah_93, Computer89 D+5
krb08, Comrade Funk, Beef, Wisconsinite, McGovernForPrez: D+7
bagelman D+9
RaphaelDLG: D+9.5
coloradocowboi D+10
Zaybay1 D+11

OH:

Zaybay2: R+3
IceSpear: R+2
538Electoral, SN2903, ElectionsGuy, Republican95: R+1
Frenchrepublican, TrendsareReal accurate
Comrade Funk, Laki, kongress(average), McGovernForPrez: D+1
gracile, redjohn, Orser67, Jacobin, yeah_93, OneJ D+2
TSAS04, krb08, Politician, RFKFan68, Beef, Computer89 D+3
Thunder98, 20RP12, coloradocowboi, vern1988 D+4
Wisconsinite D+5
RaphaelDLG, bagelman D+5.5
Zaybay1 D+6
West_Midlander D+7

TX:

vern1988: R+5.5
538Electoral: R+4
Jacobin: R+2.5
Frenchrepublican, Politician, SN2903, ElectionsGuy R+0.5 (close enough, closer than below)
redjohn, Orser67, Laki, Republican95, Computer89 D+0.5 (close enough)
gracile, Beef, Wisconsinite D+1.5
TSAS04, kbr08, 20RP12, Comrade Funk, IceSpear, yeah_93, kongress(average), OneJ D+2.5
Thunder98, Zaybay1, RFKFan68, West_Midlander, coloradocowboi, bagelman: D+3.5
TrendsareReal D+4.5
Zaybay2, RaphaelDLG: D+5
McGovernForPrez: D+6
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