VA (VA Commonwealth University): Biden +14

[Ferguson97]

I never said that Trump is winning here, however, Biden winning by 14+ is absolutely insane.

Biden will win Virginia by 10+ points

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

[Da2017]

Virginia is pretty much gone for the Gop.

[jamestroll]

Maybe we really do not need Tim Kaine on the ticket to win the state.

[Dr. Arch]

Maybe we really do not need Tim Kaine on the ticket to win the state.

[Hydera]

Way too many college grads in the sample.

College voters composed 54% of the vote in 2016 in Virginia's exit polls, its only 57% now which is just a 3% increase.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Dominating.

[pbrower2a]

Even if the undecided split 2-6 against Biden, Virginia goes into the Safe D column in 2020. Trump can win the 2020 election without Virginia, but he's not going to win nationally if he loses Virginia by 10%.   

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

August 28 - September 7
693 likely voters
Changes with July 11-19 poll

Third party candidate [volunteered] 1% (n/c from Other at 1%)
Don't know/refused 8% (-2 from Undecided at 10%)

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

If Biden wins by around 8 as I predict, VA will be D+6 compared to the NPV, which makes sense. It had a tied PVI in 2012, and was D+3 in 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s beyond embarrassing that there are posters on a forum like this who considered (or still consider) this state winnable for Republicans (even "with Bernie" or "with Pence" or "with a non-Trumpist Republican"). Even if Biden wins the state by 12-15 points, some will unironically chalk it up to "VA is a Biden/moderate state, not a Democratic state" and pretend that Republicans have a great chance of capturing the governor's mansion in 2021.

[TheTide]

It’s beyond embarrassing that there are posters on a forum like this who considered (or still consider) this state winnable for Republicans (even "with Bernie" or "with Pence" or "with a non-Trumpist Republican"). Even if Biden wins the state by 12-15 points, some will unironically chalk it up to "VA is a Biden/moderate state, not a Democratic state" and pretend that Republicans have a great chance of capturing the governor's mansion in 2021.

Biden is pretty clearly going to win the state by a hefty margin this time, and Republicans aren't going to have much of a chance if the circumstances of 2020 stay roughly the same...but circumstances do change. Which may entail the GOP regularly losing by 20 instead of 10. Point being, politics is volatile.

[jamestroll]

Basically 53% of those polled support Biden. 39% of those polled support Trump.

I will do my own unskewing of the poll. Which is literally the simplest way to do it but could be the most accurate.

8% are undecided. I will give 1% to third parties/write ins/etc and four points to Trump  and 3 points to Biden.

So... 56% Biden 43% Trump. Final result. Makes sense.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It’s beyond embarrassing that there are posters on a forum like this who considered (or still consider) this state winnable for Republicans (even "with Bernie" or "with Pence" or "with a non-Trumpist Republican"). Even if Biden wins the state by 12-15 points, some will unironically chalk it up to "VA is a Biden/moderate state, not a Democratic state" and pretend that Republicans have a great chance of capturing the governor's mansion in 2021.

So you're saying Virginia is a no-go when I run for President?

Boo. 

[cg41386]

There's no such thing as a "NOVA moderate".

Unless you classify the Dixie hinterlands of Stafford County (and below) NOVA.

Which most of us residing inside the beltway do not.

Oh? I would think Stafford would be considered NOVA. Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania is another story.

[redjohn]

Biden winning by double-digits in VA doesn't bode well for Trump. The trends that are pushing Biden to massive leads here will carry over in other states. Same goes for huge Biden margins in CO, NM, and anywhere else. It's not in a vacuum. The implications of a Biden+14 lead in VA are major across the region.

[ProudModerate2]

But SN told us that Virginia would be in-play.

[Bootes Void]

But SN told us that Virginia would be in-play.

not 100% I remember him saying that NJ could be in play

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It’s beyond embarrassing that there are posters on a forum like this who considered (or still consider) this state winnable for Republicans (even "with Bernie" or "with Pence" or "with a non-Trumpist Republican"). Even if Biden wins the state by 12-15 points, some will unironically chalk it up to "VA is a Biden/moderate state, not a Democratic state" and pretend that Republicans have a great chance of capturing the governor's mansion in 2021.

So you're saying Virginia is a no-go when I run for President?

Boo. 

Just keep your voice soothing. So soothing people will think you are from the Midwest, have Perdue be your VP, and VA is yours.

[Yoda]

Clinton won by just 5, correct? If Biden wins VA by double digits, I don't see how trump has any chance of winning the EC. VA may have swung harder against trump than the country as a whole (in fact I'd wager so) but as we all know, even just a 1% swing in PA, MI and WI is enough to defeat trump. I'd bet a lot of money that the swings will be more like 5% in all of those states.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s beyond embarrassing that there are posters on a forum like this who considered (or still consider) this state winnable for Republicans (even "with Bernie" or "with Pence" or "with a non-Trumpist Republican"). Even if Biden wins the state by 12-15 points, some will unironically chalk it up to "VA is a Biden/moderate state, not a Democratic state" and pretend that Republicans have a great chance of capturing the governor's mansion in 2021.

Biden is pretty clearly going to win the state by a hefty margin this time, and Republicans aren't going to have much of a chance if the circumstances of 2020 stay roughly the same...but circumstances do change. Which may entail the GOP regularly losing by 20 instead of 10. Point being, politics is volatile.

Except for the fact that they aren’t going to have any chance in Virginia even if the circumstances of 2020 don’t stay the same and somehow improve dramatically for Republicans. I agree that it’s more of a question of losing by 20 or 10, but that doesn’t contradict the underlying reality that it’s Safe D in both of those (and all other realistic) scenarios.

VA also isn’t going to be more Republican than ME, btw.

[jamestroll]

I am in line for early voting in Fairfax County. The line is very long.. and is building behind me fast. A lot.. and I mean a lot of Biden enthusiasm.

[wbrocks67]

I am in line for early voting in Fairfax County. The line is very long.. and is building behind me fast. A lot.. and I mean a lot of Biden enthusiasm.

Makes me wonder if the "silent majority" this year is gonna be Biden backers. It happened in the primary too. Just b/c people aren't screaming for Biden or putting 5 lawn signs out doesn't mean they aren't gonna go out and vote.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I am in line for early voting in Fairfax County. The line is very long.. and is building behind me fast. A lot.. and I mean a lot of Biden enthusiasm.

Makes me wonder if the "silent majority" this year is gonna be Biden backers. It happened in the primary too. Just b/c people aren't screaming for Biden or putting 5 lawn signs out doesn't mean they aren't gonna go out and vote.

I felt it to be the most likely scenario. I've certainly never heard of "shy Trump voters". Especially while reading plenty of stories about Biden signs being stolen from peoples front yard