Arizona: Only a matter of time, but how much time?

[sg0508]

The statewide AZ GOP is still far stronger than the statewide democratic party.  The republicans have put up some relatively beatable congressional candidates over the past decade (Kyl, etc) and the democrats couldn't beat them.  Plus, the tougher image on immigration has served the GOP pretty well there for the past few years.

The amazing thing is that when the GOP wins there, the county map is exactly the same almost every time.  Maricopa literally mirrors the statewide vote percentage almost every time.   The demographic change will help the democrats, but the bigger change (and the one that got Clinton the victory over Dole in '96) is that AZ is becoming a bigger haven for retirees and thus, medicare and SS will become bigger issues there going forward.

AZ and GA were the two states I figured Obama would make a bigger play at in 2012, but he didn't need to, as Romney boxed himself into too much of an electoral college corner.  

[sg0508]

Again, it's not just the hispanic inflow.  Watch the number of retirees and even young voters that are moving to AZ.  That may help the democrats more in the end.