Arizona: Only a matter of time, but how much time?

[eric82oslo]

The fact that AZ was McCain's home state provided him a big boost in 2008 and many of the whites who never voted for Obama in 2008 simply were not going to in 2012 after having no attachment. Had AZ not been McCain's home i think the state votes much like NC in both 2008, 2012.

Good point. I think Obama didn't feel like competing there because of his fight/personal dislike with Jan Brewer. Instead he chose to compete in the more friendlier territories of Virginia and North Carolina, which in many respects are more conservative than Arizona (very much more religious for one). Yet they did offer huge amounts of African Americans. Once Obama is no longer the nominee, I expect Virginia and North Carolina will become slightly harder to win for Democrats, while Arizona and Florida on the other hand should become easier to win instead, especialy if the next Democratic nominee actually doesn't surrender the state before she's even started.

[eric82oslo]

3) I agree with you that Arizona is not a swing state - yet. But who among us, in 2005, would have been taken seriously if we asserted that North Carolina would be a swing state in the next 2 elections?

Also the majority of House members from Arizona are currently Democratic and the last Senate race was very close (Flake winning with only 3%). Also, the two Senators they do have, McCain and Flake, are also among the Senate's most moderate Republicans. Especially on a topic like immigration. So no Jan Brewer influence there luckily.