Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[Estrella]

For what it's worth, Korčok released an ad calling Pellegrini Fico's bag carrier.

Campaign update: the whole 'Pellegrini is just a stalking horse for Fico' thing really sticks. Over the past few weeks, I've heard the word podržtaška ("bag carrier") more times than I can count. It's now gotten to the point that people are hanging shopping bags on Pelle's billboards.



In more serious campaign news, Pellegrini has chosen the strategy of running to the right. Besides his standard line about stability and calm, his campaign emphasizes traditional values, religion, patriotism, accuses Korčok of being a puppet of Brussels and makes some nudge-nudge-wink-wink gestures towards Russia: he said that Slovak hockey players who continue playing in the Russian KHL should be allowed to represent Slovakia at the World Championship. Pelle seems to think that his hold on moderates is secure and he'll benefit from trying to get the votes of the radical wing of Smer, SNS and Republika, plus possibly gain some socially conservative KDH and Matovič voters who care more about voting against liberals than against Fico. I don't necessarily disagree with that assessment, but it's worth noting that in 2014 and 2019 Smer candidates tried a similar strategy based on trotting out religious and nationalist talking points and it didn't get them very far.

This time it might work – Pellegrini is much more popular than Fico and Šefčovič were – but there's a serious risk it might blow up in his face. After the election, many suspected that Hlas was in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation: they'd be damned less with Smer than with PS, but they'd be damned anyway. We now have a poll asking voters of governing parties how much they agree with Fico's various measures.

Slovakia is going in a positive direction: Smer 71%, SNS 67%, Hlas 39%
At most 10 year sentences for economic criminality: Smer 55%, SNS 53%, Hlas 38%
Cutting the statute of limitations on rape from 20 to 10 years: SNS 50%, Smer 47%, Hlas 31%
Decreasing criminal sentences: SNS 50%, Smer 44%, Hlas 25%
Increasing ministers' pay: SNS 46%, Smer 34%, Hlas 14%

Aside from the dire Hlas numbers, it doesn't bode well for the government that what are for now its signature policies are only supported by half of its own voters.

[Estrella]

Big news: the Constitutional Court threw the most egregious parts of Fico's amendment to the Criminal Code – the provisions lowering the sentences for corruption, statutes of limitations and retroactive revisions of plea bargains with pentiti in corruption cases. It hasn't been declared unconstitutional yet; deciding on that will take some time and the justification might be based on procedure as well as the contents of the bill. It's been established for some time that the expedited legislative procedure can only be used for urgent legislation and this wouldn't be the first government bill to be thrown out after the court ruled that the law could have unforeseen consequences that should've been debated.

For now, the court suspended the law, which means it won't go in effect on March 15 and several corruption trials with oligarchs close to Smer will continue. It took the court only nine days to decide, which was very fast, but for a reason. After the court makes the decision, the Minister of Justice has fifteen days to publish it in the government gazette. The decision to suspend the law takes effect only after publication, which means that if it was made, say, on March 1, it would be legal for the minister to publish it on March 16. Even though the law would be in effect only for a day, the new statutes of limitations would kick in and all cases they affect would be closed forever.

However, the abolition of the Office of the Special Prosecutor will go ahead (the government's absurd justification is that its anti-corruption prosecutions were a violation of human rights) and on March 20 it will cease to exist. The Prosecutor General promised that regional prosecutors will be able to continue with cases that are currently open and not affected by the shortened statute of limitations, but you know how much a Smer promise is worth.

[Storr]

Vazil Hudák was Slovakia's Minister of Economy during Fico's second government. A sure sign that he must be completely innocent and not at all corrupt:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-fraud-olaf-investigation-european-investment-bank-vazil-hudak-loan-budapest-airport/

"The EU’s anti-fraud office OLAF is investigating allegations of "serious misconduct" by staff at the European Investment Bank over a €200 million loan granted to Budapest Airport in 2018, according to an internal document about the probe seen by POLITICO.

OLAF investigators quizzed ex-EIB Vice President Vazil Hudák in Brussels earlier this month as a "person concerned" in approving the loan, according to the document. He was also questioned about his election to the airport's executive board over concerns that he failed to respect a required “cooling off” period for job moves that could pose conflicts of interest.

Hudák's questioning follows a complaint made to OLAF, seen by POLITICO, that alleges he could have received “personal benefits” from the loan’s approval.

Hudák — a former Slovakian economy minister who headed up the bank's Central and Eastern Europe division from October 2016 to October 2019 and moved to Budapest Airport’s board in 2020 — rejected the accusation as “misleading” and "simply untrue.""

[Estrella]

wtf I love Fico now?

Fico bets on nuclear and talks about a project worth tens of billions of euros.

Prime Minister Robert Fico (Smer-SD) supports the construction of a new nuclear unit in Jaslovské Bohunice with a capacity of more than 1,000 megawatts. He justified this on the grounds of the expected growth in electricity consumption in Slovakia in connection with the transition to electromobility.

Currently, according to the Prime Minister, there is no problem with the shortage of nuclear fuel. "The problem is whether we will have the courage to take a decision and say that we are going to build another nuclear unit in Jaslovské Bohunice. And I am very much in favour of that," Fico said. According to the prime minister, the analysis shows an increase in electricity consumption by 40 to 83% by 2040. Such demand, according to Fico, cannot be covered by electricity produced from photovoltaic panels or wind.

The construction of the new nuclear unit in Jaslovské Bohunice could be carried out by the Nuclear Energy Company of Slovakia (JESS), according to previous government decisions. It is a joint venture between the Slovak Nuclear and Decommissioning Company (JAVYS), which owns a 51% stake, and the Czech energy group CEZ, which owns 49% of the company.

Slovakia currently has five operational nuclear reactors producing 55–60% of our electricity, the second highest share in the world just behind France. Every political party supports the expansion of nuclear energy, usually with justifications based on their ideology (Smer and Hlas because it'll be cheaper for consumers, PS and SaS because it's green, SNS because "we must not give in to pressure of the West to limit or stop the operation of nuclear power plants"), sometimes with an addendum (Matovič wants to build more small modular reactors, KDH wants operators to keep a three year reserve of nuclear fuel, Republika wants to build a third power plant instead of adding reactors to existing ones etc). The only arguably nuclear-skeptical party is PS, and even their position is just that new projects should be funded by private investors instead of the state. At Mochovce, a new reactor was started last year and another one is being built, scheduled to be finished this year. One of Slovakia's two remaining coal power plants at Nováky closed last December, the other one at Vojany will close in the next few months.

You know, it's nice we have at least one reason to justifiably look down on other countries Eat your heart out, Germans.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

wtf I love Fico now?

Fico bets on nuclear and talks about a project worth tens of billions of euros.

Prime Minister Robert Fico (Smer-SD) supports the construction of a new nuclear unit in Jaslovské Bohunice with a capacity of more than 1,000 megawatts. He justified this on the grounds of the expected growth in electricity consumption in Slovakia in connection with the transition to electromobility.

Currently, according to the Prime Minister, there is no problem with the shortage of nuclear fuel. "The problem is whether we will have the courage to take a decision and say that we are going to build another nuclear unit in Jaslovské Bohunice. And I am very much in favour of that," Fico said. According to the prime minister, the analysis shows an increase in electricity consumption by 40 to 83% by 2040. Such demand, according to Fico, cannot be covered by electricity produced from photovoltaic panels or wind.

The construction of the new nuclear unit in Jaslovské Bohunice could be carried out by the Nuclear Energy Company of Slovakia (JESS), according to previous government decisions. It is a joint venture between the Slovak Nuclear and Decommissioning Company (JAVYS), which owns a 51% stake, and the Czech energy group CEZ, which owns 49% of the company.

Slovakia currently has five operational nuclear reactors producing 55–60% of our electricity, the second highest share in the world just behind France. Every political party supports the expansion of nuclear energy, usually with justifications based on their ideology (Smer and Hlas because it'll be cheaper for consumers, PS and SaS because it's green, SNS because "we must not give in to pressure of the West to limit or stop the operation of nuclear power plants"), sometimes with an addendum (Matovič wants to build more small modular reactors, KDH wants operators to keep a three year reserve of nuclear fuel, Republika wants to build a third power plant instead of adding reactors to existing ones etc). The only arguably nuclear-skeptical party is PS, and even their position is just that new projects should be funded by private investors instead of the state. At Mochovce, a new reactor was started last year and another one is being built, scheduled to be finished this year. One of Slovakia's two remaining coal power plants at Nováky closed last December, the other one at Vojany will close in the next few months.

You know, it's nice we have at least one reason to justifiably look down on other countries Eat your heart out, Germans.

broken clock

[Estrella]

The first round of the presidential election is in two weeks, but the campaign is very quiet so far, almost an afterthought. Posters started cropping up on the streets, Korčok is trying (and failing) to catch attention with memey gimmicks and to quote Sir Humphrey, Pellegrini mistook lethargy for strategy and thinks that not reminding opposition voters he exists will do more than forceful polarization, at least in the first round. Honestly, it seems as if the top two are competing who can lead a more boring campaign. You'd think the other candidates would benefit from that, but they're even more invisible – granted, this might be because parties are broke after last year's marathon campaign and independents don't have much money in the first place, but it's still pathetic. We've had one poll with a Korčok first round lead, but it showed Pellegrini winning the runoff anyway and all other candidates got the same numbers as elsewhere. Yawn.

The issues people are actually talking about are what the government likes to call reforms. The Minister of Justice cut all funding to 80 NGOs and associations (scouts, deaf people, blind people, disabled children, covid bereaved etc.), justifying it by accusing them of being "connected to the opposition". The Minister of Culture set out to reform the public broadcaster RTVS, accusing it of not having enough Slovak content and being biased towards the opposition (Fico specifically said the public TV is "inviting people to opposition rallies"). The new head of SIS will be Pavol Gašpar, the son of former Police President Tibor Gašpar who was Fico's first pick for the role before he realized that putting a scandal magnet currently prosecuted for corruption in charge of the intelligence service would be a bad idea even by his standards. Fico also went ballistic at the Constitutional Court for rejecting the Criminal Code reform, accused it of leaking information to opposition media and asked the Chief Justice to resign.

Two more things: PS presented their list for the European elections, with a big name at the top – last year's technocratic PM Ľudovít Ódor. More importantly, the Czech PM cancelled a meeting with the Slovak cabinet because of Fico's position towards Russia.

This past weekend, Fico noted the withdrawal of an Italian air defense system from Slovakia and asked who would protect the country’s nuclear reactors. Czech Minister for European Affairs Martin Dvořák shot back, “He should ask Putin, if they’re such great friends and it’s so necessary to rehabilitate [the Russian president], maybe Russia would offer its protection.”

[Estrella]

hahahahaha

https://twitter.com/p_fiala/status/1766050436631433687

Relations between Czechia and Slovakia are at an excellent level. In Kramář's Villa I welcomed Michal Šimečka, with whom we agree on foreign policy issues, we know who is the aggressor and who is the victim, and we also know who needs to be helped.

We also agreed that our countries have a number of common interests and projects, for example in energy or transport infrastructure. It is in the interests of all of us that the Czechs and Slovaks cooperate and develop their relations. 🇨🇿🇸🇰

[RGM2609]

How much of an impact do you think the presidential results will have on the europarliamentary election in May and generally on the future of the Fico cabalgovernment and the political scene? Will they be as much of an afterthought as the campaign was?

PS: That Fiala tweet is so ing based. We stan our two Putin-hating kings.

[Estrella]

How much of an impact do you think the presidential results will have on the europarliamentary election in May and generally on the future of the Fico cabalgovernment and the political scene? Will they be as much of an afterthought as the campaign was?

PS: That Fiala tweet is so ing based. We stan our two Putin-hating kings.

All European elections here are afterthoughts. Tbh it’s probably because of the unfortunate timing — the presidential term ends just before the EU elections, so you can’t hold the two together and in June people will go to the polls for the third time in as many months — but we usually have the lowest turnout in the EU. So whatever the result will be, it won’t be very indicative of anything, although opposition parties and random nobodies always do better.

As for the future of Fico… well, if Korčok wins Fico will be able to bypass him on most issues anyway, but the two are going to attack each other all the time. If Pelle wins, Fico will have to find someone else to accuse of being a traitor and Hlas will have to find someone else to have as leader. Pelle is by far the best know figure in the party and I don’t think anyone else could fill his shoes, so things could get interesting there.

[Storr]

"Slovak defence minister Robert Kalinjak said on TV that instead of sending their troops to Ukraine, NATO countries should send “cowardly Ukrainian men” there, meaning refugees who fled conscription. So very Eastern Europe - when one’s pro-peace (or pro-war) position is based neither on values, nor on vision, only on short-term need to score domestic support."

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1767164950496137660?s=20

[Estrella]

More foreign policy schizophrenia and a confirmation of the tweet above:

Kaliňák talks differently than Fico and Blaha: with America we can be stronger and the war started with occupation of Crimea

Two weeks after Prime Minister Robert Fico spoke about the "deceitful demonisation of Russian president Putin", Defence Minister Robert Kaliňák (both Smer) offered a different view of Russia's war against Ukraine. In weekend debates, he repeatedly criticised the West for not being tough enough on Putin after 2014.

While Fico often uses Kremlin propaganda that the war started with "the murder of Russians by Ukrainian fascists", Kaliňák tells the story that it all started with Russia's occupation of Crimea and annexation of part of the Donbas in 2014.

"The war started in 2014, after the Russians took Crimea and after the annexation of Donetsk," Kaliňák spoke on the Saturday Dialogues programme. This is a completely different version to the one commonly used by other Smer politicians when commenting on foreign policy and the war in Ukraine. Simply put, the strongest ruling party has its strong Moscow wing and, in the person of Robert Kaliňák, its Washington wing.

Kaliňák is taking the initiative to talk about strengthening military ties with America on several levels. He has come up with an initiative to buy four more F-16 fighter jets and is also interested in the American Patriot air defence system, which he describes as the best of its kind.

He also sees the defence agreement with the United States (DCA) as advantageous - if some of the sub-provisions can be changed. This week he had another interview on a pro-Russian radio station. And he praised the idea of a military treaty with America.

"The DCA treaty with the United States should bring greater security to Slovakia," Kaliňák said. Fico demanded a referendum on this agreement when he was the opposition leader, which Kaliňák could not even remember after the elections, and the deputy speaker of parliament Ľuboš Blaha called every MP who supported it a traitor. Smer also had these MPs’ names put up on billboards.

In campaign news, something is finally happening. There will be one debate between Pellegrini and Korčok on Monday. There will also be a Kubiš-Forró and a Matovič-Harabin debate on Sunday. On Wednesday RTVS will revive their infamous 90s format with every candidate on stage at once, which will most likely end up as a chaotic four hour shouting match. This is a huge contrast to literally dozens of debates last year, but because these will be the only interesting thing in an otherwise dull campaign and not just a small part of an utter mayhem like they were in September, they might actually have an impact.

Štefan Harabin’s campaign is as invisible as that of any candidate outside the top two, but makes up for that with weirdness. I’ll just remind you that this is Štefan Harabin:

Štefan Harabin. HZDS politician, Minister of Justice (2006–2009), Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (1998–2003, 2009–2014), founder of nationalist party Vlasť, presidential candidate in 2019 (14.3%). Known for his off-the-scale-far-right political views, being friends with Albanian narcos, illegally paying himself €113,000 as Chief Justice, his claims to have been the victim of a failed assassination attempt carried out by the means of a falling chandelier, his bizarre style of speaking where he em-pha-si-zes eve-ry oth-er word or just randomly starts rapping, organizing Supreme Court sessions in places such as the municipal ballroom in Sobrance (population 6,101), saying that employing gay people as teachers is a violation of the constitution... you get the point.

His connection to reality has always been a little tenuous, but he lost his marbles completely during the pandemic - he refused to wear a mask even in court and multiple times caused a scene that required police involvement. He now spends his time making Youtube videos with titles such as "Hitler-worshipping Ukranonazi violently prevented me from laying a bouquet" or "Fanatical Hitlerist Čaputová fradulently in presidential office".

And now, er…

Presidential candidate Harabin: There are tendencies for the restoration of the Austro-Hungarian Empire

In a 50-minute pre-election interview with SME, Harabin managed to repeat more and less well-known conspiracies, defend Russian military aggression in Ukraine and tell the Canadian prime minister to go sell newspapers at a newsstand.

On the one hand, he claims to have respect for facts and truth, on the other hand, he spread a deepfake video of a fabricated interview of PS chairman Michal Šimečka with journalist Monika Tódová.

Harabin also revealed in the SME studio his belief that if Slovakia does not give in to Russian interests, Slovakia's borders may be "redrawn." He expects SNS chairman and presidential candidate Andrej Danko to give up his candidacy in favour of him soon.

Harabin has almost no chance but encourages people to bet on him

According to the Tipsport betting company, the odds on him winning are currently 245 to 1. A few weeks ago they were around 1200 to 1, but the bookmaker had to react to the high demand of the people and lowered the odds.

At Tipsport, people bet a total of 194 thousand euros on Harabin's victory. On him winning in the first round or advancing to the second round, another 72 thousand euros. For comparison, on Pellegrini's victory they bet 163 thousand and on Korčok 114 thousand.

Last week, Harabin spread the conspiracy on West Slovak Television that both the opinion polls and the odds in the betting shops are manipulated in order to produce a pair of favourites - Pellegrini and Korčok.

"I recommend all the people who watch this show to bet on my person and they will earn well," he said.

The presenter then recalculated how worthwhile it would be for people to bet, say, 10 euros. Harabin jumped in and urged viewers to bet 100 euros. "Sacrifice 100 and see what the magic will be," he said.

(btw this is an idea stolen from Andrej Babiš who did it ahead of the Czech presidential runoff)

[Storr]

Slovakia (Presidential election), FOCUS poll:

Pellegrini (Hlas-S&D): 34% (-1)
Korčok (*): 33% (-1)
Harabin (*): 13% (+2)
Matovič (Slovensko-EPP): 5%
Kubiš (*): 5%
Forró (MA-EPP): 3%
Danko (SNS-ID): 3%
Kotleba (ĽSNS-NI): 2% (-1)
Dubovský (ZĽ-EPP): 2%
Švec (SHO-*): 1% (new)

+/- vs. 14-21 February 2024

Fieldwork: 7-11 March 2024
Sample size: 1,010

Slovakia (Presidential run-off election), FOCUS poll:

Pellegrini (Hlas-S&D): 56% (+1)
Korčok (*): 44% (-1)

Pellegrini (Hlas-S&D): 73% (-3)
Harabin (*): 27% (+3)

Korčok (*): 56% (-7)
Harabin (*): 44% (+7)

+/- vs. 14-21 February 2024

Fieldwork: 7-11 March 2024
Sample size: 1,010

[Estrella]

Richard Sulík announced that after fifteen years at the helm of SaS, he's going to hand over the party to a new leader, chosen at a congress sometime in the spring. This is a fairly rare occurence in Slovakia - most party leaders stay in office for a very long time, often for the entire existence of the party: Matovič has led OĽANO for 11 years, Dzurinda led SDKÚ for 12 years, Mečiar led HZDS for 23 years and Fico has been the leader of Smer without interruption since 1999 - for 24 years. The only parties that semi-regularly change leaders are KDH and SMK/Alliance.

Richard Sulík, the bald right-liberal who caused the collapse of every government he was a part of, was succeeded by Branislav Gröhling, the bald right-liberal who served as Minister of Education in 2020–2022.

Sulík has had many notable moments in his career, but I'll mention just one. It's such a meme that even the pro-SaS newspaper HN made fun of it with today's headline "Now Gröhling can hold the balloon".

Election night 2010. The centre-right wins a majority. Richard Sulík visits SDKÚ leader Iveta Radičová to talk about forming a government. He grabs a celebratory balloon and starts joking about the possibility of Johnny Cash (i.e. Ján Slota) being kicked out of parliament. She tells him "Ricky, hold the balloon and wait" and talks to the journalists like an adult.

[Estrella]

can you tell I have some sh/t to do I'm avoiding?

ngl I seriously love the aesthetics of these maps

[Estrella]

What everyone's been predicting for months finally happened. Five days before the first round, Andrej Danko decided to abandon his damp squib of a presidential candidacy and endorsed Štefan Harabin. They announced it on a joint press conference, by which I mean that Danko actually announced it and Harabin was unskewing the polls.

The surveys that the ultra-liberal Soros agencies are peddling here are completely out of touch with reality. According to our poll, as of the date of this press conference, I have a preference of 19 percent.

On another note, I took a look at the parliamentary polling. As expected, not much is happening: every party is mostly within 1-2 points of what they got in the election, except for PS who benefit from being the main opposition and rose 3-4 points, and OĽANO/Slovensko who lost 2-3 points. Matovič was pretty damn lucky last September, but nothing has gone right for him since then. He organized his own anti-Fico protests with only a fraction of the turnout of the PS-KDH-SaS ones, the organizers refused to invite him to further common protests, his presidential run is going nowhere, seemingly nobody in the media is interested in what he has to say (his stunts may have been newsworthy ten years ago, but it's all old hat now) and as if that wasn't enough, five ex-MPs and a couple more notable figures announced they're leaving his party due to "an excess of populism" and "political isolation of the movement".

[Estrella]

In campaign news, something is finally happening. There will be one debate between Pellegrini and Korčok on Monday. There will also be a Kubiš-Forró and a Matovič-Harabin debate on Sunday. On Wednesday RTVS will revive their infamous 90s format with every candidate on stage at once, which will most likely end up as a chaotic four hour shouting match. This is a huge contrast to literally dozens of debates last year, but because these will be the only interesting thing in an otherwise dull campaign and not just a small part of an utter mayhem like they were in September, they might actually have an impact.

Well, about that. Kubiš didn't come because of "a planned trip abroad", so the first debate was just an interview with Forró (who was late because of a traffic jam). Harabin didn't come because "my main opponents are the two frontrunners", so the second debate was just an interview with Matovič (who was late because of a traffic jam). I didn't watch the Pelle-Korčok duel, but I've seen it described as "neither dominated and neither wanted to blunder", which probably sums it up. I'm not holding my breath for the last one.

[Storr]

In campaign news, something is finally happening. There will be one debate between Pellegrini and Korčok on Monday. There will also be a Kubiš-Forró and a Matovič-Harabin debate on Sunday. On Wednesday RTVS will revive their infamous 90s format with every candidate on stage at once, which will most likely end up as a chaotic four hour shouting match. This is a huge contrast to literally dozens of debates last year, but because these will be the only interesting thing in an otherwise dull campaign and not just a small part of an utter mayhem like they were in September, they might actually have an impact.

Well, about that. Kubiš didn't come because of "a planned trip abroad", so the first debate was just an interview with Forró (who was late because of a traffic jam). Harabin didn't come because "my main opponents are the two frontrunners", so the second debate was just an interview with Matovič (who was late because of a traffic jam). I didn't watch the Pelle-Korčok duel, but I've seen it described as "neither dominated and neither wanted to blunder", which probably sums it up. I'm not holding my breath for the last one.

Is Bratislava traffic actually bad enough it's conceivable two Presidential candidates could have been late to their television debates due to it, or is that excuse a load of garbage?

[Estrella]

In campaign news, something is finally happening. There will be one debate between Pellegrini and Korčok on Monday. There will also be a Kubiš-Forró and a Matovič-Harabin debate on Sunday. On Wednesday RTVS will revive their infamous 90s format with every candidate on stage at once, which will most likely end up as a chaotic four hour shouting match. This is a huge contrast to literally dozens of debates last year, but because these will be the only interesting thing in an otherwise dull campaign and not just a small part of an utter mayhem like they were in September, they might actually have an impact.

Well, about that. Kubiš didn't come because of "a planned trip abroad", so the first debate was just an interview with Forró (who was late because of a traffic jam). Harabin didn't come because "my main opponents are the two frontrunners", so the second debate was just an interview with Matovič (who was late because of a traffic jam). I didn't watch the Pelle-Korčok duel, but I've seen it described as "neither dominated and neither wanted to blunder", which probably sums it up. I'm not holding my breath for the last one.

Is Bratislava traffic actually bad enough it's conceivable two Presidential candidates could have been late to their television debates due to it, or is that excuse a load of garbage?

Yeah, it's just awful. More than a few times I was late to school when a ten minute bus trip took three quarters of an hour They also had some very relatable "oh sh/t I'm late" vibes:

[Estrella]

The election moratorium (i.e. a ban on polling and campaigning) starts tomorrow. Here are the last polls of the pollsters who released them in the past few days:

AKO / Sanep / Ipsos / Median / NMS
Pellegrini 40.4% / 35.6% / 37.4% / 34.2% / 34.2%
Korčok 38.6% / 33.1% / 36.6% / 35.7% / 36.0%
Harabin 10.3% / 12.0% / 11.3% / 11.4% / 16.0%
Matovič 2.9% / 5.2% / 4.3% / 3.2% / 4.0%
Forró 2.7% / 2.6% / 2.8% / 2.7% / 2.7%
Kubiš 1.9% / 3.6% / 2.4% / 3.2% / 2.8%
others 3.2% / 7.9% / 5.2% / 9.6% / 4.3%

The Ipsos poll also measured the candidates' core and potential support:

Pellegrini 21.3% / 50.5%
Korčok 24.6% / 46.3%
Harabin 6.3% / 25.2%
Matovič 1.6% / 8.2%
Forró 1.3% / 5.1%
Kubiš 0.7% / 10.9%

Korčok has reasons to be optimistic, at least for the first round: he's doing well with KDH and Matovič voters and there seems to be a strong mobilization of his "natural" PS-SaS-Dem base. Yesterday he ended his campaign with an impressive rally of 10,000 people.



Pellegrini too has a big reason to be optimistic, maybe for the first round but certainly for the runoff. I've talked about how the end of the Slota/Mečiar "tanks to Budapest" Slovak ethnonationalism means that Hungarians in Slovakia are much more open to voting for other parties. According to exit polls, last year Hungarians voted 60% Alliance, 10% Smer, 7% PS, 7% OĽANO and 5% Hlas. It's a huge change from a few years ago, not just because of the fall of the ethnic party – in its heyday, SMK used to win 80-90% in Hungarian-majority areas –  but because when Hungarians voted for Slovak parties, it was always against Fico, Mečiar or anyone seen as close to them. This year, polling says that 70-75% of Hungarian voters intend to support Pellegrini in the runoff, for reasons I explained at the end of this post. This will obviously help him, but there's another factor: Hungarian turnout used to be way above average, but in the 2010s it started falling and currently is actually far below average. I don't expect that to change this year, in fact the trend might even accelerate – as usual with minorities who are somewhat detached from the rest of the society, they only vote when they have a strong GOTV machine or their interests are at stake, and both of those things used to be true but aren't anymore.

Just as a demonstration of what I mean, here are the results of the 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019 presidential runoffs in the village my dad is from:



The trend is obvious, but 2004 is an outlier. Ivan Gašparovič was a close Mečiar associate who fell out with him and unexpectedly ended up being Mečiar's opponent in the runoff instead of the liberal Eduard Kukan. Hungarian voters had no love lost for Mečiar lite, so why did they swing to Mečiar the original? Take a look at the turnout:

[Estrella]

24,000 students from 180 high schools voted in mock elections. The results are… not surprising.



For comparison:

President 2014 (7,600 voters)
Andrej Kiska (ind. centrist) 36.7%
Radoslav Procházka (ind. conservative) 24.7%
Robert Fico (Smer) 10.5%
Milan Kňažko (ind. liberal) 9.9%
Helena Mezenská (ind. voodoo spiritual lunatic) 5.1%
Gyula Bárdos (SMK-MKP) 3.7%

President 2019
First round
Zuzana Čaputová (PS) 38.7%
Robert Mistrík (ex-SaS) 14.7% (IRL withdrew in favour of Čaputová)
Marian Kotleba (ĽSNS) 10.0%
Štefan Harabin (Vlasť) 7.6%
Maroš Šefčovič (Smer) 5.6%
Milan Krajniak (Sme rodina) 5.3%

Second round (17,000 voters)
Zuzana Čaputová (PS) 74.2%
Maroš Šefčovič (Smer) 25.8%

Also, at yesterday’s debate Róbert Švec withdrew and endorsed Štefan Harabin like Andrej Danko did. What that means in practice is that he’ll stay on the ballots (because they’re already being printed), the polling station staff will warn the voters not to vote for him, but if someone votes for him anyway, it will be valid.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Helena Mezenská (ind. voodoo spiritual lunatic) 5.1%

So she has Marianne Williamson vibes? No wonder she's such an Ordinary Person and Independent Personality!

[Estrella]

Helena Mezenská (ind. voodoo spiritual lunatic) 5.1%

So she has Marianne Williamson vibes? No wonder she's such an Ordinary Person and Independent Personality!

Yes.

I have read that you live on cosmic energy and sometimes you don’t eat. How can you function without food? Isn't that against nature?

It is in harmony with nature to listen to your heart and your inner voice. This told me that it is not only bread that we are nourished by. This is nothing new that should shock anyone. The season of Lent has shown me where our true strength is, who I really am and what my role is. I have seasons where I feel satiated even without food. Why pour more into a full cup? Is it the right thing to do? Is it natural?

You say that you believe in telepathy and teleportation and that you use it with people you are related to or in close contact with. Who do you communicate with in this way? Is it natural in your opinion?

Telepathy is a natural phenomenon and many people have their own experiences with it. It works especially between closely related people. Teleportation is nowadays being studied by many scientists, there is ongoing research in this direction. I will not let anyone take away my own experiences in this field even at the cost of ridicule and prejudice. I believe that we will not be this conservative forever.

Do you have the ability to heal people's health problems with your thoughts?

Many people tell me that they feel good around me, that there is a purification and liberation of the soul going on inside them, they feel stronger and more alive inside.

btw last year she stood for parliament for, of all parties, SNS

[Mike88]

Election day has arrived.

How is turnout so far, Estrella?

[Storr]

It is currently 5:15pm in Slovakia: "The election moratorium will be extended by 20 minutes, so it will last until 10:20 p.m. throughout Slovakia. The reason is the collapse of a member of the commission in one of the electoral districts in Senec. This was announced by the chairman of the state election commission, Eduard Burda. (tasar)"

https://dennikn.sk/minuta/3900805/

[Estrella]

Election day has arrived.

How is turnout so far, Estrella?

Everyone agrees it will increase from the 49% last time, but nobody agrees how much. One pollster predicted it will be around 63%, which seems way too high, but who knows.

It is currently 5:15pm in Slovakia: "The election moratorium will be extended by 20 minutes, so it will last until 10:20 p.m. throughout Slovakia. The reason is the collapse of a member of the commission in one of the electoral districts in Senec. This was announced by the chairman of the state election commission, Eduard Burda. (tasar)"

https://dennikn.sk/minuta/3900805/

Shame, I was hoping for a repeat of this from last time round:

The polls have just closed, but we aren't gonna results for a while. Voting has been extended in a village in the east of the country, where a drunk local councillor stole the ballot box, opened it and threw out the 285 ballots that were inside (they managed to collect them afterwards). The results can't be released until every polling station has closed. Still, lol.

Some links for the election night:

Denník N results page: https://dennikn.sk/prezidentske-volby-2024/ (probably the best)
Pravda results page: https://volby.pravda.sk/prezidentske-volby/vysledky (also really good)
RTVS livestream: https://www.rtvs.sk/televizia/live-1 (Slovak public TV)
ČT24 livestream: https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/clanek/domaci/zive-vysilani-ct24-46670#live (Czech public TV, usually has great coverage and covers Slovak elections for the same reason Australian TV covers New Zealand elections)

I don't think there will be any exit polls, but the count will be quicker than in September and we should have nearly all results by 2 AM or so.