Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[Estrella]

So Pellegrini will be willing to serve under a Fico government?

Definitely. Of course the reason he parted ways with Fico was that he wanted to be PM, but that's clearly not happening, so this would be the next best thing. The big question is whether he'd be willing to serve under a Šimečka government. I'd say no, but if Smer+Hlas+SNS+SR don't get a majority without Republika and PS+Hlas+SaS+KDH+SR do get a majority without OĽANO, then all bets are off.

[Estrella]

KDH candidate Robert Dohál threatened with cutting off heads. After questions he was removed from the list.

Robert Dohál is the chairman of the Krakovany-Stráže agricultural cooperative in the Piešťany district. He is involved in regenerative agriculture where the land is not ploughed. In the forthcoming parliamentary elections, he is standing for the KDH on the 60th place on the list.

Ecology student Patrícia Krausová was all the more surprised when she started receiving aggressive messages from Dohál three weeks before the elections, where he also wrote about "cutting off heads". He wrote to her about the platform of Progressive Slovakia, even though the student had nothing to do with the party.

"If someone were to teach my grandchildren such monstrous things, I would personally cut off their heads. Just as any orthodox Muslim would," Dohál wrote to the student.

[Estrella]

In economy news, whoever leads the next government will have some difficult things to deal with. This year's inflation is 8.8%, the highest in the Eurozone. The deficit is predicted to be around 6.5% of GDP, which would make it the second biggest in the EU after Italy. This is especially troubling because of the dire need for investments in healthcare: the average GP is 60 years old and there are over 200 vacant pediatrician positions. On the other hand, unemployment is 4%, the economy should grow by 1.3% (both better than EU average) and Slovakia apparently still has the lowest inequality in EU, so... yay, I guess?

In campaign news, Fico went on attack against Pellegrini, or as he put it, "Smer is calling on left-wing and social democratic voters not to support Hlas and have their vote misused for building a right-wing government composed of Hlas, progressives, liberals and who knows what else. It will not be stable, it will not be social, it will not be able to stop illegal immigration, it will only deepen social divides and disturb the society with questions of gender ideology." This, by the way, nicely shows that Smer still sees itself as a left-wing party.

Fico, like SNS, also ruled out a coalition with Republika because of their proposed referendum on leaving NATO ("the foreign policy orientation of Slovakia must stay as it is"). According to analysts, he's banking on Hlas voters being put off by Pelle's indecisiveness and coming home to Smer on the one hand, and Republika having not just nihilistic protest voters, but also those that want to vote for a party that could participate in government.

In crime news, former TV comedian and now OĽANO MP Jozef Pročko was badly wounded when he got punched in the head during a campaign rally (and also had eggs thrown at him). Just a few days earlier, an OĽANO candidate was booted from the list after he got spat on by a heckler while campaigning and returned the favour by punching him in the face.

In more important crime news, the National Criminal Agency raided the offices of the Military Intelligence (VS) and several private homes. Sixteen people were arrested, including a former director of the Military Intelligence Service (a predecessor of VS), a former director of the Military Defence Intelligence (another predecessor of VS), a businessman who is also a close friend of the Prosecutor General and *checks notes* a former president of the Slovak Ice Hockey Federation. The police seized, among other things, classified documents, €320,000 in cash, gold bars, a bottle of Royal Salute whisky worth €26,000, two luxury apartments and bank accounts containing over €11 million. The source of all this was a series of overpriced contracts that led to some €74 million of public money getting funnelled to private pockets.

[DavidB.]

A voting advice application for Slovakia can be found here. Google Translate works decently enough. The responses of some of the parties are quite a trip. Kind of weird that a lot of parties have no responses to some questions at all.

My result:
SNS 76%
Republika 69%
SOS 62%
Smer - SD 57%
OL'aNO 56%
SDKU - DS 54%
KDH 52%
SHO 52%
HLAS - SD 50%
Sme rodina 48%
Szövetség - Aliancia 45%
Demokrati 42%
Piráti 40%
SaS 39%
PS 38%
Modrí + Most-Híd 30%

[RGM2609]

My results:
Modri-Most - 81%
PS - 75%
Pirati - 70%
SaS - 69%
Dems - 60%
Alliance - 55%
OLaNO - 54%
KDH - 52%
SDKU-DS - 51%
SR - 48%
Hlas - 46%
SNS - 44%
Smer - 40%
Republika - 37%
SHO - 33%
SOS - 29%

So I guess I'd be in the 1% Dzurinda diehards, lol.

[Estrella]

It's looking like we'll end up with a very fragmented result without a clear winner, decided by a coin toss about crossing the threshold. So why not make a map of another election that was just like that?





HZDS: populist-authoritarian opposition party of wannabe dictator ex-PM Vladimír Mečiar, now unconvincingly pretending to be pro-European moderate conservatives. Did best in small towns hit hard by the privatization and collapse of old industries: Váh and Nitra valleys in the northwest and Hron and Hornád valleys in the centre. They also dominated in the traditionally nationalist Kysuce region and did well in the very rural and very poor northeast.

SDKÚ: liberal-conservative governing party of reformist PM Mikuláš Dzurinda. Crushed it in Bratislava, a bastion of liberalism that reaped much of the riches brought by the Tatra Tiger era. Did well in Bratislava suburbs, in other big cities (Košice, Prešov, Banská Bystrica) and in the touristy High Tatras region, but pretty badly everywhere else, worst of all in Kysuce (nationalism) and Gemer (collapse of heavy industry, 35% unemployment).

Smer: The personal vehicle of charismatic ex-communist populist Robert Fico. In this election he campaigned as a "third way" between Mečiar and Dzurinda, with a combination of standard socdem rhetoric typical for the era ("we want to belong among modern European parties, such as British and Israeli labourists or German SPD") and a milder version of the nationalist-conservative populism we know him for today. Their map is the opposite of what would become typical for the party: stronger in the west, weaker in the east, otherwise no pronounced strongholds.

SMK-MKP: the party of ethnic Hungarians. Moderate conservatives, not even autonomist let alone separatist. Their percentage is everywhere basically the same as the percentage of Hungarian population: slightly higher in fact, because of Hungarians' higher turnout motivated by excesses of Slovak nationalism, courtesy of Ján Slota et al. Won some positively North Korean results on Rye Island near Bratislava and in a narrow strip along the Hungarian border. They got 75% in Komárno district, 86% in Dunajská Streda district and over 90% in 108 municipalities, peaking at 98.9% in Stará Bašta/Óbást. Conversely, they received zero votes in 1333 municipalities.

KDH: a very, very socially conservative and pro-European party, unofficially (and sometimes officially) endorsed by Roman Catholic clergy. Doing best in deeply religious rural areas in the north of the country, with a history of clerical influence dating back to when they were swept by Protestantism, to which the Church responded with a particularly brutal counter-reformation. Also does well in Trnava (nicknamed "Little Rome" for a reason) and Skalica (a conservative SDKÚ/KDH/OĽANO stronghold since forever). Weak spots surrounded by otherwise strong KDH territory are non-Roman Catholic areas: Myjava in the west (majority Lutheran) and Medzilaborce in the east (majority Greek Catholic).

ANO: an alleged "liberal" party with no actual policies led by a somewhat Berlusconian figure, TV network owner/oligarch/gangster Pavol Rusko (later Minister of Economy, now in jail for a €70 million fraud and attempted murder). Had they been actual liberals their map would make no sense, but then their actual purpose was securing a liberal flow of money to Rusko's pockets. I suspect that they got the same kind of "neither Dzurinda nor Mečiar" vote in the east of the country that went to Fico in the west, but I have no idea what's the reason for this divide. Rusko was at one point close to Rudolf Schuster's SOP and he may have inherited their Košice machine, but that's just a guess.

KSS: unreformed commies with no policies other than praising comrade Husák and the 1948-1989 dictatorship. Their best areas were the poor and isolated far east of the country and some random places elsewhere hit particularly hard by deindustrialization, usually isolated valleys, rural rather than small-town, but with little else in common.

PSNS: an ideologically identical split from SNS caused by some internal psychodrama. Led by Ján Slota, former SNS leader and mayor of Žilina. Come on, guess where Žilina is.

SNS: a nationalist, aggressively anti-Hungarian and arguably neo-fascist party. At the time led by Anna Belousovová, the only person Slota hated more than Hungarians. PSNS took away their traditional Kysuce stronghold and they were reduced to nationalist protest votes in the deindustrializing Nitra valley – although why they did so poorly in other similar areas and completely bombed in the east is a mystery to me.

HZD: An utterly shameless copycat of HZDS down to the name and abbreviation, whose sole purpose was to act as a kind of HZDS without Mečiar for disgruntled "neither Mečiar nor Dzurinda" voters. Led by Ivan Gašparovič, Speaker of Parliament under Mečiar, later twice elected President (2004-2014). Won 42% in Gašparovič's hometown of Poltár and pretty average results everywhere else, although doing surprisingly badly in the east.

SDA: Brigita Schmögnerová my beloved A left-liberal, anti-nationalist, socially progressive party with a bonkers campaign bus. Obviously did best in and around big cities (3% in Bratislava, 4% in Košice).

SDĽ: the official successor to the ruling Communist Party of Slovakia, now failing miserably after winning 15% in the previous election, implementing a radical programme of economic liberalization and splitting six ways from Sunday (SDA and Smer are both SDĽ splinters). The only thing their "strongholds" have in common is that they're very rural, with scattered farmsteads in the northwest and tiny villages (like 100-200 people) in the northeast.

[S019]

My results:

Modrí + Most-Híd: 83%
Progresívne Slovensko: 78%
Demokrati: 71%
Piráti: 68%
SaS: 60%
SDKÚ - DS: 58%
Szövetség - Aliancia: 57%
KDH: 53%
Sme rodina: 53%
OĽaNO + koalícia: 50%
SHO: 48%
HLAS - SD: 44%
SMER - SD: 39%
Republika: 38%
SOS: 33%
SNS: 30%

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

My results

Progresívne Slovensko 71 %
Modrí + Most-Híd 71%
SaS 66 %
Piráti 63 %
HLAS - SD 58 %
Demokrati 56 %
Sme rodina 56 %
Szövetség - Aliancia 54 %
SMER - SD 52%
SDKÚ - DS 52 %
SNS 50 %
KDH 44 %
SHO 44 %
OĽaNO + koalícia 42 %
Republika 40 %
SOS 33%


As expected, PS is the best fit, but no one is really great for a left-lib like me

[YL]

Modrí+Most-Híd 83%
PS 80%
Piráti 76%
SaS 74%
Demokrati 65%
SDKÚ - DS 57%
Szövetség - Aliancia 56%
HLAS - SD 56%
KDH 53%
OĽaNO + koalícia 53%
Sme rodina 53%
SMER - SD 46%
SHO 41%
SNS 40%
Republika 29%
SOS 27%

A lot of these seem a bit high, possibly because I skipped a few questions.

[Estrella]

AKO poll for JOJ24 from early August
Should the next government continue military aid to Ukraine? yes / no

Total 43 / 52
PS 90 / 9
SaS 86 / 13
KDH 75 / 18
Demokrati 73 / 27
OĽANO 69 / 29
Sme rodina 46 / 51
Hlas 43 / 47
Szövetség 27 / 73
Smer 9 / 89
Republika 9 / 91
SNS 8 / 89
Slovaks 46 / 50
Hungarians 23 / 68
Others (Roma, Rusyns, Czechs) 27 / 66
Men 42 / 51
Women 45 / 51
18–33 years 50 / 46
34–49 years 43 / 52
50–65 years 37 / 58
66+ years 44 / 48
Primary or vocational school 35 / 57
High school 42 / 52
University 55 / 36
Bratislava region 61 / 36
Rest of the country 41 / 54 (my calculation)

This poll will tell you more about the main fault line in Slovak politics than any attempt to sort parties by economic left and right, social conservatism and liberalism, nationalism and populism or lack thereof. Not because the question being asked is that important, but because it's a proxy for something else. You can see that if you take a look at support by party and realize all potential coalitions I've talked about are between parties from one end of the pro-Western/pro-Russian scale or the other, with some overlap in the middle.

I can't find the post right now, but I remember RGM once talked about how the main divide in Romanian politics is not left or right, or progressive or conservative, but between people who want the country to be "Western" or "Eastern". It's just the same in Slovakia. It's not about international alignment (even though that's a part of it), but a fork in the road between a liberal democracy with human rights, free markets and a welfare state on the one hand, and an authoritarian regime with a clientelistic, neo-feudal economy captured by oligarchs on the other.

It's obvious why "Western" people think the way they do. Many of them belong to the well-educated, prosperous middle-class who got where they are thanks to post-1989 liberalization of economy and society that opened them a world of opportunity. They are the liberals who vote for PS, SaS, Dems or in the past SDKÚ. Then there are the principled conservatives of KDH (and to an extent Dems, OĽANO and SDKÚ), usually rural and religious. Another group is socially conservative, anti-system, populist, often economically left-leaning and nationalist, yet anti-Smer and anti-authoritarian. This is where many of Sme rodina, Hlas and OĽANO votes come from.

What about the "Eastern" people? Some are simply far-right, not very different from other such types elsewhere in Europe. They are the ones who vote for Republika, ĽSNS and SNS, but they are just one part of this half of society. All over Eastern Europe, forty years of Communist dictatorship destroyed any traces of civil society that could have acted as a mediator in politics: there were only elites, people, and anger in between. Add other consequences of totalitarianism – poverty, no tradition of rule of law – and you get the perfect storm for populism.

That explains a lot, but not the Russophilia. In Slovakia, there's also the issue of our particular brand of nationalism. During the 19th century, Slovak nationalists supported tsarist Russia because they saw pan-Slavism as something that could free them from Hungarian domination. In early 20th century, Czechoslovakia was a prosperous democracy, but Slovaks were only the third largest ethnicity after Czechs and Germans. The government was Czech – even policemen in Slovakia were Czech* – and to Slovaks it looked like there was no place for them in democratic politics. This is what led to the rising popularity of HSĽS and their brand of anti-democratic (and by extension anti-Western) nationalist clerical fascism, and eventualy to the creation of the collaborationist Slovak State.

Then came the communists. After the first and only post-war democratic election (which in the Slovak part of the country they lost to conservatives 63-31), they couped their way into power. Ironically, it was this dictatorship that gave Slovaks a sense of belonging. They had as much of a say in politics as Czechs: none, but at least the bosses in Prague and soldiers machine-gunning people at the Iron Curtain were Slovaks too. The fascist Jozef Tiso and communist Gustáv Husák were the first to make Slovaks feel like they had a country. If you ask me, this is why anti-Western and pro-Russian feelings are so strong here.

What about Slovak Hungarians? A part of why their support of Ukraine is so low is just that they're subject to the same factors that make some Slovaks more pro-Russia. Basically all Hungarian-majority areas other than Rye Island are poorer than average, and regions like Novohrad and Gemer have the highest unemployment in the country. People who identify as ethnically Hungarian are also more rural, which is down to the fact that people who grow up in a mixed environment usually consider themselves Slovak even though they're fluent Hungarian speakers (like yours truly).

You also shouldn't underestimate the role of the media. Hungarian-language media in Slovakia are no Orbánists – the daily Új Szó and magazine Napunk are branches of liberal SME and Denník N, and various online and local media are generally apolitical. But Rádio Patria is about as interesting as listening to paint dry and there are no Hungarian-language TV channels, so many people end up watching Orbán-controlled Hungarian TV with all that entails. There's also Csemadok, an organization I have the distinct displeasure of knowing the internal workings of and who can get f/cked (I wrote about them earlier in this thread).

_{* admittedly, this was because in the Habsburg era, civil service, police etc were entirely Hungarian and there were simply not enough qualified Slovaks to fill those positions. But it still led to resentment and cultural clash, which interestingly still lives on in a phrase you might tell a classmate who keeps writing down every word the teacher says: píšeš ako český žandár, "you write like a Czech cop". Apparently 1920s Slovaks were really confused by this new custom of writing reports instead of just beating up all the troublemakers.}

[DavidB.]

Thank you for this insight, very interesting and clear.

The numbers for both Sme rodina and Hlas surprise me - the former because support for Ukraine is relatively high compared to similar parties (SNS, Republika), the latter because support for Ukraine seems relatively low compared to my expectations; I'd expect the more pro-Russian/'left-wing conservative' voters to go for Smer and for Hlas to have a more Western-like Social Democratic profile.

You touched upon it briefly in the above part, but how does Sme rodina's base differ from that of SNS/Republika (and what is the difference between those two in terms of base)? And who are the Hlas voters who oppose support for Ukraine - what makes them not vote Smer or SNS/Republika?

[Estrella]

Thank you for this insight, very interesting and clear.

The numbers for both Sme rodina and Hlas surprise me - the former because support for Ukraine is relatively high compared to similar parties (SNS, Republika), the latter because support for Ukraine seems relatively low compared to my expectations; I'd expect the more pro-Russian/'left-wing conservative' voters to go for Smer and for Hlas to have a more Western-like Social Democratic profile.

You touched upon it briefly in the above part, but how does Sme rodina's base differ from that of SNS/Republika (and what is the difference between those two in terms of base)? And who are the Hlas voters who oppose support for Ukraine - what makes them not vote Smer or SNS/Republika?

It's hard to tell who exactly votes for what party because Slovakia doesn't really do detailed crosstabs or poll vote transfers, but I did find an interesting article about Sme rodina:

Women are a majority of their electorate. "The middle aged category of 35-54-year-olds is dominant (two-fifths to half) and then the younger age category under 35 (about a third)," Slosiarik said. The over-55 category has the smallest representation.

Roughly half of voters often fall into the centrist position, and the liberal and conservative positions are represented by about an equal fifth of voters. "Relatively, the most common style of politics is social-democratic (about 40 percent)," Slosiarik said. By contrast, the progressive type of politics is marginal.

However, We Are Family has had a very interesting electorate from the start. Of all the parties and movements, it has the most migrants - although its voters will leave, new ones will come. "It's a very volatile electorate. For example, in the 2020 election it turned out that just under a third of their voters in the 2020 election voted for We Are Family in 2016. And today it turns out that it will not be very different, i.e. that the electorate changes quite significantly over time," the head of the Focus agency assessed.

The voters of OĽaNO and Hlas are more often considering voting for Kollár's movement, while PS, SaS and KDH are also considering it to a lesser extent. "The voters of Sme rodina themselves most often mention Hlas as their second choice, and again to a lesser extent also OĽaNO, Hlas and SaS," he added.

So basically young or middle aged, probably working class, doesn't really pay attention to politics, socially conservative in a vague "people should be normal" way, likes charismatic politicians, doesn't remember communism and has no nostalgic memories of it but does remember Fico being in politics since they were a kid and thinks he is a careerist crook. This is, it seems, a growing group of voters and they don't just vote Sme rodina. Anecdotally, OĽANO did very well with such voters in 2020, as well as with first-time voters and apolitical people (turnout was the highest since 2002). They're in a way the most average voter segment, and I guess that's why Sme rodina gets a similar number as national average.

Hlas isn't really a Western-like socdem party except in branding. They're populists, not because they have extreme positions but because they always come up with the most bland, inoffensive, I-support-more-fluffy-bunnies proposals imaginable. Their posters say things like "Stop price increases!" or "Do you want cheaper food?" and so on. I'll admit I don't have any data to back this up, but I'd split Hlas half into people like what I described above, and half old Smer voters who were furious with their party in 2020 and maybe would vote for Fico now if Pellegrini wasn't standing. Many of the latter did return to Smer (there's a reason why *checks polls* Hlas fell like 15 points since and Smer rose 10 over the past two years), but I guess others are a part of the *checks polls* 5% who remember why they left Smer overnight after 21 February 2018 and never came back.

Also, Smer used to have a much wider base in Slovak society, especially after it hoovered up old HZDS/SDĽ/KSS voters in late 2000s. If you add up what Smer is getting in the polls and half of Hlas, you get something like the 28% they won in 2016 (considered an awful result at the time), or 29% in 2006. So I guess this is in part a return to normal, and Hlas voters aren't more pro-Ukraine because they're just old Smer voters who think Fico is a [expletive deleted].
 
Smer, SNS and presumably the Smer-y half of Hlas have a very similar voter base: strong in post-industrial areas in the northwest, poor and rural northeast and the nationalist region of Kysuce, strong in villages and smaller towns and, most importantly, strong among the old – their voters are probably majority pensioner these days. I can't overstate how huge the age divide is: in the poll at the top of the page, Smer+Hlas+SNS get 55% among those older than 65, but only 18% among 18-35 year olds.

In their 2016 breakthrough, ĽSNS did spectacularly well among first time voters with 23%. That was a one off and they came down do 11% in 2020, but today Republika still does better with young people and in the poll above their support decreases with age. They're partly an edgy protest vote, partly a standard far-right party, partly a more radical Smer for young people.

There's also a geographic difference with Smer/SNS. ĽSNS did (and presumably Republika will) do best in the Banská Bystrica region in centre-south of the country, partly because it was Kotleba's base but mostly because of the hladové doliny ("hunger valleys") in the Gemer and Novohrad regions that I talked about earlier as being hit hardest with closure of heavy industry and having the highest unemployment in the country. The southern parts are Hungarian and ĽSNS with their Slota-esque tanks-to-Budapest attitude bombed there, but in the northern parts they often won over 20%. Take a look at these results from last time round:

Jelšava (had a mine and an army base, both closed) OĽANO 32%, Smer 20%, ĽSNS 16%
Cinobaňa ("Tin Mine") Smer 26%, OĽANO 22%, ĽSNS 17%
Sirk (had ironworks that closed back in early 1900s) Smer 32%, ĽSNS 25%, OĽANO 19%
Rimavská Baňa ("Rimava Mine") ĽSNS 25%, Smer 23%, OĽANO 22%
Magnezitovce ("Magnesiteville") Smer 33%, ĽSNS 26%, Sme rodina 9%

One more thing: the kind of anti-Smer populist voter I talked about in the first paragraph that voted OĽANO in 2020 now needs to go somewhere. I won't be surprised if either turnout falls, or some party gets an election day surge.

[Nhoj]

It is interesting that the oldest voters are technically the second most pro Ukraine in this poll.  Not sure if that's down more to media habits or because its people who would remember the 1968 invasion.

[Estrella]

It is interesting that the oldest voters are technically the second most pro Ukraine in this poll.  Not sure if that's down more to media habits or because its people who would remember the 1968 invasion.

Good point! I think it's both. 1968 was a traumatic event for everyone who remembers it. Anecdotally, my grandma was an SNS voter nostalgic for the communists, but every August she talked about how she "lived through war when the Russkies came". As for the media, older people mostly get their news from mainstream newspapers and TV rather than online conspiracists like Slobodný vysielač or Infovojna ("Infowar", has exactly the sort of politics you'd expect but much more grounded than Alex Jones).

[Estrella]

The Ukraine poll above comes from JOJ24 (a pretty high quality news channel launched last year by, strangely enough, the trashy sensationalist TV JOJ) and their fascinating Electoral Encyclopedia of Slovakia. Over the past two months they commissioned a million different polls on every topic imaginable, with crosstabs by party, age, gender, region and ethnicity. Here are some of the more interesting ones:

Trust in institutions: Army 72%, Police 66%, President 60%, National Criminal Agency 52%, Courts 43%, Cabinet 37%, Parliament 31%

Leave NATO: yes 20%, no 73%
Support by party: Republika 58, SNS 42, Smer 38, Sme rodina 25, OĽANO 19, Hlas 11, KDH 4, SaS 2, PS 1

Leave EU: yes 16%, no 80%
Support by party: Republika 50, SNS 31, Smer 28, Hlas 14, OĽANO 11, Sme rodina 7, KDH 6, PS 3, SaS 2

End dependence on Russian oil, gas and nuclear fuel: yes 44%, no 48%
Support by party: PS 85, SaS 79, OĽANO 72, KDH 60, Sme rodina 35, Hlas 30, Republika 16, SNS 14, Smer 9

Four-day workweek: would be good for the economy 41%, would be bad for the economy 50%
More support: better educated, voters of PS, SaS, KDH, Sme rodina, Republika
Less support: less educated, voters of Smer, Hlas, SNS

More women in politics: important 52%, not important 40%

More young people under 30 in politics: important 43%, not important 51%

Should environmental protection be a priority? yes 64%, no 31%
Support by party: PS 91, KDH 83, SaS 73, OĽANO 67, Hlas 67, Sme rodina 65, Smer 46, SNS 44, Republika 38

Should the healthcare system be reformed? yes 94%, no 3% (lol)

Ban keeping hens in cages: yes 52%, no 38%

Ban manufacture of cars with combustion engines: yes 18%, no 75%
Support by party: PS 34, OĽANO 29, Sme rodina 27, KDH 23, Hlas 22, SaS 18, Smer 13, Republika 6, SNS 6
Note: one of SaS pet issues is "bullying of motorists"

Lower punishments for marijuana: yes 67%, no 28%
Context: there have been cases of people growing medical marijuana for their own use being sentenced to 10+ years in prison and having their homes confiscated, resulting in much controversy and presidential pardons.
Support by party: SaS 94, PS 90, Sme rodina 77, Hlas 70, OĽANO 63, KDH 62, Smer 58, SNS 51, Republika 36

Registered partnerships for same-sex couples: yes 40%, no 54%
Support by party: SaS 84, PS 82, Hlas 44, OĽANO 36, Sme rodina 32, KDH 26, SNS 20, Republika 14, Smer 13
Support by age: 18–33yo 51%, 34–49yo 40%, 50–65yo 35%, 66+yo 33%
In another poll, 60% support same-sex couples being able to inherit and 21% being able to adopt.

Stricter fight against illegal migration: yes 78%, no 17%

Ban Sunday shopping: yes 33%, no 64%
Support by party: Republika 49, Sme rodina 46, KDH 38, OĽANO 36, others below 30

Should the government fight disinformation and hoaxes? yes 82%, no 13%
Support by party: Republika 63, SNS 66, everyone else above 70

Continue financing religious organizations with public money: yes 38%, no 55%
Support by party: KDH 72, OĽANO 61, SNS 49, Hlas 45, Republika 42, Sme rodina 40, Smer 37, PS 17, SaS 10

Total abortion ban: yes 13%, no 83%
Support by party: KDH 30, OĽANO 20, Republika 18, SNS 16, Smer 15, Sme rodina 14, Hlas 7, PS 4, SaS 0

[Estrella]

In 2014, various student unions, activist groups, social research institutes and regional governments banded together to organize mock elections for high school students. Obviously they aren't very representative of the actual election, but it's still fun and/or slightly terrifying to find out how high schoolers would vote. Here are the results, if you're curious.

President 2014 (7,600 voters)
Andrej Kiska (ind. centrist) 36.7%
Radoslav Procházka (ind. conservative) 24.7%
Robert Fico (Smer) 10.5%
Milan Kňažko (ind. liberal) 9.9%
Helena Mezenská (ind. voodoo spiritual lunatic) 5.1%
Gyula Bárdos (SMK-MKP) 3.7%

European Parliament 2014 (6,200 voters)
Smer 11.6%
ĽSNS 10.8%
OĽANO 8.8%
SaS 6.7%
KDH 6.3%
SMS 6.1% (party of superstar hockey player Jozef Golonka, basically our Wayne Gretzky)
NOVA 4.9% (conservative)
Most-Híd 4.5%
TIP 4.3% (right-liberal)
SNS 4.0%
SZ 3.9% (Green Party)
PaS 3.8% (anti-corruption populists led by Peter Puškár, the brother of a well-known TV presenter, endorsed by a well-known rapper who made a campaign song for him. A few years later Puškár changed his legal name to Tony Tesla, went to prison for a €7 million tax and insurance fraud and is now being prosecuted because his company made up thousands of fake employees to receive covid stimulus money)

Parliament 2016 (5,800 voters)
Sme rodina 16.4%
ĽSNS 15.5%
OĽANO 11.7%
Smer 9.8%
SaS 9.1%
#Sieť 7.7%
KDH 5.4%
Most-Híd 4.6%

President 2019
First round
Zuzana Čaputová (PS) 38.7%
Robert Mistrík (ex-SaS) 14.7% (IRL withdrew in favour of Čaputová)
Marian Kotleba (ĽSNS) 10.0%
Štefan Harabin (Vlasť) 7.6%
Maroš Šefčovič (Smer) 5.6%
Milan Krajniak (Sme rodina) 5.3%

Second round (17,000 voters)
Zuzana Čaputová (PS) 74.2%
Maroš Šefčovič (Smer) 25.8%

European Parliament 2019 (10,000 voters)
ĽSNS 15.8%
PS–Spolu 12.5%
OĽANO 9.8%
Sme rodina 7.7%
SaS 6.5%
Smer 6.3%
Priama demokracia 5.2% (party of Malian-Slovak comedian and perennial candidate Ibrahim Maiga)

Parliament 2020 (35,000 voters)
PS–Spolu 23.4%
OĽANO 16.3%
ĽSNS 10.9%
Za ľudí 9.6%
Sme rodina 9.2%
SaS 7.1%
KDH 4.1%
Smer 4.1%
Vlasť 2.2%
Dobrá voľba 2.2%

Governors 2022 (22,000 voters)
Bratislava: Juraj Droba (SaS) 58.7%
Trnava: Martin Červenka (Hlas) 23.4%
Nitra: Martina Holečková (KDH) 16.7%
Trenčín: Peter Máťoš (KDH) 31.7%
Žilina: Erika Jurinová (OĽANO) 32.7%
Banská Bystrica: Ondrej Lunter (ind. centre-right) 45.9%
Prešov: Milan Majerský (KDH) 42.7%
Košice: Rastislav Trnka (ind. centre-right) 26.3%

Fast forward to today. OĽANO is completely discredited, Za ľudí is dead, ĽSNS fell apart, Sme rodina is in the news only because of a catfight between Kollár and his girlfriends, KDH appeals only to religious schools, SaS only to rich Bratislavans and, well, the one constant throughout all these elections is that Smer's popularity ranks somewhere between cancer and bubonic plague. I wonder what result we get toda-AHAHAHAHAHAHA



Honorable mention to Pirate Party who won 2.6% and finished ahead of SNS and Sme rodina.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

that presumably can't bode well for Smer in future elections when these students actually vote.

[Storr]

Translated using google translate, so there are probably some translation errors:
"For MP Fico (and those who have a similar view of the army)"

"In the past few days, we have all witnessed the "top" event that was shaken by the media, that is, the deteriorating situation with migrants crossing our borders.

On the car ride, I listened to various reactions to this situation on the radio. MP Robert Fico was one of those who contributed to this media discussion. If he remained at the level of criticism - whether justified or not - regarding the procedures or not/activity of the authorities responsible for solving such situations, I probably would not deal with it.

I was interested in the deputy's "proposal" to deploy members of the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic to support the resolution of this situation. Even that would probably not be a reason for a reaction, since the armed forces more or less standardly support the police force in such and similar situations. Whether it was during the pandemic, refugee crises, including the one caused by the war in Ukraine, or crises caused by natural disasters or technological accidents, for example during the fire in Banská Štiavnica. It is a matter of course for us, we are here to help where it is necessary and where the authorized authorities decide on it.

Although our primary mission is the defense of the Slovak Republic, one of the most frequent activities of the armed forces is precisely the activities to support domestic crisis management. By the way, maybe the public doesn't even know or perceive it anymore, but the Slovak Armed Forces still have several dozen soldiers deployed to support the Border and Foreign Police on the eastern border, and this operation has been going on since March last year.

So, what was it that prompted me to react? It was the statement of MP Fico (which I am only paraphrasing, since I was, of course, not taking notes while driving the car) that "while the government was able to deploy soldiers against the citizens of the Slovak Republic during covid, it is no longer willing to allocate soldiers to protect them". And to that he added the literally dishonorable "argument" that "there are hundreds of soldiers in Poland who are playing soldiers and have nothing to do, so we can send them to guard the borders."

Yes, perhaps the authorized authorities could have handled this migration crisis more agilely and decisively. After all, we already have several experiences with it. The press releases of the President of the Police Force, where he presented the reasons why this is not actually possible, whether for "Fico's" confirmation, Hungary, the European Union, the "toy" fence, the missing policemen..., certainly did not reassure the citizens of the affected regions in any way, nor did they assure that the responsible the authorities have the situation under control. A higher presence of police (and soldiers) at the beginning of the crisis would definitely help more than the press releases. But the fact is that the government, not the president of the police force, decides on the deployment of policemen and soldiers, and that he has repeatedly asked for it.

And on the subject of the "soldiers" in Lešť - a multinational battle group under the leadership of the Army of the Czech Republic is stationed in the Lešť Training Center as part of NATO, to which the armies of Germany, Slovenia and the USA also contribute. This group also includes our Slovak mortar platoon of around 25 soldiers and a support team. So in Poland, our armed forces have only less than 30 soldiers, which would certainly not be enough to support the police force. And our soldiers are definitely not playing "soldiers" there.

The purpose, mission and tasks of the multinational combat group are very well known, and I don't want to believe that the three-time prime minister, three-time chairman of the Security Council of the Slovak Republic and at the same time a long-time member of the National Council would not know about it. If only because the presence of this militant group on our territory was approved by the parliament, of which Mr. Fico is a member.

Mr Fico - maybe in a few weeks you will become a four-time prime minister and prime minister. And as with your three periods of government, you may face crises like this or others that are hard to predict today. But surely those crises will come, and the company under (perhaps) your leadership will have to face them. And just like during your three previous terms in the prime minister's chair, you will also rely on us, the members of the Slovak Armed Forces.

All those whom you, perhaps in a rush of emotions, perhaps in the heat of the pre-election battle, or perhaps lack of concentration, called "soldiers who play soldiers"! And we, despite the fact that we will remember, we will come and help. Despite the fact that the armed forces are understaffed, perhaps even more acutely than the police force, they have a significant material and technological deficit. But we do not lack determination, commitment and pride. Pride in the Slovak Republic, our homeland, the citizens of the Slovak Republic who support us and rely on us, the representation of Slovakia in the world through missions and operations abroad, our commitments in international organizations and many other reasons for our pride.

Members of the Slovak Armed Forces, soldiers and employees will fulfill their tasks and fulfill their mission. Not (only) because it is so in the constitution and laws, but because we know it is our mission. The armed forces have already deployed several hundred soldiers to support the police force in this crisis. Not because of your (defamatory) statements, but because it was decided by the government and because it is necessary for the security of the country and rightly for the reassurance of our citizens.

Mr Fico - in any developed country, political representatives will not allow themselves to dishonor their own armed forces. The political representatives of these countries are rather proud of their armed forces. It is one of the pillars of statehood and one of the pillars of security and support for the country's inhabitants. And their condition, equipment and occupancy reflects the level of support and attention from the politicians responsible for running the armed forces. You should remember this (and not only) in case you really become prime minister for the fourth time. It will help you, it will help us and it will help the citizens of the Slovak Republic.

"Disclaimer" - if anyone thought that I would somehow want to influence the elections, or the preferences of candidates or political parties, I can assure everyone that this is definitely not my goal. I would react the same after the election, during the election or in the middle of the election period. And the same in the event that MP Fico or anyone else would come up with such a slander of the armed forces. The armed forces of the Slovak Republic deserve the protection of their good name, regardless of whether or not it is a pre-election period.

Major General Ing. Ivan PACH
commander of the ground forces of the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic"

[Estrella]

Some context: over the past few weeks there's been a minor refugee... crisis? on the border with Hungary. Turns out that Viktor the Great Protector of the European Civilization from Barbarian Hordes™ actually can't even protect the borders of his own damn country, and so many migrants are entering Hungary and going further through Slovakia. This problem has gotten worse after Hungary released 1400 prisoners convicted for people smuggling. Admittedly we aren't that good at guarding our border either, which in turn led Czechia to introduce controls on the Slovak border earlier this year and Poland to do so just yesterday. Fico is trying to make as much hay of this as he can.

Fico visited a factory in Veľký Krtíš where some 700 migrants are being detained to talk with them and make a campaign video. In the video he talks about "this stupid progressive government that follows the principles of Soros migrant policy". Together with, well, pretty much everything general Pach talks about, it tells you a lot about how he shifted into basically a far-right conspiracist. Pellegrini gave an unusually honest assessment of him: "It's his style of politics. I think he's doing it purely for reasons of pragmatism and power. I think he's a cold-blooded technologist of power who sees half a percent and picks it up. I think he moved outside the social democratic environment, more towards an extreme environment and radical rhetoric. We'll see if it's just theatre to get voters and then things will work just as before, or if he's serious."

Other stuff from the home stretch of the campaign:

1. Fico is trying to seduce KDH to join him in government. Majerský hasn't said yes, but he doesn't seem to be saying no either. Relatedly, Christian Union MP Anna Záborská (ex-KDH, now running with OĽANO) recently said that a choice between Smer and PS is "a choice between corruption and ideological colonization". It's really starting to look like KDH is willing to throw all of their (quite genuine) anti-corruption and pro-European principles overboard just so they get ministerial cars and Majerský can yell about gays, plague and gay plague as much as he wants. Majerský also seems to think that the previous KDH leader Alojz Hlina* and his willingness to cooperate with liberal forces hurt the party. Which is interesting, since apparently one in five KDH voters have PS as their second choice.

2. Matovič came up with a bombshell: he showed alleged text messages between SaS leader Sulík and Jaroslav Haščák, an influential Smer-adjacent oligarch and the owner of Penta Investments, involved in pretty much every major political scandal of the past decade. Matovič says that Sulík's phone has been hacked and someone offered him to buy a complete backup of the phone as it was on 15 October 2020 for one million euros (!), but in the end he got it for free because it was in possession of "a person close to Sulík who has been betrayed in something important". It's notable that neither Sulík nor Haščák are denying any of this.

3. Talking about OĽANO, we now know why they decided to run in a coalition: it allows them to spend three times as much on their campaign. It has been pointed out that OĽANO's campaign is the most expensive in Slovak history, even more than HZDS' batsh/t 1998 campaign that included Claudia Schiffer, Gérard Depardieu and, I sh/t you not, HZDS flag on Mount Everest.

4. There have been a lot of debates. Like, a lot. News channel TA3 alone apparently organized fifty (!) one-on-one debates between various candidates over the past three weeks. Last week we've had, if I counted correctly, eighteen TV, online and live debates between various combinations of party leaders. Monday evening had the biggest one: all leaders of major parties (except Pellegrini, who sent a substitute, and Fico, who didn't send anyone and left an empty podium) on TV Markíza, the most-watched channel. It was... look, I don't think anyone's mind has been changed by any of this. There are going to be some more debates on Tuesday and there was supposed to be a big Fico-Šimečka-Pellegrini debate on Wednesday, but Fico refused and the other two then said they aren't going either.

<sub>* Hlina is, of course, best remembered for, er...
- parking a tank in front of the home of communist apparatchik Vasil Biľak who asked the Soviets to invade in 1968
- building an actual brick wall in front of the entrance of a shady payday lender
- campaigning by spelling his name out of bales of hay
- physically attacking another MP in Parliament

He also changes parties like socks: he was first in the leadership of Party of Young Democrats, got elected to Parliament for OĽANO, left to form his own party called Citizens of Slovakia, joined KDH and served as the party leader, then left to form his own party again, now called Moderates, joined up with Smer splinter Good Choice, left after they decided to run with Hlas and is now standing for parliament for SaS.</sub>

[Storr]

snippity snip

On the one hand a party can randomly drop two points only to get back up the next week, even in countries with better polling*, on the other I can absolutely imagine that some people are starting to have doubts about whether they want that man back in power. It's nice to see PS ahead (their first polling lead ever!), but the more important thing is that this is the first poll with Republika clearly surpassing Hlas. The seat numbers would look like this:

30 PS
30 Smer
17 REP
16 Hlas
13 SR
12 KDH
12 OĽaNO–KÚ–ZĽ
11 SASKA
9 SNS

Not only does the all-but-official Smer+Hlas+SNS combination not get a majority, they're 21 (!) seats short. They'd need Sme rodina and a fifth partner: either Republika or, as a real longshot, KDH. Despite their statements to the contrary, SNS would be able to stomach the former, but it would be a problem for Hlas: I don't think someone who just proposed a constitutional amendment to guarantee equal rights of men and women will be comfortable governing with ex-Nazis. As for the latter, even though KDH is very socially conservative (like Smer, probably more so) and economically leftish (like Smer, probably more so, at least right now), they never got on well with Fico even though he's been trying to get KDH to join him for as long as he's been in politics.

* although I'd hazard a guess that Slovak polling is not as awful as it used to be, if nothing else because there are now 2-3 polls each week and the figures aren't jumping around as much as a few years ago

And now the first poll with a PS lead (Don't give me too much hope, Slovakia):

NMS, vote percentage with change since their last poll in parenthesis:

PS 19.7 (+1.6)
Smer 19.4 (-2.6)
Hlas 10.6 (-0.9)
OĽaNO–KÚ–ZĽ 9.5 (+3.4) Maybe the car megaphone incident actually worked for Matovič? lol
REP 8.5 (+0.2)
SASKA 5.7 (+1.5)
KDH 5.4 (+0.7)
SNS 5.4 (-1.9)
SR 5.2 (-0.6)
Alliance 3.1 (-0.1)

"The key to moving PS to the top spot is 4 factors:

Progressive Slovakia benefits significantly from undecided voters;

voters of Progressive Slovakia show great motivation to vote for this (up to 98% of PS voters are completely or rather certain of their choice);

the progressives manage to fulfill their electoral potential at 82%, which is the second highest value after the Alliance;

scores significantly among young people (50.1% in the 18-24 category, 32.1% in the 25-34 age category), university-educated voters (31.9%) and voters from cities with over 100,000 inhabitants (36.2% )."

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

That OLaNO surge is interesting.

[Estrella]

✂️ snip

God, I really don't want to get my hopes up but even if Fico ends up PM, Smer coming second would be something f/cking amazing.

As for coalitions, Smer/Hlas/SNS/SR comes short and needs KDH (which still gives them only a 78-72 majority), Republika (good luck convincing Hlas) or OĽANO (hahahaha). PS/Hlas/KDH/SR/SaS would also get only to 78-72. The Hlas-less option of PS/OĽANO/KDH/SR/SaS (i.e. the 2020-2022 coalition plus PS and KDH) would get a 77-73 majority, which in combination with the presence of Matovič would probably mean they fall apart after a week.

One more interesting thing from that poll: "The increased declared turnout of 71% is a big factor in the significant movements since the last election model in early September. The increase is mainly due to the increased motivation of the younger generation, which has increased by 8 points in 2 weeks. This part is only counted from the population that can be measured in opinion polls and therefore we expect a turnout around the 65% mark. The clear reason for these movements is the strong mobilisation of the centre-right spectrum of opinion, which is beginning to catch up in numbers and strength of conviction with the social-nationalist voters."

From another poll: "Nearly half of Smer's electorate are old age pensioners. More than half are are older than 60 and another fifth are aged 50 to 59."

Anyway, the above is not what's dominating the news right now. Let's cast our minds back to a few weeks ago:

At the end of August, all MPs and the offices of major national newspapers received an anonymous letter with a flash drive. The drive contained a video where a woman claims that Kollár twice forced her to have an abortion, abused her and drove her to a suicide attempt. The woman then came out publicly and published the full video on Youtube, titled The Truth about Boris K, that included testimonies from her father and bank statements that allegedly prove Kollár paid for the abortions. Her name is Ema Ferusová and her father is – as if this wasn't complicated enough – Ľuboš Ferus, a convicted mafia boss.

Boris Kollár then came with an absolutely batsh/t retaliation: he revealed he had been secretly recording his conversations with Ferusová and published the recordings online. He says they prove that Ferusová is lying and that the influential lawyer and oligarch Zoroslav Kollár (no relation) paid her €40,000 to create kompromat on him.

Yesterday, Zoroslav Kollár published a video titled Greetings to Boris Kollár no. 1.

Dressed in a shirt saying 'Putin Team' (?!) and with dramatic Vangelis playing in the background, Zoroslav presents frankly delirious eleven minutes of personal attacks, serious allegations and disturbing threats, all delivered in a calm, self-aware and deeply sarcastic tone.

"You have one great advantage over me. When you wake up in the morning and decide to publicize any information, you just call a press conference in Parliament. All journalists come and more or less uncritically publish what you said. I understand that the information about the quality of your morning stool, or about how you were relieving stress and nine months later we're going to see the results, or about how you beat up a weak woman or sent her to an abortion, or how you just handed over the 100,000th social house are very important."

"I decided to publicize grave facts this way. [...] You are the biggest enemy of yourself and your political ambitions. [...] I'm not organizing a dirty campaign. The only thing I did is that I helped two women whose lives you've destroyed. [...] I'm trying to live a humble and inconspicuous life, but I dare say that I have enough time, ideas and money to reach any goal I set for myself. Think about how a campaign against you and Sme rodina could look if it were financed and run by me."

"And now I want to provide the public with two important pieces of information I found out last week. [...] What you're saying is a lie, like ninety-nine percent of everyting that ever came out of your mouth. [...] I have the relevant information from the police. The background check on the car used by Barbora Richterová was carried out by the Slovak Information Service. [...] You, Boris, asked [SIS director] Vladimír Pčolinský to carry out an illegal background check."

"I, and all other inhabitants of the building on 12 Cintorínska Street in Bratislava, repeatedly saw you coming in a government limousine with emergency lights to 'relieve stress' with Miss Ferusová. When I didn't turn on the TV in my bedroom, I could even hear you. [...] You came up with a recording where Miss Ferusová allegedly said I offered her €40,000. I never believe women 100%, so I had an analysis made at the Institute of Court Engineering. The recording is exactly the same as your thesis and perhaps your entire life: a fraud and a lie.

"So, Boris. I didn't want and didn't need a war with you. But you keep pulling me into your schemes and I've run out of patience. I accept your challenge and we're going for it. I will show you the mirror of the truth. At least the Slovak nation will have some entertainment in this sad era. [...] I recommend you read The Art of War from Sun Tzu. The good news specifically for you is that it was also issued in Slovak because as far as I know, you can't read in any other language. So study quickly. I know it's not your favourite activity, that's why Ivan Kmotrík had to give you and Mrs. Krištúfková a university diploma as a Christmas gift."

Zoroslav follows with a story of visiting Beijing, standing at the Tiananmen Square and learning that three million people can fit there. He points out that Slovakia is "just a large square", everyone knows everyone and information spreads quickly. He continues with "Goebbels' saying that a lie repeated a hundred times becomes the truth is evidently your approach to work and to life. I will announce every piece of information I find out about you to the public. But unlike you, I will publish only the truth. [...] I will explain to Slovaks what people use what bank to secure a flow of money to Boris Kollár's wallet."

"And one more thing: if you declared war on me, you can use it and call me if you want to beat up someone. I will be a more dignified opponent for you. Only pathetic primitives beat women. So, I wish you a beautiful pre-election day and I'm looking forward to the beautiful personal experiences that are awaiting us."

PLEASE HELP WHAT IS HAPPENING

[Estrella]

The polling moratorium starts tomorrow. Here’s the average of the last polls of five pollsters who released them today and yesterday. They all agree on three trends: PS up and possibly ahead, OĽANO up and safely in, Sme rodina down and possibly out.

Smer 20.1% / 36
PS 17.8% / 32
Hlas 12.7% / 23
OĽANO+ 8.2% / 15
Republika 7.2% / 13
SaS 6.4% / 11
KDH 5.9% / 10
SNS 5.7% / 10
Sme rodina 4.7%
Szövetség 3.6%
Demokrati 3.2%
ĽSNS 1.8%
Modrí-Most 0.9%
Others 1.8%

Smer+Hlas+SNS is 69 (7 short), with KDH it’s 79, with Republika 82. PS+Hlas+SaS+KDH is exactly 76 (a majority of 1), with OĽANO it’s 91 (a constitutional majority of 2).

[RGM2609]

If the Hungarian Alliance is to somehow make it in, for whom are they a more likely partner?

[crals]

Why is OLANO still doing relatively well? They seem like an absolute disaster from what I read in this thread.