Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1549130737726767107

Her Twitter profile picture makes her look like a villain imo. Though it's not as unflattering as Donald Trump's, but that was on-message for him.

There could be a big incentive for an MP with a bit of heft to back either Truss or Mordaunt, because both are in a very close race to get to the membership vote while Sunak has a place on the ballot in the bag. They have so much more leverage than over Sunak that they could get a good cabinet position out of backing one candidate at the right time.

I feel like they would go for Mordaunt in that case. Truss doesn't come off as charismatic or experienced enough to lead the party and country.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Team Sunak have been briefing that they want to run against Truss. But I don’t think I believe that anymore. Polling has now shown Sunak ahead of Mordaunt, and a combination of her weird Turkey veto contortion, and the Mail’s fixation on stopping Penny, based on her previous support for gender self ID, means that Sunak might actually have some political leeway in a head-to-head.

If he keeps focusing on his economic experience, and can paint Mordaunt as non-serious or untested in comparison, he might still pull through. And there’s the added benefit that the ERG/Steve Baker types have no real candidate in a Mordaunt-Sunak race, so he won’t face a consolidated campaign against from those in that camp.

If it is that pair - I’d expect to see stories painting Mordaunt as unserious pop up everywhere. And a bunch of clips from the speech in this story: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/penny-mordaunt-speech-parliament-bet-b2122671.html?amp

Yeah it's pretty clear now that Sunak would much rather face Mordaunt. She's been damaged by the attacks in the right wing press over the weekend and lacks a factional base in the party. Much easier to run against. A Sunak-Truss contest would be highly factional, i.e. ERG/headbanger media/Continuity Boris vs the Chancellor who stabbed him, and could irreparably damage Sunak's premiership even if he won.

[brucejoel99]

Team Sunak have been briefing that they want to run against Truss. But I don’t think I believe that anymore. Polling has now shown Sunak ahead of Mordaunt, and a combination of her weird Turkey veto contortion, and the Mail’s fixation on stopping Penny, based on her previous support for gender self ID, means that Sunak might actually have some political leeway in a head-to-head.

If he keeps focusing on his economic experience, and can paint Mordaunt as non-serious or untested in comparison, he might still pull through. And there’s the added benefit that the ERG/Steve Baker types have no real candidate in a Mordaunt-Sunak race, so he won’t face a consolidated campaign against from those in that camp.

If it is that pair - I’d expect to see stories painting Mordaunt as unserious pop up everywhere. And a bunch of clips from the speech in this story: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/penny-mordaunt-speech-parliament-bet-b2122671.html?amp

Yeah it's pretty clear now that Sunak would much rather face Mordaunt. She's been damaged by the attacks in the right wing press over the weekend and lacks a factional base in the party. Much easier to run against. A Sunak-Truss contest would be highly factional, i.e. ERG/headbanger media/Continuity Boris vs the Chancellor who stabbed him, and could irreparably damage Sunak's premiership even if he won.

Equally as likely in the 24 hrs. between the Tues. results being declared & the final MPs ballot finishing on Wed., though, is the "ERG/Steve Baker/pro-headbanging/Continuity Boris" MP caucus that simply can't & won't tolerate a final 2 comprised of 2 ideologically impure candidates working their asses off to ensure that Truss surpasses Mordaunt, Rishi's choice be damned. Whether they can still succeed, we shall see...

[TheTide]

Team Sunak have been briefing that they want to run against Truss. But I don’t think I believe that anymore. Polling has now shown Sunak ahead of Mordaunt, and a combination of her weird Turkey veto contortion, and the Mail’s fixation on stopping Penny, based on her previous support for gender self ID, means that Sunak might actually have some political leeway in a head-to-head.

If he keeps focusing on his economic experience, and can paint Mordaunt as non-serious or untested in comparison, he might still pull through. And there’s the added benefit that the ERG/Steve Baker types have no real candidate in a Mordaunt-Sunak race, so he won’t face a consolidated campaign against from those in that camp.

If it is that pair - I’d expect to see stories painting Mordaunt as unserious pop up everywhere. And a bunch of clips from the speech in this story: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/penny-mordaunt-speech-parliament-bet-b2122671.html?amp

Yeah it's pretty clear now that Sunak would much rather face Mordaunt. She's been damaged by the attacks in the right wing press over the weekend and lacks a factional base in the party. Much easier to run against. A Sunak-Truss contest would be highly factional, i.e. ERG/headbanger media/Continuity Boris vs the Chancellor who stabbed him, and could irreparably damage Sunak's premiership even if he won.

Equally as likely in the 24 hrs. between the Tues. results being declared & the final MPs ballot finishing on Wed., though, is the "ERG/Steve Baker/pro-headbanging/Continuity Boris" MP caucus that simply can't & won't tolerate a final 2 comprised of 2 ideologically impure candidates working their asses off to ensure that Truss surpasses Mordaunt, Rishi's choice be damned. Whether they can still succeed, we shall see...

Steve Baker despises Boris and was perhaps his most public critic on the Tory benches up until the coup took place a couple of weeks ago.

[brucejoel99]

Team Sunak have been briefing that they want to run against Truss. But I don’t think I believe that anymore. Polling has now shown Sunak ahead of Mordaunt, and a combination of her weird Turkey veto contortion, and the Mail’s fixation on stopping Penny, based on her previous support for gender self ID, means that Sunak might actually have some political leeway in a head-to-head.

If he keeps focusing on his economic experience, and can paint Mordaunt as non-serious or untested in comparison, he might still pull through. And there’s the added benefit that the ERG/Steve Baker types have no real candidate in a Mordaunt-Sunak race, so he won’t face a consolidated campaign against from those in that camp.

If it is that pair - I’d expect to see stories painting Mordaunt as unserious pop up everywhere. And a bunch of clips from the speech in this story: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/penny-mordaunt-speech-parliament-bet-b2122671.html?amp

Yeah it's pretty clear now that Sunak would much rather face Mordaunt. She's been damaged by the attacks in the right wing press over the weekend and lacks a factional base in the party. Much easier to run against. A Sunak-Truss contest would be highly factional, i.e. ERG/headbanger media/Continuity Boris vs the Chancellor who stabbed him, and could irreparably damage Sunak's premiership even if he won.

Equally as likely in the 24 hrs. between the Tues. results being declared & the final MPs ballot finishing on Wed., though, is the "ERG/Steve Baker/pro-headbanging/Continuity Boris" MP caucus that simply can't & won't tolerate a final 2 comprised of 2 ideologically impure candidates working their asses off to ensure that Truss surpasses Mordaunt, Rishi's choice be damned. Whether they can still succeed, we shall see...

Steve Baker despises Boris and was perhaps his most public critic on the Tory benches up until the coup took place a couple of weeks ago.

Still supporting the Continuity Boris candidate, though.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1549274874849394689

[Blair]

Team Sunak have been briefing that they want to run against Truss. But I don’t think I believe that anymore. Polling has now shown Sunak ahead of Mordaunt, and a combination of her weird Turkey veto contortion, and the Mail’s fixation on stopping Penny, based on her previous support for gender self ID, means that Sunak might actually have some political leeway in a head-to-head.

If he keeps focusing on his economic experience, and can paint Mordaunt as non-serious or untested in comparison, he might still pull through. And there’s the added benefit that the ERG/Steve Baker types have no real candidate in a Mordaunt-Sunak race, so he won’t face a consolidated campaign against from those in that camp.

If it is that pair - I’d expect to see stories painting Mordaunt as unserious pop up everywhere. And a bunch of clips from the speech in this story: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/penny-mordaunt-speech-parliament-bet-b2122671.html?amp

Yeah it's pretty clear now that Sunak would much rather face Mordaunt. She's been damaged by the attacks in the right wing press over the weekend and lacks a factional base in the party. Much easier to run against. A Sunak-Truss contest would be highly factional, i.e. ERG/headbanger media/Continuity Boris vs the Chancellor who stabbed him, and could irreparably damage Sunak's premiership even if he won.

Equally as likely in the 24 hrs. between the Tues. results being declared & the final MPs ballot finishing on Wed., though, is the "ERG/Steve Baker/pro-headbanging/Continuity Boris" MP caucus that simply can't & won't tolerate a final 2 comprised of 2 ideologically impure candidates working their asses off to ensure that Truss surpasses Mordaunt, Rishi's choice be damned. Whether they can still succeed, we shall see...

Steve Baker despises Boris and was perhaps his most public critic on the Tory benches up until the coup took place a couple of weeks ago.

To quibble slightly there were others who were on a level above Baker- Wragg, Elwood, Sambrook, Gale, Noakes etc

[Blair]

Heat seems to be getting to people as there’s a lot of weird briefing- Badenoch camp claiming they’ll go above Truss, Mordaunt camp claiming she’ll get a lot of TT people.

I’ll wait for the results but my hunch is that Truss could still struggle.

I would also advise Rishi not to put your finger on the scale and lend votes to face someone you ‘prefer’ in the final two- you tempt fate alone doing that.

[Conservatopia]

Heat seems to be getting to people as there’s a lot of weird briefing- Badenoch camp claiming they’ll go above Truss, Mordaunt camp claiming she’ll get a lot of TT people.

I’ll wait for the results but my hunch is that Truss could still struggle.

I would also advise Rishi not to put your finger on the scale and lend votes to face someone you ‘prefer’ in the final two- you tempt fate alone doing that.

Yes far better to max out your number of MPs and look as though you are the most serious candidate.

[Torrain]

Whatever happens today - Mordaunt has lost at least one vote. Withdrawing the whip from Tobias Ellwood (one of her more vocal backers) means he won't have a vote in tonight's contest. Little bit of a reminder that, through his chief whip, Johnson still holds a significant amount of power in this contest.

The peak chaos outcome now is for Truss to beat Mordaunt in the final MPs ballot by one vote - and for the Mordaunt camp to then accuse Johnson of rigging the contest via the Whips Office.

[Coldstream]

Team Sunak have been briefing that they want to run against Truss. But I don’t think I believe that anymore. Polling has now shown Sunak ahead of Mordaunt, and a combination of her weird Turkey veto contortion, and the Mail’s fixation on stopping Penny, based on her previous support for gender self ID, means that Sunak might actually have some political leeway in a head-to-head.

If he keeps focusing on his economic experience, and can paint Mordaunt as non-serious or untested in comparison, he might still pull through. And there’s the added benefit that the ERG/Steve Baker types have no real candidate in a Mordaunt-Sunak race, so he won’t face a consolidated campaign against from those in that camp.

If it is that pair - I’d expect to see stories painting Mordaunt as unserious pop up everywhere. And a bunch of clips from the speech in this story: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/penny-mordaunt-speech-parliament-bet-b2122671.html?amp

Yeah it's pretty clear now that Sunak would much rather face Mordaunt. She's been damaged by the attacks in the right wing press over the weekend and lacks a factional base in the party. Much easier to run against. A Sunak-Truss contest would be highly factional, i.e. ERG/headbanger media/Continuity Boris vs the Chancellor who stabbed him, and could irreparably damage Sunak's premiership even if he won.

Equally as likely in the 24 hrs. between the Tues. results being declared & the final MPs ballot finishing on Wed., though, is the "ERG/Steve Baker/pro-headbanging/Continuity Boris" MP caucus that simply can't & won't tolerate a final 2 comprised of 2 ideologically impure candidates working their asses off to ensure that Truss surpasses Mordaunt, Rishi's choice be damned. Whether they can still succeed, we shall see...

Steve Baker despises Boris and was perhaps his most public critic on the Tory benches up until the coup took place a couple of weeks ago.

To quibble slightly there were others who were on a level above Baker- Wragg, Elwood, Sambrook, Gale, Noakes etc

Yeah that’s a pretty generous interpretation of Baker who stuck with Johnson far longer than the likes of Andrew Bridgen did.

[Coldstream]

Interesting side story, Tobias Elwood just lost the whip for not supporting the government in the confidence motion last night. He was out of the country on Defence Committee business.

It probably won’t happen, but given Elwood would back Mordaunt over Truss and given how close it’s likely to be between those two tomorrow one vote may clinch it.

[CumbrianLefty]

I would also advise Rishi not to put your finger on the scale and lend votes to face someone you ‘prefer’ in the final two- you tempt fate alone doing that.

Yes, its not as if he has huge amounts of surplus votes to "play with" even now anyway.

[Torrain]

Adding to the discussion about Sunak's team no longer favouring Truss as a run-off opponent:

Nicholas Watt (BBC Newsnight's political editor) has just reported that the Truss campaign reached out to Sunak's team to ask them to lend votes, to help knock out Badenoch and Mordaunt - an overture that seems to have been rebuffed. Truss loyalists were apparently trying to make the case for a race between "cabinet heavyweights", to prevent an 'untested' PM.

The dynamic is bizarre. Sunak lending votes to Truss on his own merits would be odd enough. For Truss to ask for lent votes, makes her team seem quite vulnerable.

[TheTide]

YouGov has done another poll of various match ups

Sunak v Mordaunt
Sunak: 37
Mordaunt: 51

Sunak v Truss
Sunak: 35
Truss: 54

Sunak v Badenoch
Sunak: 34
Badenoch: 56

Mordaunt v Truss
Mordaunt: 42
Truss: 48

Truss v Badenoch
Truss: 43
Badenoch: 46

[Torrain]

Further to my previous post - Telegraph's Ben Riley-Smith suggesting that Tugendhat supporters are likely to swing to Mordaunt, to try and box the Right out from the final two.

One of those 31 MPs told The Telegraph about the group: “Lots of them are in the ‘anyone but Liz’ camp.

"Liz has weirdly allowed herself to become the continuity Boris plus ERG candidate, which is a strange place for Liz to be. For today, I think a lot of people will vote for Penny.”

A figure involved in Mr Tugendhat’s campaign said of his Tory MP supporters: “Most of them will go to Penny or Rishi.

The majority - but not all - are not huge fans of Liz. So there may be an element of Penny picking up a few.”

One ally close to Ms Truss also conceded that many of Mr Tugendhat’s votes could go to Ms Mordaunt: “It is fair to assume a chunk will go to Penny. But we hope to get a few.”

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1549142666297987072

I mean, its Peston.

You might as well give weight to chicken entrails

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1549142666297987072

I mean, its Peston.

You might as well give weight to chicken entrails

Chris Mason of the BBC is the best TV political editor there has been for some time. Mostly because he doesn't crave the limelight.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, he is a definite improvement on his predecessor. Though it should be said Peston is annoying in a different way to LK - not least his constant open mouthed "amazement" at the most banal things.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Kuenssberg's problem was that she just repeated what she was told, even if it was obviously untrue or partial. Peston's problem is that he thinks for himself and his brain is made of cheese.

[Torrain]

The Committee for Dad Jokes and Weird Photo Ops has convened - results in five minutes.
https://twitter.com/William_Wragg/status/1549381503553081346

[Coldstream]

Blimey Truss somehow picked up 15 votes. Didn’t see that coming. It’s possible some are Badenoch switchers but still, that’s much better than anyone expected.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/bethrigby/status/1549394061337006085

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Looks like Truss - Sunak then.

[Cassius]

Whilst we don’t quite know what’s going to happen in the final round, I was pretty confident that Mordaunt would come a cropper after that first debate and it seems to be happening.