Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[afleitch]

Whilst we don’t quite know what’s going to happen in the final round, I was pretty confident that Mordaunt would come a cropper after that first debate and it seems to be happening.

She sunk her own campaign by doing a 180. Had she just stuck to her previous, 'liberal' Cameronian credentials and fight for them, she might be doing much better.

[TheTide]

Sunak could actually go out if his team are stupid enough to throw around votes in the next round. He probably isn't getting many from Badenoch. Could be like Portillo in 2001 all over again.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Whilst we don’t quite know what’s going to happen in the final round, I was pretty confident that Mordaunt would come a cropper after that first debate and it seems to be happening.

This is a spectacularly British sentence, I must say

[DINGO Joe]

Interesting side story, Tobias Elwood just lost the whip for not supporting the government in the confidence motion last night. He was out of the country on Defence Committee business.

It probably won’t happen, but given Elwood would back Mordaunt over Truss and given how close it’s likely to be between those two tomorrow one vote may clinch it.

Seems like he was punished for being the last Con to actually still be working on this government thing. 

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Looks like Truss - Sunak then.

Tbh what gives me pause here is if Sunak was lending votes to Badenoch. If there’s say 10 or so Sunak votes in Badenoch’s total that he will transfer over to Mordaunt, that could be just enough to stop Truss.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I've decided to endorse Truss. I would feel very proud and #represented if the UK were led by one of my people (weird women with no spatial orientation skills).

[TheTide]

Latest in 'MPs don't always behave predictably in leadership elections' news - Desmond Swayne backs Sunak.

[Blair]

He was Cameron’s PPS once- which is quite funny.

Rumours about vote lending are the only thing making me think Truss might struggle- if you take numbers alone she should easily get through.

Joy for Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whilst we don’t quite know what’s going to happen in the final round, I was pretty confident that Mordaunt would come a cropper after that first debate and it seems to be happening.

She sunk her own campaign by doing a 180. Had she just stuck to her previous, 'liberal' Cameronian credentials and fight for them, she might be doing much better.

May have made an error by leaning overmuch into her A.N. Other status rather than fight her corner more.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Starting to think it could be Truss. Mourdant seemed to be ascending, but I think she might be losing momentum. Sunak may prove to have been a paper tiger. We’ll see come tomorrow who gets eliminated between Truss and Mourdant. Leaning towards Mourdant getting cut.

[MABA 2020]

Well Sunak vs. Truss (which is now the very likely outcome) is great news for Labour

[Pericles]

I can't see how Truss is supposed to be more appealing than Mordaunt, even if Mordaunt risks coming across as a lightweight. It's looking pretty likely that the Tories will end up regretting this leadership change and it will haunt them maybe even more than the Thatcher one did, though Boris was in fact toxic due to Partygate and his lack of grip and direction.

[Oryxslayer]

I can't see how Truss is supposed to be more appealing than Mordaunt, even if Mordaunt risks coming across as a lightweight. It's looking pretty likely that the Tories will end up regretting this leadership change and it will haunt them maybe even more than the Thatcher one did, though Boris was in fact toxic due to Partygate and his lack of grip and direction.

Boris had to go. The lack of dynamic successors is just the natural result of being in office for too long and being tied to so much government policy. 

[Blair]

Funnily enough this is the race it would have been last December if Boris quit (albeit it with less stress for Sunak)

It’s damning they’ve gone for Truss but parties do weird things, especially after long spells in Government and when the beloved leader gets deposed. There were people in Labour who though Charles Clarke could be leader once!

[TheTide]

Truss is more Keith Joseph than Margaret Thatcher, but with less intelligence.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

It’s amusing how the Tories are going to end up choosing between shooting themselves on the foot with Sunak or shooting themselves in the head with Truss.

Mordaunt seemed like the most electable leader, but even she has turned out to be a lightweight incapable of uttering a single original idea. I think if she had followed Sunak‘s example on tax policy and actively defended her unpopular-with-the-Tory base stance on trans rights instead of backtracking, she would’ve at least come off as more genuine.

[Conservatopia]

My calculation:

Sunak: 132
Truss: 116
Mordaunt: 108

This assumes no shenanigans from Rishi's camp which is an unrealistic assumption after what happened yesterday.

Yesterday a load of Sunak supporters are thought to have switched (temporarily?) to Truss.

[Torrain]

There a number of big names who aren't committed to one of the final candidates:

• Priti Patel
• Ben Wallace
• Sajid Javid
• Nadhim Zahawi
• Tom Tugendhat
• Kemi Badenoch
• Michael Gove

I expect we'll see most wait until the run-off, if they endorse at all, but in a contest like this, I don't think you can rule out a last minute intervention by a big beast of the party.

[Pericles]

There a number of big names who aren't committed to one of the final candidates:

• Priti Patel
• Ben Wallace
• Sajid Javid
• Nadhim Zahawi
• Tom Tugendhat
• Kemi Badenoch
• Michael Gove

I expect we'll see most wait until the run-off, if they endorse at all, but in a contest like this, I don't think you can rule out a last minute intervention by a big beast of the party.

As I was saying, these people could try and gamble on getting either Truss or Mordaunt to the membership. The candidates need their support much more now so surely they can get a great offer for it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what time is the vote today?

[Torrain]

So what time is the vote today?

Early afternoon. Voting between 1-3pm, with results announced at 4pm.

[Coldstream]

There a number of big names who aren't committed to one of the final candidates:

• Priti Patel
• Ben Wallace
• Sajid Javid
• Nadhim Zahawi
• Tom Tugendhat
• Kemi Badenoch
• Michael Gove

I expect we'll see most wait until the run-off, if they endorse at all, but in a contest like this, I don't think you can rule out a last minute intervention by a big beast of the party.

As I was saying, these people could try and gamble on getting either Truss or Mordaunt to the membership. The candidates need their support much more now so surely they can get a great offer for it.

Probably not worth the risk with only a day to go, if you back the candidate who ends up third you look out of touch & annoy the top two. Though I wouldn’t be shocked if Wallace came out for Truss due to his loyalty to Johnson.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tobias_Ellwood/status/1549732833115136000

Edit: tweet seems to have been deleted - but Tobias Ellwood stated that he's going to be given the whip back just long enough to vote in the leadership election this afternoon.

Confirmation from the Times on this decision here:
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1549741899640184832

[Coldstream]

Worth noting that in 2019 there was a deliberate effort by MP’s to keep Gove off the ballot to prevent a brutal blue-on-blue contest between him and Johnson. I wouldn’t be shocked if there are some who want to do the same to block Truss today.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, that is the widespread rumour.

But against that, Sunak genuinely seems to think he can beat her.

I wonder if Mordaunt's gaffe on Twitter this morning might have harmed her chances at all.