Afghan government collapse.

[WMS]

Interesting.

https://twitter.com/AsYouNotWish/status/1426845547583795202

Its because of

https://www.news18.com/news/world/russia-says-taliban-promised-safety-of-embassy-in-afghanistans-kabul-4088771.html

"Russia Says Taliban Promised Safety of Embassy in Afghanistan's Kabul"

How many countries will recognize a Taliban-led Afghanistan?

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Russian puppet states, Myanmar, Syria initially and fairly quickly. Then most of the other oppressive governments out there, and some of the less scrupulous semi-democracies and democracies.

It would be nice to be wrong, but I doubt it.

Yup.

While I think I agree with the rest, I'm not sure about Syria. The bulk of remaining rebel groups in Idlib are very Taliban friendly and will probably recognize the new government. Assad meanwhile does not want to legitimize Sunni Islamist insurgencies. The anti-American/anti-imperialist screw you probably won't be enough to get over that hurdle.

That’s an interesting question for the Syrian regime to answer. While I lean toward them doing what Russia wants them to I can see your point.

Oh yeah, from that article jaichind linked: “Tass quoted Suhail Shaheen, a spokesman for the Taliban's political office, as saying that the organisation has good relations with Russia”

I seem to recall a certain group of posters who mocked anyone claiming that Russia was supporting the Taliban

[jaichind]

If the USA is smart they should move quickly to form a relationship with the new Taliban regime as there is no alternative to the Taliban in the medium term.   Their goal should be try to lock out as much PRC-Russia influence over the Taliban as possible.

[Cassius]

If the USA is smart they should move quickly to form a relationship with the new Taliban regime as there is no alternative to the Taliban in the medium term.   Their goal should be try to lock out as much PRC-Russia influence over the Taliban as possible.

Yes. I suspect that is why the Taliban have (thus far) been relatively restrained with regards the advance on Kabul and the evacuation of US and other foreign personnel, so as to avoid anything that echoes the incidents that took place in Iran in 1979 that poisoned relations with the US in the short and long term. Obviously I expect relations to be extremely frosty in the short to medium term, but perhaps an accommodation can be worked out for the long term that avoids sanctions and the recrudescence of international terrorist activity based within Afghanistan.

[jaichind]

Of all the Great Powers the biggest loser of his most recent development has to be India.  India has been the most hardline in having no contact with the Taliban and invested quit a lot into the now collapsing Afgan government.   Now they have to walk that back which would be quite an embarrassment or watch as their Pakistan rival with the PRC right behind them, gain much greater influence over Afghanistan which India does consider as part of its near abroad and sphere of influence.   The Indian media has been pretty compreneshive and up-to-date on coverage of events over this last month precisely because they know what is at stake.  I would be interesting to see how India actions India takes over the coming weeks to deal with this new reality.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

21 radical islamists.

To be expected from Atlas.

[Woody]

If the USA is smart they should move quickly to form a relationship with the new Taliban regime as there is no alternative to the Taliban in the medium term.   Their goal should be try to lock out as much PRC-Russia influence over the Taliban as possible.

The Second Great Game?

[Crumpets]

For all the comparisons with the fall of Saigon, the issue of "what happened next" always seems to be ignored. I can definitely envision some scenario where 30 years down the road the US has a "productive dialogue" or something with the Taliban to shore up Central Asia against Chinese expansion, and nobody really thinks its weird because the world has just moved on from the 2000s-2010s.

[Crumpets]

We have our first official anti-Taliban insurgency already. That was quick!

https://twitter.com/Hamidhaideri/status/1426897336312160262

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The Second Great Game?

It would have to be at least the third or fourth by this point.

[Alcibiades]

It seems that Kabul will fall mostly bloodlessly. While it is hard to say that this is a relief, things could have been worse.

A realistic best short-to-medium term scenario is that Afghanistan ends up as a “moderate” Islamic theocracy (i.e. still a full range of horrible policies towards women and those who don’t conform, but not quit the cartoonish levels of brutality of the original Taliban, and with some modest attempts at actually governing), which is mostly indifferent to the United States and the West.

This is taking rather an optimistic view, and while possible, the main pitfalls in Afghanistan that could reasonably happen are:
1) After an initial attempt to avoid bad PR, the Taliban gradually ramps up the harshness of its rule as Western media attention recedes.
2) The Taliban is in fact woefully incompetent and totally unable to govern even if it tries to.
3) Continued civil war/insurgency/warlordism - although quite frankly, if there are Afghans willing to resist the Taliban, more power to them.
4) The nightmare scenario from a selfish US point of view, that the Taliban once again effectively harbours al-Qaeda and/or other terror groups which wish the US harm.

This isn’t quite like Iraq when the US mostly withdrew from there in the early 2010s, in that there is actually a clear and dominant group in power in Afghanistan now, but it is not inconceivable that the US may have to eventually send in troops to support various non-Pashtun groups resisting the Taliban, much like it did with the Kurds in Iraq and Syria, if indeed a threat to the United States re-emerges in Afghanistan that is comparable to ISIS.

[Logical]

President Ghani has fled. Some reports say to Tajikistan. Former President Hamid Karzai is staying on the other hand.

[Alcibiades]

Having held off until now, the Taliban are now finally entering Kabul, claiming that they are doing so to restore law and order and stop looting as the police have mostly fled.

[Sir Mohamed]

This was always going to happen, but I'm kind of shocked it did occur so fast. Tells you that Biden's decision to leave was the correct call. We should now make sure to get as much people as possible out who might be in danger. I'm not really buying that Taliban just seeks a peaceful transition of power.


https://twitter.com/axios/status/1426905059384872961

[compucomp]

If the USA is smart they should move quickly to form a relationship with the new Taliban regime as there is no alternative to the Taliban in the medium term.   Their goal should be try to lock out as much PRC-Russia influence over the Taliban as possible.

To think that there is someone unironically advocating this from the American perspective. Such a move would establish, once and for all and in the eyes of the world, that American foreign policy is about submission to American interests, period. All of the sanctimonious propaganda about "freedom", "democracy", and "human rights" is permanently revealed to be a complete sham.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If the USA is smart they should move quickly to form a relationship with the new Taliban regime as there is no alternative to the Taliban in the medium term.   Their goal should be try to lock out as much PRC-Russia influence over the Taliban as possible.

To think that there is someone unironically advocating this from the American perspective. Such a move would establish, once and for all and in the eyes of the world, that American foreign policy is about submission to American interests, period. All of the sanctimonious propaganda about "freedom", "democracy", and "human rights" is permanently revealed to be a complete sham.

It's a bad idea, but it's hardly crossing a Rubicon. They already have warm relations with the Saudis, who are similarly repressive and have done far more for international terrorism.

[jaichind]

If the USA is smart they should move quickly to form a relationship with the new Taliban regime as there is no alternative to the Taliban in the medium term.   Their goal should be try to lock out as much PRC-Russia influence over the Taliban as possible.

To think that there is someone unironically advocating this from the American perspective. Such a move would establish, once and for all and in the eyes of the world, that American foreign policy is about submission to American interests, period. All of the sanctimonious propaganda about "freedom", "democracy", and "human rights" is permanently revealed to be a complete sham.

But it was a sham the whole time and were used as talking points for domestic support for necessary foreign policies to uphold USA national interests.   Anything else would be a amateurish policy for a Great Power.  I do not see why the USA should not ideally try to get Taliban regime to be a second Saudi Arabia. 

Nations should be left to decide their own political and social systems.  If they are wrong they will figure it out on their own.  Any attempt by an outside power to impose such systems will merely delegitimatize those very ideas as a foreign imposed import.

[Silent Hunter]

By the time they figure it out, you tend to end up with a lot of dead people.

[Sir Mohamed]

If the USA is smart they should move quickly to form a relationship with the new Taliban regime as there is no alternative to the Taliban in the medium term.   Their goal should be try to lock out as much PRC-Russia influence over the Taliban as possible.

To think that there is someone unironically advocating this from the American perspective. Such a move would establish, once and for all and in the eyes of the world, that American foreign policy is about submission to American interests, period. All of the sanctimonious propaganda about "freedom", "democracy", and "human rights" is permanently revealed to be a complete sham.

But it was a sham the whole time and were used as talking points for domestic support for necessary foreign policies to uphold USA national interests.   Anything else would be a amateurish policy for a Great Power.  I do not see why the USA should not ideally try to get Taliban regime to be a second Saudi Arabia. 

Nations should be left to decide their own political and social systems.  If they are wrong they will figure it out on their own.  Any attempt by an outside power to impose such systems will merely delegitimatize those very ideas as a foreign imposed import.

I think at some point the Taliban need to find - if not allies - at least some kind of stable relationships once aid from the USA and our allies are cut off. You can't run a country into complete economic misery and maintain support among enough people.

[Crumpets]

Not strictly on-topic, but people might find this interesting. A map of where Afghan refugees have been settled in the US between 2002-2019.

https://data.greatfallstribune.com/refugee/all/afghanistan/all/

[jaichind]

I think at some point the Taliban need to find - if not allies - at least some kind of stable relationships once aid from the USA and our allies are cut off. You can't run a country into complete economic misery and maintain support among enough people.

Agreed. And that is clearly where PRC-Russia will come in and provide funding and support for the Taliban regime to stabilize things on the economic front  in return for access to mineral wealth as well as its transportation network.  The question is will the USA just sit back to allow this to take place or will it use its still considerable power to influence and economic access to the new Taliban ruled Afghanistan.

[Silent Hunter]

If the USA is smart they should move quickly to form a relationship with the new Taliban regime as there is no alternative to the Taliban in the medium term.   Their goal should be try to lock out as much PRC-Russia influence over the Taliban as possible.

To think that there is someone unironically advocating this from the American perspective. Such a move would establish, once and for all and in the eyes of the world, that American foreign policy is about submission to American interests, period. All of the sanctimonious propaganda about "freedom", "democracy", and "human rights" is permanently revealed to be a complete sham.

But it was a sham the whole time and were used as talking points for domestic support for necessary foreign policies to uphold USA national interests.   Anything else would be a amateurish policy for a Great Power.  I do not see why the USA should not ideally try to get Taliban regime to be a second Saudi Arabia. 

Nations should be left to decide their own political and social systems.  If they are wrong they will figure it out on their own.  Any attempt by an outside power to impose such systems will merely delegitimatize those very ideas as a foreign imposed import.

I think at some point the Taliban need to find - if not allies - at least some kind of stable relationships once aid from the USA and our allies are cut off. You can't run a country into complete economic misery and maintain support among enough people.

The North Koreans are trying.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think at some point the Taliban need to find - if not allies - at least some kind of stable relationships once aid from the USA and our allies are cut off. You can't run a country into complete economic misery and maintain support among enough people.

Agreed. And that is clearly where PRC-Russia will come in and provide funding and support for the Taliban regime to stabilize things on the economic front  in return for access to mineral wealth as well as its transportation network.  The question is will the USA just sit back to allow this to take place or will it use its still considerable power to influence and economic access to the new Taliban ruled Afghanistan.

Question of course is what is there to gain for us; and secondary, I doubt the PRC or Russia will view this as kind of a real partnership. They're more likely to force their own terms on Afghanistan and whether Taliban are ok accepting this is another question in itsself. Time will tell.

[jaichind]

By the time they figure it out, you tend to end up with a lot of dead people.

Even if there is some sort of universalist political and social system that works well for all sorts cultural, economic and historical environments which I very much dispute, there is wisdom a country learns as it evolves toward said system on its on and "discover that they were wrong."  It seems illogical to deny said country such wisdom and doing so would be the equivalent of giving second grader trying to learn the multiplication tables a calculator.

[_.]

If the USA is smart they should move quickly to form a relationship with the new Taliban regime as there is no alternative to the Taliban in the medium term.   Their goal should be try to lock out as much PRC-Russia influence over the Taliban as possible.

To think that there is someone unironically advocating this from the American perspective. Such a move would establish, once and for all and in the eyes of the world, that American foreign policy is about submission to American interests, period. All of the sanctimonious propaganda about "freedom", "democracy", and "human rights" is permanently revealed to be a complete sham.

This was revealed to the rest of the world long ago

[Continential]

I wonder what will happen to the historical artifacts and I hope those get taken out and not destroyed by the Taliban.