Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's not how ordinary voters think. That's how people who write newspaper columns think. There is a fundamental difference.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Totes unbiased and 100% fair and accurate guide to the parties of Ontario: http://ippikin.wordpress.com/2014/05/02/a-notable-lack-of-common-sense/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Careful with the subsamples, comrades. That way madness lies.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And on the whole, this thread demonstrates why I, personally, would rather steer clear of raw projection-type methodology, at least when it comes to Ontario--it works better in the UK and US, where political party demos and patterns have much more of a set pattern.  I like when there's wiggle-room for chance and miracles...

Yeah. Ontario has had multiple surprise landslides in living memory...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, Timmins-James Bay could hardly be called 'close' in 2011. Solid margin, particularly given the run-dead business.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes. This is why samples are technically speaking trash and should not be taken as anything other than vaguely indicative. And frankly sometimes not even that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you want to declare an interest?

()

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The record of constituency polling is not good, I understand.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just for reference...

Seats

2011: Lib 53, PC 37, NDP 17
2007: Lib 71, PC 26, NDP 10
2003: Lib 72, PC 24, NDP 7
1999: PC 59, Lib 35, NDP 9
1995: PC 82, Lib 30, NDP 17, Ind 1
1990: NDP 74, Lib 36, PC 20
1987: Lib 95, NDP 19, PC 16
1985: PC 52, Lib 48, NDP 25
1981: PC 70, Lib 34, NDP 21
1977: PC 58, Lib 34, NDP 33
1975: PC 51, NDP 38, Lib 36
1971: PC 78, Lib 20, NDP 19
1967: PC 69, Lib 28, NDP 20
1963: PC 77, Lib 24, NDP 7


Votes

2011: Lib 37.6, PC 35.4, NDP 22.7, Green 2.9
2007: Lib 42.2, PC 31.6, NDP 16.8, Green 8.0
2003: Lib 46.4, PC 34.6, NDP 14.7, Green 2.8
1999: PC 45.1, Lib 39.9, NDP 12.6
1995: PC 44.8, Lib 31.1, NDP 20.6, FC 1.5
1990: NDP 37.6, Lib 32.4, PC 23.5, FC 2.7, CoR 1.9
1987: Lib 47.3, NDP 25.7, PC 24.7, FC 1.3
1985: Lib 37.9, PC 37.0, NDP 23.8
1981: PC 44.4, Lib 33.7, NDP 21.1
1977: PC 39.7, Lib 31.4, NDP 28.0
1975: PC 36.1, Lib 34.3, NDP 28.9
1971: PC 44.5, Lib 27.8, NDP 27.1
1967: PC 42.3, Lib 31.6, NDP 25.9
1963: PC 48.9, Lib 35.3, NDP 15.5

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this the point where I mention that constituency polls are not to be trusted?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

T. Dan Smith pointed out that he was jailed for less.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also usual warnings about the merits of constituency polling, etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Super early, but currently: Lib 50, PC 33, NDP 17

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Many, many ridings still to play for.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CBC have called Oshawa for the NDP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hilariously awful PC showing; third place could beckon next time unless they change their ways (being semi-serious). Pretty good for the NDP, but they really need to remember that it is possible to appeal to both Windsor and inner Toronto: the results there are a disaster.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, much of inner Toronto is still way too early to safely call. Still, it is interesting that the NDP have polled better in York West than Trinity-Spadina; the nature of the provincial dipper vote in the city has shifted considerably of late.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, it's their best result since 1990 - in terms of both seats and votes - and one that is (obviously) quite credible by historical standards. Hard to call that awful, given the various post-Rae elections.

A glorious triumph it obviously isn't, but who here is saying that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder what role demographic changes and continued gentrification in Toronto played a part in the results there; would the NDP have maybe held more seats in the city had things on the ground been as they were even ten years ago? Don't get me wrong here; the big issue was surely that the - now tres bobo - urban progressive left - which is more than capable of voting Dipper en masse - was alienated by the NDP campaign, but the context is interesting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Weird. Perhaps Hamilton Centre isn't as populist as one would think, it probably has a lot of progressive elites much like downtown Toronto or Downtown Ottawa.

Hamilton Centre is more like the old Hamilton West than old Hamilton East and so has more of those people in it, yes. But note also that the NDP polled ridiculously well in that area generally last time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"Urban progressives" are not a totally unified category. In some areas of the city, there has been a significant influx of high-income professionals. Other areas are more fashionable with a sort of high-education-but-modest-income demographic that seeks out more affordable city neighbourhoods while being still very averse to the suburbs. The fact that the NDP can now get a weaker result in Trinity-Spadina than in the two ridings to its west is connected to movement of the latter group.

Yeah, that's the kind of thing I was wondering about, though didn't articulate quite as well as would have been ideal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wouldn't you normally expect spoilt ballots to be more frequent in working class and minority areas?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wouldn't you normally expect spoilt ballots to be more frequent in working class and minority areas?

Declined ballots are different from spoiled ballots. A declined ballot is where you deliberately go to the polling station, take your ballot from the official, and then immediately hand it back unmarked rather than going into the booth.

That's... odd.