NYT/Siena: KS-03 Davids +14, NV-01 Tied, NM-02 Vasquez +1, PA-08 Cartwright +6

[wbrocks67]

I'm more shocked than anything that Yvette Herrell is getting so much cross Dem/Biden support despite the fact that she literally voted to deny the 2020 election results lol.

Her favorables are in the tank compared to Vasquez, too, despite him only leading by 1 pt.

I was very confused at the write-up on NYT's website about these polls when I saw them. These are not really indicative of a red wave, or even the R+4 result from their national poll.

[wbrocks67]

It almost feels like NYT wrote the article mostly before the poll results even came in, tbh.

Either way, what's interesting this cycle is that House polls have generally been very good for Democrats, and seem to be on the "2020 redux-ish" side. But who knows if house polls will be incredibly wrong again.

[wbrocks67]

FWIW, their polls of these districts in 2018 were as follows:

NM-02: R+1 (actual result - D+2)
PA-08: D+12 (actual result - D+9)
KS-03: D+9 (actual result - D+10)
Nevada (whole state, didn't poll any house district): R+2 (actual result - D+5)

[wbrocks67]

also, it appears that they asked gov/sen questions too? not sure if they're getting released though

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1585794186892038144

[wbrocks67]

Trust your work Nate Cohn! The media doom and gloom narrative was ridiculous and probably hurt most in NY.

NYT/Siena nailed this race both in 2018 and 2022. Pretty crazy

[wbrocks67]

One of those (and there will be many) that will get bumped on Nov. 9.

Hi. Just wondering if you're getting tired of being wrong constantly.

I think we might finally never see him again tbh.

Just like IceSpear before him, he was SO overconfident and SO wrong in SUCH a smug, unbearable way this time that he really ruined any chance of ever showing his face around here again without being mocked by a mob.

This is it. We're all wrong sometimes on this forum, but a lot of these blue avatars were just so *rude* and *smug* about everything this cycle and had no reason to be.

[wbrocks67]

The Cartwright one was even more on point I think bc I believe Cohn said if you adjusted it to better match the 2020 vote recall, it was like Cartwright +3, which was nearly exactly the result (Cartwright +2.4)