NYT/Siena: KS-03 Davids +14, NV-01 Tied, NM-02 Vasquez +1, PA-08 Cartwright +6

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1585781852169715717?s=20&t=y8kpHc6...

[GeorgiaModerate]

If anyone is wondering, Cook rates KS-03 as Lean D and the other three as tossups.

[KaiserDave]

Sure Jan

[MT Treasurer]

One of those (and there will be many) that will get bumped on Nov. 9.

[Ferguson97]

D+14 for Davids? Lol maybe the Dobbs shift is contained entirely within the state of Kansas.

[Pollster]

You can see in these polls very clearly the difficulty of adjusting for non-response bias. These polls are weighted by good key non-response metrics like modeled party, 2020 vote method, turnout history, and education but all four still overrepresent Biden 2020 voters and model electorates that voted for Biden by a larger margin than they did in 2020.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That a more UMC district like KS-03 would be less inclined to vote on basis of economic issues is...not surprising.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

NV-01/NM-02 to the right of PA-08.

lol.

I can see why NYT/Siena have basically abandoned their traditional house polling project.

[Lief 🗽]

Beautiful polls. Thank you Nate Cohn!

[Ferguson97]

NV-01/NM-02 to the right of PA-08.

lol.

I can see why NYT/Siena have basically abandoned their traditional house polling project.

Why is it so ridiculous? I have Dems winning PA-08 and losing NV-01/NM-02, it's entirely reasonable.

[Devils30]

These polls are good for Dems, no doubt about it.

With KS-3, you wonder if Dems are really out of the game in NE-2, NJ-7. I hope NYT/Siena does these if they do another round next week.

NM-2 was thought to be lost- clearly is not and Cartwright is holding up strong.

NV-1 is concerning but there is no way Titus loses if CCM if even within a couple points. NV Ds did a very effective gerrymander for a R+2 statewide GOP win there. Probably just more Vegas polling woes.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

NV-01/NM-02 to the right of PA-08.

lol.

I can see why NYT/Siena have basically abandoned their traditional house polling project.

Why is it so ridiculous? I have Dems winning PA-08 and losing NV-01/NM-02, it's entirely reasonable.

I mean ultimately what you find reasonable is subjective..

If republicans aren't flipping PA-08, given the trends in the district.. I wouldn't think they're having a particularly good night.

[Lief 🗽]

The NYT is right-wing propaganda. Imagine all the crying and screaming that must have gone on in that news room when these results came back!
https://twitter.com/dwbeard/status/1585785327301672961?s=21&t=APyubNdA8JInI6...

[Eraserhead]

The NYT is right-wing propaganda. Imagine the all the crying and screaming that must have gone on in that news room when these results came back!
https://twitter.com/dwbeard/status/1585785327301672961?s=21&t=APyubNdA8JInI6...

Yeah, I read that first paragraph and then the bull sh**t ad asking for money popped up and I decided I was good.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The NYT is right-wing propaganda. Imagine the all the crying and screaming that must have gone on in that news room when these results came back!
https://twitter.com/dwbeard/status/1585785327301672961?s=21&t=APyubNdA8JInI6...

NYT is the new Politico

[Dani Rose]

This strikes me as a mixed bag, but not unreasonable. At this point, I'm pretty certain Davids is in good shape, but she's not winning by 14 unless the Dobbs ball is still bouncing at July heights. I'm not terribly surprised by Cartwright's result, since he's kind of the reverse Fitzpatrick, and I don't know why people think the NM-02 number is so outlandish when the early vote so far has been exceptionally good for us. NV-01 is definitely not to the right of NM-02, though.

[Devout Centrist]

The NYT is right-wing propaganda. Imagine the all the crying and screaming that must have gone on in that news room when these results came back!
https://twitter.com/dwbeard/status/1585785327301672961?s=21&t=APyubNdA8JInI6...

The New York Times *needs* a Republican in the White House, otherwise no one buys their rag and they go bankrupt.

[Ferguson97]

NV-01/NM-02 to the right of PA-08.

lol.

I can see why NYT/Siena have basically abandoned their traditional house polling project.

Why is it so ridiculous? I have Dems winning PA-08 and losing NV-01/NM-02, it's entirely reasonable.

I mean ultimately what you find reasonable is subjective..

If republicans aren't flipping PA-08, given the trends in the district.. I wouldn't think they're having a particularly good night.

I think Cartwright is a pretty strong candidate, it’s got more to do with that than anything else

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NV-1 isn’t as surprising when you remember that Titus is a weak (and fairly lazy) incumbent who hasn’t run in a competitive GE race in 12 years.  She was always the most vulnerable of the three House NV Dems.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This strikes me as a mixed bag, but not unreasonable. At this point, I'm pretty certain Davids is in good shape, but she's not winning by 14 unless the Dobbs ball is still bouncing at July heights. I'm not terribly surprised by Cartwright's result, since he's kind of the reverse Fitzpatrick, and I don't know why people think the NM-02 number is so outlandish when the early vote so far has been exceptionally good for us. NV-01 is definitely not to the right of NM-02, though.

Yeah.
NV-01 is the odd one of the bunch.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1585790988496547841

[Mr.Phips]

NV-1 isn’t as surprising when you remember that Titus is a weak (and fairly lazy) incumbent who hasn’t run in a competitive GE race in 16 years.  She was always the most vulnerable of the three House NV Dems.

Dems were so stupid here in redistricting. They took way more Dems than they needed to from Titus.  They could have kept it at around 57% Biden if they just gave Horsford Reno (why not?  They gave him other rural counties didn’t they?).

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1585790988496547841

The funny thing is the better than Biden in KS-3 is completely consistent with Olmsted, Lancaster counties in the MN-1 and NE-1 special elections.

[jamestroll]

I wish they would poll VA 10, VA 07, and VA 02.

I am not saying dismiss polls. We can use polls to see that Democrats are clearly in a better position in PA Gov than PA Sen.. but.. uh... this cycle has been weird.

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1585790988496547841

I either never saw that poll or forgot all about it. If they actually underestimated Davids, then maybe the KS-03 numbers aren't so weird after all, given the swings mentioned above me.

sorry there's a level of wishcasting for my fellow lesbian here