NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[jimrtex]

Over or under 50% Nevada becomes Iowa 2.0?

The chances are lower because of the vast number of votes that were already cast (unless turnout hits 200.000 in total).

And even then, NV Dems use Ipads and Google to record the votes + a callcenter if these break down.

What happens if early voting is massively dissimilar to in-person voting, or if nobody shows up tomorrow? Supposedly 85,000 participated in 2012, but there were 70,000 in person early this year.

[jimrtex]

Well I think if there's one important thing that we all bear in mind with these results, it's that it's pronounced "NE-VAD-UH" and not "NE-VAH-DUH". 

Got yelled at by a girl in my undergrad sorority for getting it wrong

As an Austrian, I pronounce it "Näh-wuh-duh".

But you probably pronounce "Strine" like "Styrian"

[jimrtex]

Is this an assembled caucus or firehouse primary?

Yes.

There was early voting where voters could go to any location within their county, and fill out a ranked ballot. It is not quite like a primary because the ballots are signed. These ballots are attributed back to their home precinct. It appears that turnout at early voting was higher than in person. Many people have better things to do than spend a Saturday afternoon arguing politics.

At the in-person caucuses, voters align in groups. The votes of the early voters are then distributed, and it is determined which groups are viable (generally 15% of the total).

Non-viable groups can realign. This is a bit murky. I think the in person voters can realign, and then the non-viable early voters are realigned based on their additional preferences. This is really mixing up two different things, since in-person voters can have a dynamic effect, where a voter might join a more enthusiastic group, while the early voters are locked in.

[jimrtex]

I'm hearing time and time again the DNC should get rid of these Caucuses. It's actually not quite that simple. For example in Iowa to change the Caucus to a Primary there first needs to be a bill passed in the IA State Legislature to do that (and Republicans have a Majority there) and then it needs to be signed by Governor Reynolds to become Law (A POTUS Primary in IA is much more costly than a Caucus so Reynolds would probably veto it).

It's not that simple than you think.

The DNC could take a carrot and a stick approach.

Stick: You can keep your caucus, but you won't be first.

Carrot: You can have a firehouse primary, and take donations from the candidates to pay for it, or get the legislature to pay for it.

[jimrtex]

Is it just me or do some of our election tools appear virtually unworkable when it comes to data mining NV election results?

Additionally, there is no means to easily export data sets into Excel, where one can play around with and filter the data.

After you paste the results into Excel, which will have to be done 100 pages at a time,

Use an expressions like:

=INDIRECT(ADDRESS(ROW()+COLUMN()-1,1)) and repeat across (Bn:ALn) to get all the fields for a precinct.

After you have that select everything and copy and paste value.

Insert a column A and fill it with.

=IF(ISNUMBER(Bn),99999,ROW())

Copy column 1 and paste the values, then sort by Column A. All the extraneous rows will sort to the bottom. Delete them, and Column A.

I don't know how the precincts in Clark or Washoe or other counties are organized.

[jimrtex]

I'm not exactly sure how pledged "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" work when calculating statewide delegates, but I'm assuming they're just part of the regular pool. If not, I'll correct the numbers.

PLEO's are allocated separately from the At-Large delegates (5 and .

[jimrtex]

Lincoln County:

2020:     (47 Total Attendance)

Pete---         19 Votes      (40.4%)                        25 County Delegates
Bernie---      18 Votes      (38.3%)     (-1.6%)        24 County Delegates
Steyer--        7 Votes       (14.9%)                          6 County Delegates
Biden---        1 Vote        (2.1%)                            2 County Delegates
Warren---      1 Vote        (2.1%)                            1 County Delegate

How does having more county delegates than actual people showing up to the actual vote work out in the long run?

I have been to such a caucus in the past. Assuming NV rules are the same, the local chair strongly encourages every person there to be a delegate, and remaining delegates go unfilled. In this case, that means the precinct gets at most 46 delegates to the next higher level caucus.

But I dont know if they can pick delegates from among early voters in NV, or for that matter if the identity of early voters is even known for them to contact.

Nevada permits any registered Democrat in the precinct to be nominated as a county delegate, regardless of presence at the caucus. Early voters sign their ballots. They may have had an option to indicate they were willing to be a county delegate.

Nevada law also provides that if a precinct elects more delegates than caucus participants, all participants are automatic delegates. Presumably, this would apply to early voters (especially since it appears early voters were around 2/3 of all voters).

And finally, the allocation of national delegates is locked in based on election of county delegates. Nevada effectively uses SDE's, it is just that county delegates are apportioned uniformly across the state.