Pennsylvania seems quite gerrymandered, Democrats won the popular vote for the state House by 11 points in 2018 and still clearly lost the majority (rather than say a Virginia HoD situation where they come really close), Pennsylvania also being a swing state in 2020 could be bad for state Democrats here, the state House and presidential margins were relatively close in 2016. I'm not a very informed person on Pennsylvania politics but the current map seems very difficult for Democrats to win with, though it probably is possible. Is this right or am I missing something, and so how would this factor into an analysis of Pennsylvania's state legislature?
Yeah, pretty much. Trump only won SD-15 less than 5%, if the district just took in Camp Hill/Mechanicsburg it would almost certainly be a real swing seat, instead it takes in blood red Perry county and makes it a lean R seat. Also doesn't help that SD-48 takes in a chunk of Harrisburg.
Thankfully with Wolf's Veto, the State Supreme Court being overwhelmingly left wing, and the Demographics of the state favoring dems heavily...this will probably be the last election where Republicans get carried by a favorable map.
Also SD-9 was won by Clinton by like 13 points and the GOP senator just barely scraped by in 2016...that district should be like Likely/Lean D, not tilt.
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