European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

Great plot by the Green candidate Kogler:

Pulls out a blanko contract and signs an agreement handing over all campaign finances to the Court of Audit.

Then calls on the other 5 candidates to sign it as well.

Paper is handed over to every candidate. Every candidate signs it, even Vilimsky (FPÖ).

Also, Claudia Gamon (Neos) is very strong tonight: „Stop interrupting me. I‘m not done yet !“ (to Vilimsky).

[Andrea]

List of candidates and "professions de foi" by French parties

Rassemblement National
https://programme-candidats.interieur.gouv.fr/data-pdf-propagandes/e8320c119b07ba42d51e053859419aacedd1e153d85607ef16a1d7f3b08b8e6e-profession-de-foi.pdfdf


En Marche
https://programme-candidats.interieur.gouv.fr/data-pdf-propagandes/f88d9a7d5449d5bab146385d1e1142bfbb525c1b4e9b45e017624a864a2611e0-profession-de-foi.pdf

Les Republicains
https://programme-candidats.interieur.gouv.fr/data-pdf-propagandes/f41c83dd3994467a9351c73deaf4d63c2128dc661839da139421f43fbe703ec5-profession-de-foi.pdf

France Insoumise
https://programme-candidats.interieur.gouv.fr/data-pdf-propagandes/bc47eb397585a5f3ac4e550b4b3a91930bd520de5c09ab3475c36df148f90792-profession-de-foi.pdf


Greens
https://programme-candidats.interieur.gouv.fr/data-pdf-propagandes/b66a37fedcb6c6c2ed824785ea49384cdb17bda28d09535f79be79af7e483658-profession-de-foi.pdf


Socialists
https://programme-candidats.interieur.gouv.fr/data-pdf-propagandes/01a0512ea02eb650f3374545274a14dbd088805d738b4a6385d1c7626eeeaf32-profession-de-foi.pdf


Rest can be found here:
programme-candidats.interieur.gouv.fr

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Sweden Democrats have eliminated their current MEP, Kristina Winberg, from their list just a week before the election. The official reason is supposedly that she has behaved in an indiscriminate and disloyal fashion and has refused to act in accordance with party policy and their election communications strategy. Winberg made headlines in Sweden a few weeks ago when she named Victor Orbán as her main political role-model.      

However, it appears that the real reason that the party has kicked her off the list is that she alerted the party leadership to the fact that the party's other MEP and leading candidate Peter Lundgren had sexually assaulted a female party member during an event last year. Lundgren has since the story broke admitted that he put his hand on the woman and that it was an unwelcome advance but blames the fact that he was intoxicated at the moment and says that he and the woman has made up since the incident.

The newspaper Expressen has acquired a recorded conversation between Kristina Winberg and the female party member where they discuss the touching incident, which they apparently managed to get their hands on before Winberg was officially kicked-off the list. Winberg herself says she's not the one who has provided the paper with the material.  

https://www.thelocal.se/20190520/sweden-democrats-oust-mep-candidate-just-days-before-eu-election

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl poll, Netherlands (compared to EP14):

Forum voor Democratie 15% - 4 or 5 seats (+4/5)
VVD 15% - 4 or 5 seats (+1/2)
PvdA 13% - 4 seats (3 possible) (~/+1)
CDA 12.5% - 4 seats (3 possible) (-1/2)
GroenLinks 8% - 2 seats (3 possible) (~/+1)
CU-SGP 8% - 2 seats (~)
D66 7.5% - 2 seats (3 possible) (-1/2)
PvdD 4.5% - 1 seat (~)
PVV 4% - 1 seat (-3)
SP 4% - 1 seat (-1)
50Plus 3% - 0 seats (1 possible) (~/+1)
DENK 2% - 0 seats (~)
Volt 2% - 0 seats (~)

Really bad poll for GL, only 0.5% up from 2014. I think they will ultimately get their 3rd seat, but Timmermans' popularity among pro-EU progressives really hurts them. Also really bad for PVV and SP, who are dangerously close to the threshold of ~3.7%.

[Beezer]

Brexit Party with a significant lead in Wales as well / Brexit Party sydd ag arweiniad sylweddol yng Nghymru hefyd.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

My early prediction for the EU election, after the recent events:

37% ÖVP
30% SPÖ
12% NEOS
10% Greens
  9% FPÖ
  1% Europa
  1% KPÖ

OVP probably around 45% i think, and less for SPO and Greens.

45% ?

No way. They only got 27% in 2014. It's even possible that the FPÖ does not as badly as I predict here and that NEOS will get a good result this time. That means the ÖVP would get no more than 38-40% at best.

Likely FPO won't lose that much, but if FPO wins only 9%, their voters will vote mainly for OVP.

[Mike88]

Portugal: CESOP-UCP poll for RTP1:

Vote share %:

33% PS, 8/9 seats
23% PSD, 5/6
  9% BE, 2
  8% CDU, 2
  8% CDS, 2
  3% PAN, 0/1
  3% Alliance, 0/1
  6% Others, 0
  7% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 16 and 19 May 2019. Polled 1,882 voters. MoE of 2.3%.

[pilskonzept]

Portugal: CESOP-UCP poll for RTP1:

Vote share %:

33% PS, 8/9 seats
23% PSD, 5/6
  9% BE, 2
  8% CDU, 2
  8% CDS, 2
  3% PAN, 0/1
  3% Alliance, 0/1
  6% Others, 0
  7% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 16 and 19 May 2019. Polled 1,882 voters. MoE of 2.3%.

That crazy country where the 1990s - or really 1970s - party system lives on.

[Mike88]

Portugal: CESOP-UCP poll for RTP1:

Vote share %:

33% PS, 8/9 seats
23% PSD, 5/6
  9% BE, 2
  8% CDU, 2
  8% CDS, 2
  3% PAN, 0/1
  3% Alliance, 0/1
  6% Others, 0
  7% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 16 and 19 May 2019. Polled 1,882 voters. MoE of 2.3%.

That crazy country where the 1990s - or really 1970s - party system lives on.

Yeah, our political system is proving to be remarkably stable. To some extent, we, Portuguese, rather prefer the bad we already know than the good unknown.

Also, this poll has some weird crosstabs: https://www.publico.pt/2019/05/20/infografia/ps-lidera-frentes-317

- 68% say they will definitely vote/likely to vote on May 26 (turnout was 33.7% in 2014...)
- Women vote PS by more than 12%, 23% to PSD' 11%;
- Men vote also PS, but, by a much smaller scale, 21% to PSD' 14%;
- 18-24 year old's vote 16% in the PS and 11% in the PSD
- 25-34 year old's vote 17% PS, 12% BE and 6% PSD... What?!?
- The more educated you are, the less likely you are to vote PS: Voters without a high school degree vote 28% in PS and 11% in the PSD, while voters with a college degree vote 20% in the PS and 14% in the PSD;

Curious to see if the following polling confirms this trends for the PSD, and also the PS.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

FPO will most likely remain in the 15-20 %. A drop indeed but not so severe, their base is too loyal.

I would be really surprised if they remain that high after these events ... 10-14% is more likely now. I think they will be cut in half, as most of their voters are either not turning out to vote at all next Sunday, or vote ÖVP.

Who do you think who was behind that campaign? I'd bet the farm that Böhmermann was the initiator.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

MEanwhile, the TV debate with all German top candidates were foregathering.
Only the green Power Ranger was missing.

[Tender Branson]

FPO will most likely remain in the 15-20 %. A drop indeed but not so severe, their base is too loyal.

I would be really surprised if they remain that high after these events ... 10-14% is more likely now. I think they will be cut in half, as most of their voters are either not turning out to vote at all next Sunday, or vote ÖVP.

Who do you think who was behind that campaign? I'd bet the farm that Böhmermann was the initiator.

It’s quite likely that Böhmermann was the Urheber.

But he better not say so in public, or he needs to get some bodyguards in the future ...

[Zinneke]

MEanwhile, the TV debate with all German top candidates were foregathering.
Only the green Power Ranger was missing.

And Sonneborn

[DavidB.]

Baudet hands over his books to Rutte who tries to keep his composure but seems pretty sour, and he sets the terms for the debate that Rutte wanted: the evening before the election (Wednesday May 22) at 10 PM, no Dutch Public Broadcaster or interference of other tv studios, everything livestreamed on Facebook, moderator to be discussed, with the option of inviting over both EP leaders (Derk Jan Eppink for FVD, Malik Azmani for VVD) to take part in the debate too, in the presence of 150 FVD supporters and 150 VVD supporters.

This is happening now that the VVD has accepted all of Baudet's demands, with one exception: the moderator will be talkshow host Jeroen Pauw (who is as establishmentarian as it gets) and the debate will be broadcast at the Dutch Public Broadcaster on Pauw too. Rutte also didn't want EP leaders Eppink and Azmani to be involved.

The debate will take place right after a debate among the leading candidates for EP of most major parties, which has pissed off a lot of commentators, who think the Dutch Public Broadcaster shouldn't be involved in promoting what can be considered to be one big advertisement for FVD and VVD, without any other parties - especially because a two-horse race would be artificially created where there is none: Forum and VVD will together only receive approximately 30% of the vote.

Baudet, meanwhile, captured a lot of attention with a philosophical essay (very well-written, worth reading) on Houellebecq's oeuvre in American Affairs, in which he appeared to criticize euthanasia, abortion and the idea of female "liberation" through emancipation, sparking a lot of outrage. Not a vote-winner in the Netherlands, but it does put Baudet at the center of attention again and turns the election into another referendum on Thierry Baudet. This morning Baudet clarified in tv morning show WNL that FVD support the existing abortion and euthanasia legislation and do not seek to change it.

I do think this sort of stuff will lower the electoral ceiling of the party in the future even if it does drive up turnout right now. It scares off people who are disappointed with VVD and CDA but are, at heart, liberals, like most Dutch. The taboo on discussing issues like abortion and euthanasia is just too big.

[DavidB.]

Mark Harbers, the VVD Deputy Minister for Justice and Security who is responsible for asylum and immigration issues, says he "expects to resign" after a parliamentary debate on incorrect and incomplete numbers on crime by asylum seekers provided by his ministry, to be held now. Harbers says the use of the wrong numbers (which were on the low side of things, of course) was "not intentional" but "has much political weight". The most violent crimes were categorized as "other" instead of being named. Now it turns out that 0.14% of the population (asylum seekers) are responsible for 28% of murder cases.

Not really related to the EP election but voters will connect these things and it's not a good look for the VVD, on an issue on which it is perhaps most vulnerable. Malik Azmani, VVD leading candidate in the EP election, probably regrets going to Brussels now. He was considered to be the frontrunner to receive this job during the government formation in the first place.

[Tender Branson]

Krone EU poll for Tyrol, conducted slightly before Ibiza-Gate:



Very good results for the Greens considering the 2014 results there.

[Tender Branson]

The City of Salzburg reports that about 14.000-15.000 postal ballots will be requested for the EU election until Friday afternoon.

That would be almost 2x the amount requested for the 2014 election and almost federal election-like.

Not sure what it means for turnout, but considering Ibiza, turnout might be much higher on Sunday than usual ...

https://www.sn.at/salzburg/politik/stadt-salzburg-meldet-wahlkarten-rekord-fuer-eu-wahl-am-kommenden-sonntag-70577509

[Beezer]

What an amazing result it would be if Labour and the Tories fail to cross the 20% mark - combined.

[bigic]

Lib Dem S U R G E

I hope that this is a more fundamental political realignment, with Brexit Party and the Lib Dems becoming the 2 main parties.

[Beezer]

Some additional data:







https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/22/european-parliament-voting-intention-brex-37-lab-1

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/17/labour-and-tories-lose-majority-support-brexit-pro

[Walmart_shopper]

Lib Dem S U R G E

I hope that this is a more fundamental political realignment, with Brexit Party and the Lib Dems becoming the 2 main parties.

I think it's more likely that the Tories co-opt the values and principles of the Brexit Party (Boris will help with that) with its base in the middle class Midlands and Labour becomes a London-centered globalist liberal party, essentially co-opting the LibDems. The Cameron-inspired centrism of the Tories and the left-wing Corbynism of Labour will probably seem a blip on the radar screen of British political history, with Brexit just accelerating this alignment by forcing each party to choose where it stands with regards to the liberal order.

On the other hand, as in the US, it's hard to see riding the backs of middle class, white lives,  septegenarians as a durable political strategy. Cameron knew what he was onto, but a party dominated by insular rural old men is, after all, dominated by insular rural old men, and Davey learned that all top well.

[Zinneke]

Lib Dem S U R G E

I hope that this is a more fundamental political realignment, with Brexit Party and the Lib Dems becoming the 2 main parties.

I think it's more likely that the Tories co-opt the values and principles of the Brexit Party (Boris will help with that) with its base in the middle class Midlands and Labour becomes a London-centered globalist liberal party, essentially co-opting the LibDems.

Given the new membership of the party, and its central command, this is wishful thinking. It is London centric though.

[DaWN]

Lib Dem S U R G E

I hope that this is a more fundamental political realignment, with Brexit Party and the Lib Dems becoming the 2 main parties.

I think it's more likely that the Tories co-opt the values and principles of the Brexit Party (Boris will help with that) with its base in the middle class Midlands and Labour becomes a London-centered globalist liberal party, essentially co-opting the LibDems. The Cameron-inspired centrism of the Tories and the left-wing Corbynism of Labour will probably seem a blip on the radar screen of British political history, with Brexit just accelerating this alignment by forcing each party to choose where it stands with regards to the liberal order.

Yeah... dunno about that. It's far more likely Labour will continue to go down the far-left rabbit hole. In any case, if the actual Lib Dems re-establish themselves (will believe it upon seeing it) Labour trying to co-opt that position would be a bit of a fools errand, given their lack of credibility over the last three years or so on the issues that matter in that position.

I agree the Tories will go down the route of trying to emulate The Traitor. How much success they'll have there is very much up in the air, but then again, isn't everything these days?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

We will probably see a return of the three party system.

[Lord Halifax]

I would really appreciate some comments from Polish and French posters on the state of the race in their countries.