The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Likely Voter]

arent there 1175 pledged between now and CA?

3/26/2016   Alaska, Hawaii, Washington   142
4/5/2016   Wisconsin   86
4/9/2016   Wyoming   14
4/19/2016   New York   247
4/26/2016   Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island   384
5/3/2016   Indiana   83
5/7/2016   Guam   7
5/10/2016   West Virginia   29
5/17/2016   Kentucky, Oregon   116
6/4/2016   Virgin Islands   7
6/5/2016   Puerto Rico   60

via
https://ballotpedia.org/2016_presidential_nominations:_calendar_and_delegate_rules

[Likely Voter]

I did some very conservative estimates....

Date   States   Clinton%   Total (w/current supers)
3/26/2016   Alaska, Hawaii, Washington   35%   1775
4/5/2016   Wisconsin   40%   1809
4/9/2016   Wyoming   30%   1813
4/19/2016   New York   55%   1949
4/26/2016   Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island   50%   2141
5/3/2016   Indiana   50%   2183
5/7/2016   Guam   60%   2187
5/10/2016   West Virginia   40%   2198
5/17/2016   Kentucky, Oregon   35%   2239
6/4/2016   Virgin Islands   65%   2244
6/5/2016   Puerto Rico   65%   2283
6/7/2016   California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, N Dakota, S Dakota   50%   2630
6/14/2016   Washington, D.C.   75%   2645



If Clinton gets no more supers, then she goes over the top on June 7th (California). But if she performs better and gets most of the remaining supers on her side she could go over the top as early as April 26. Going over the top by PR seems very doable, but then again what is the point of declaring victory 2 days before California, it would look like she is trying to rig the big game right before it started.

[Likely Voter]

article on how Rubio is trying to keep delegates pledged to him, to keep them from being available to Trump
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/rubio-makes-unprecedented-bid-keep-delegates-contested-convention-n547646

[Likely Voter]

Karl Rove spoke about Rule 40

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.hughhewitt.com/karl-rove-state-play-re-contested-convention/

So according to Rove the rule is more about a nominating speeches, not votes. This actually makes more sense. Otherwise delegates from other candidates are in some kind of Twilight Zone where they can't vote for the person they are bound to but they cant vote for anyone else either.   

[Likely Voter]

The Sanders campaign has released their own delegate count
pledged: https://berniesanders.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Sanders-State-by-State-1.pdf
unpledged: https://berniesanders.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Sanders-Publicly-Committed.pdf

Their pledged count is actually lower than the one at the beginning of this thread, discrepancies in NV, KS, IL, and NC.  And of course, not sure if the Clinton campaign agrees with their count.

[Likely Voter]

If you are going to get your act together it is in CA. It is the biggest prize and you have the longest lead time and you have an ability to actually control your delegates. Anyone who gets that wrong doesn't deserve to be the nominee.

[Likely Voter]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.  

Jeff Weaver was on WADR and when pressed on how they plan to get to a majority he said in part would be their efforts to squeeze more out of the caucus state conventions, "15-20" in total.   He also said they would do very well in NY, and win PA, CT, RI, CA, OR, MT, SD and ND.

[Likely Voter]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.

Jeff Weaver was on WADR and when pressed on how they plan to get to a majority he said in part would be their efforts to squeeze more out of the caucus state conventions, "15-20" in total.   He also said they would do very well in NY, and win PA, CT, RI, CA, OR, MT, SD and ND.

They can very easily get one more out of Iowa, two more out of Nevada (though the latter might be subject to a credentials fight), but honestly that's about it.  15-20 isn't physically possible barring violence.

What about upcoming conventions from the other caucus states like ME, KS, NE,  ID, etc?