If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.
There were sizable swings in favor of the incumbent president's party in the Upper Midwest between 2010 and 2012 as well as between 2018 and 2020, so Whitmer losing would not at all point toward a Biden loss in MI in 2024. Granted, a lot of those swings from 2010/2018 can be attributed to the disparity in R and D turnout (which I don’t think will be nearly as pronounced in 2022), but it’s still important not to read this much into these races for 2024.
I've actually got somewhat of a working theory that loss of congress might the give the incumbent president a little more benefit of the doubt amongst the public. Again, I'm placing emphasis on "benefit of the doubt" rather than popularity. I don't know if this is credible or just a stupid shower thought, but it seems reasonable to me that a swing state like Michigan could hand the opposition party victories in the midterm, then shift more towards the incumbent party after the opposition inevitably makes fools of themselves once in control of congress. Again, this isn't a hill I'd die on, but since congress is consistently viewed as the least popular institution in America, it stands to reason that control of congress doesn't do a party any favors, especially among swing voters that are always choosing what they consider the lesser of two evils.
