AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

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So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

If true, this is terrible for the GOP. They can't afford to have Sinema siphoning this many votes away from them

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Sinema is very obviously not going to get votes from either partisan Democrats or MAGA Republicans. The people who are going to vote for her in a race with Gallego and Lake are Biden-McSally voters. And given a binary choice between Gallego and Lake, I think most of those people would vote for Gallego.

I just don't really see an argument for the idea that Sinema running as an independent would result in her taking more votes from the Republican candidate.

Sinema has a higher favorability rating among Republicans than she does with Democrats