2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[ON Progressive]

How is that voter suppression lol, we have three weeks of early voting.  Nobody forced you to go out in day 1.  My family is helping with the polls in two counties this year, so I can provide updates on what’s going on.

2+ hour lines are absolutely voter suppression, and there is zero excuse for having multi-hour voting lines when literally every other democracy on Earth (hell, many other states!) don't have them.

[ON Progressive]

How is that voter suppression lol, we have three weeks of early voting.  Nobody forced you to go out in day 1.  My family is helping with the polls in two counties this year, so I can provide updates on what’s going on.

2+ hour lines are absolutely voter suppression, and there is zero excuse for having multi-hour voting lines when literally every other democracy on Earth (hell, many other states!) don't have them.

We have early voting for the next three weeks, mail in voting, absentee ballots, ect.  Those people didn’t have to go wait in line.

"Just wait two weeks for the lines to thin out" won't work when there's only 11 early voting sites in Cobb (so 1 site for every 48k active voters) and 9 in Gwinnett (1 for every 62,359 active voters).

For perspective on how ridiculous this is, British Columbia's upcoming provincial election has 341 early voting sites across a province of 3,485,858 voters which is 1 site for every 10,222 people.

[ON Progressive]

will we get any data on early voters who are also first time voters in their respective states?

We have some data for that in Florida:
https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1316132569969307651

[ON Progressive]

This is bad for Biden.
High turnout in these even slightly red counties does not help.

Except:

[ON Progressive]

I feel like citing raw # of lead in Florida rather than by % to portray the dynamics of the race is misguided.
Just look at the Siena/NYT poll.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/flpa-0930-crosstabs/16c21b7ab34ed4d1/full.pdf

Vote intention (D/R/I)

Mail (42/24/38)
Early voting in person (34/23/25)
Voting on election day (18/48/35)

In other words, Democrats are supposed to have a lead in both mail and early voting in person. The fact that Republicans are outpacing in early voting so far might mean that either greater % of Republicans than estimated are demonizing mail voting, or that Democrats are over-worried about covid and sticking to mail voting.*

The latter seems unlikely to me, at least enough to the point that it skews the picture of the race. Not a doomer, but I'm not sure that Democrats are doing as well as people are suggesting.

Edited*

There are several problems here:
1) the sample sizes of these crosstabs are gonna be very small in a poll of 700-something people
2) people often lie or change their mind about voting method! there’s no reason not to believe that a significant number of Rs switched from e-day to in-person early voting!