2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[DINGO Joe]

Louisiana issues first early report--175,000.  80,000 in person and 95,000 absentee.  By contrast, the total for all 2016 was 530,000.  468,000 IP and 63,000 AB.  Heavy D skew as elsewhere.  I guess most amusingly illustrated by St. Tammany which had a more than 2-1 R adv in 2016 starts off with a 5500 to 5000 R adv this time.

[DINGO Joe]

While the lines and early "returns" don't necessarily tell us much about the actual Election Night outcomes, they at least indicate an electorate that is eager to lock in their votes now.  To me, this suggests that there are far fewer undecideds in this race. 

Well, the D part of the electorate is motivated to vote early, the R part not so much, partly because Orange man says bad, though the Rs still send out emails begging their voters to vote early.

[Umengus]

So for now:

National:

Mail in ballots requested: D 47 R 30 I 23 (61,7 millions)
Mail in AND early in person ballots returned: D 49 R 33 I 18 (21,2 millions)

Some results (in some states, early in person ballots is not possible)

Texas: Mails in (15 %) and early in person ballots (85 %) returned = R +11

Michigan: Mails in ballots requested: R +2
               Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: R +2

Wisconsin: Mails in ballots requested: R +2
                Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +2

Ohio: Mails in ballots requested: R +4
         Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: R +6

Florida: Mails in ballots requested: D +13
            Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +19

NC: Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +27

Georgia: Mails in ballots requested: D +3
              Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +2

Pennsylvania: Mails in ballots requested: D +40
                     Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D+48

Arizona: Mails in ballots requested: D +0
             Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D+14

Iowa: Mails in ballots requested: D +19
         Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +26

Nevada: Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D+23

Virginia: Mails in ballots requested: D +18
             Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +15

Minnesota: Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D+21


source: NBC/target smart

[redjohn]

Wisconsin: Mails in ballots requested: R +2
                Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +2

Is this data collected by looking at whether someone previously voted in the Democratic or GOP primaries? We don’t have party registration so I’m wondering as to what they’re getting this from.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1317448995569094656

This makes me optimistic about Florida...

[Dr. Arch]

Wisconsin: Mails in ballots requested: R +2
                Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +2

Is this data collected by looking at whether someone previously voted in the Democratic or GOP primaries? We don’t have party registration so I’m wondering as to what they’re getting this from.

Yeah, no, that makes zero sense based on where the votes are coming from. Whatever model or person is projecting that is way off.

[Holmes]

So we’ve hit 25 million just in time for the weekend. I wonder if we can hit 30 million by the end of the weekend.

Also please don’t post Target Smart. It’s trash.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’m very pleased with turnout in Hidalgo, Cameron, and El Paso, and that is very promising for Biden statewide. The only counties that concern me in terms of turning out Dems along the border are Webb (Laredo) and the rural super Dem environs around. The South Texas rurals don’t have a whole lot of raw votes, but it would still be nice if they were on pace to break 2016 turnout

I am assuming that Fort Bend is an anomaly caused by some incompetence at the clerk’s office, because demographically similar counties have high turnout.

[wbrocks67]

Given that 3.4 million voters have already voted in TX with 17 days to go, it would appear likely that A) pollsters are probably going to be off this year in TX and B) Biden has a true 50/50 shot at taking the state.

Given TX and GA's absolutely monstrous voting so far, I really hope they send some more $$ to both places. Judging by these #s, he absolutely has a shot in both

[soundchaser]

Pure speculation here, but I wonder if we're seeing a sort of psychological phenomenon in Texas and Georgia where suddenly low-propensity voters who thought their vote wouldn't matter in either state are going to turn out in huge numbers because things look much closer this election. I'm not sure how you'd go about proving that, admittedly.

[wbrocks67]

Pure speculation here, but I wonder if we're seeing a sort of psychological phenomenon in Texas and Georgia where suddenly low-propensity voters who thought their vote wouldn't matter in either state are going to turn out in huge numbers because things look much closer this election. I'm not sure how you'd go about proving that, admittedly.

I agree with this take. Not to mention, I think a lot of those lower propensity voters may be turned off by the GOP voter suppression tactics and are now making sure they go out and vote b/c people are trying to take their vote away.

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1317448995569094656

This makes me optimistic about Florida...

I did no realize there was such a significant turnout difference between democrats and republicans in FL 2016...  Do we have the numbers for 2018?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I voted early today in Texas. Based on 2016/2018 turnout statistics and the Tarrant County early vote turnout data by hour (showing how many people vote at different times during the day), I guesstimated that probably the least crowded time to vote would be on a Saturday morning very earl in the morning. This also makes sense, because who really wants to get up early on a Saturday, rather than sleep in? I also went to an early voting location that had lower turnout in previous days to minimize the risk that I help to spread the virus.

It is a ridiculous travesty, however, that people are being forced to vote in person rather than allowing everyone to vote by mail. As I signed in to vote, I looked at the poll workers who were signing me in and setting me up to vote. There were 4 of them (and others in different parts of the voting location), all of whom were old, and some of whom clearly had risk conditions such as obesity, and no doubt others had other risk conditions that are not visible that make them more vulnerable to the virus.

As I showed my voter registration card/signed in/etc, I thought to myself that some of these poll workers (and also some of the voters) will end up getting infected and dying in the process of voting/helping people to vote. There is no way to tell which individuals exactly those will be, but there is an absolute certainty that some of them will lay down their lives (or perhaps "only" their health). Hopefully I myself didn't unknowingly infect anyone (or get infected).

The poll workers remind me of British soldiers in the World War 1 Battle of the Somme. Because of poor leadership of General Haig (Republican elected officials), they are told to go over the top and charge enemy machine guns, senselessly. Their deaths will be totally unnecessary and serve no purpose, because everyone could have simply voted by mail. But, they will have died for their country. Due to the negligence, incompetence, and willful bloodlust of their leaders.

The Republican elected officials such as Greg Abbott (and IDK, perhaps there are some Democrats as well doing the same thing) who are refusing in many states/localities to allow universal mail voting are worse than insurgent fighters who have killed American soldiers in places like Iraq/Afghanistan. At least in the case of Taliban etc killing American soldiers, they are killing a foreign occupying army, not killing their own people. These Republican officials, by contrast, deliberately kill their own people, their own countrymen and countrywomen. Rather than protecting the American people, they do the opposite, and knowingly murder their fellow Americans, for no good reason.

I hope that if/when the Democrats are elected and get a Trifecta, one of their first acts is to pass a bill to build a new national monument to the poll workers and voters who needlessly sacrificed their lives to the country in 2020 in order to vote, and also to cover the funeral expenses of all poll workers who die as a result of their service in the 2020 election. Also all poll workers who get infected but survive with any persistent damage to their health should be counted as veterans and receive life-long access to free medical care from the Department of Veterans Affairs, just as do combat veterans from foreign wars. We all owe them a great debt of gratitude.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm pumped to see these numbers. We're getting some D votes banked in.
I just hope it's enough to overcome the R advantage in Election Day votes.

[mijan]

WI early voting stats updated
853 k people voted so far.
Dane 138653
Milwaukee 138382
Brown 44150
Waukesha 70520

https://elections.wi.gov/node/7186

[Adam Griffin]

Pure speculation here, but I wonder if we're seeing a sort of psychological phenomenon in Texas and Georgia where suddenly low-propensity voters who thought their vote wouldn't matter in either state are going to turn out in huge numbers because things look much closer this election. I'm not sure how you'd go about proving that, admittedly.

I can't speak much to TX other than its population is booming, but GA's automatic voter registration system began in January 2017 and has now had nearly 4 years to propagate.

It's technically quasi-AVR since it is done via the DMV: poorer people (who are of course low-propensity) are more likely to renew their licenses every 5 years as opposed to 8 due to cost. That of course means the vast majority of these individuals are now registered to vote when they might have not been otherwise. Georgia active registered voters are now 95% of VEP (including inactive RVs, 102%). Even in 2018, the effect of AVR would have only been half as strong as it is now.

GA of course also took the liberty of sending mail ballot applications for the primary & sent ballots automatically to anybody who requested one in the primary if they were 65+, disabled, veteran or overseas (historically, you have to opt-in for ballots for each election in a cycle and be in one of those groups - this is why the number of automatically mailed ballots in the 2020 GE for these groups was 2.5x greater than all mail ballots cast in the 2016 GE).

[wbrocks67]

Those FL #s continue to be striking.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1317474746741579776

[Asta]

Wisconsin: Mails in ballots requested: R +2
                Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +2

Is this data collected by looking at whether someone previously voted in the Democratic or GOP primaries? We don’t have party registration so I’m wondering as to what they’re getting this from.

That's what they claim: voting history, demographics and consumer interest. But this completely conflicts with polls showing that those that voted already are overwhelmingly democratic. I think 25% of Democrats in WI that were polled already voted early; only 5% of Republicans according to Siena/NYT poll.

Either polls will be historically atrocious or TargetSmart is up to something.

[swf541]

Wisconsin: Mails in ballots requested: R +2
                Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +2

Is this data collected by looking at whether someone previously voted in the Democratic or GOP primaries? We don’t have party registration so I’m wondering as to what they’re getting this from.

That's what they claim: voting history, demographics and consumer interest. But this completely conflicts with polls showing that those that voted already are overwhelmingly democratic. I think 25% of Democrats in WI that were polled already voted early; only 5% of Republicans according to Siena/NYT poll.

Either polls will be historically atrocious or TargetSmart is up to something.

Well given TargetSmart's history they're up to smth alright, being massively off as per normal for them lol

[Asta]

Wisconsin: Mails in ballots requested: R +2
                Mails in ballots and early in person ballots returned: D +2

Is this data collected by looking at whether someone previously voted in the Democratic or GOP primaries? We don’t have party registration so I’m wondering as to what they’re getting this from.

That's what they claim: voting history, demographics and consumer interest. But this completely conflicts with polls showing that those that voted already are overwhelmingly democratic. I think 25% of Democrats in WI that were polled already voted early; only 5% of Republicans according to Siena/NYT poll.

Either polls will be historically atrocious or TargetSmart is up to something.

Well given TargetSmart's history they're up to smth alright, being massively off as per normal for them lol

I don't know their history so you fill me in. In WI's case, Democrats are actually doing worse (42-33) at this point than in 2016 (51-35). It defies logic.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Adam Griffin: what was the official white-black percentage of the electorate in GA in 2016/18 (not exit polls)?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Guys, don't use TargetSmart.  You may as well just pick random numbers out of a hat and say Republicans are up 25 in Wisconsin.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1317448995569094656

This makes me optimistic about Florida...

I did no realize there was such a significant turnout difference between democrats and republicans in FL 2016...  Do we have the numbers for 2018?

Not sure but I think the common wisdom in Florida is that republicans can only win if democratic turnout is lower than theirs.  Biden seems likely to win Florida independents so that’s probably especially true this year.

[Holmes]

Those FL #s continue to be striking.

Yeah, it looks like the difference between Ds and Rs will be 500k before early voting starts. And there are still some very Democratic counties whose return rates are below the statewide average (Miami-Dade and Orange in particular, but also Broward and Hillsborough).

We’ve seen in North Carolina that the early vote is still very Democratic (although less so than the mail votes). I expect that trend to be the same in Florida.