2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[cinyc]

These laws in state Constitutions regarding keeping gerrymandering down to a dull roar should really be given more respect by arrogant partisan state legislatures. State supreme courts do have plenty of partisan hacks in them, but they are not as hackish as the state legislators themselves.

The elephant is the room of course is NYS, where the legislature displayed hubris on steroids, and just ignored the Constitution regarding gerrymandering as if it were not there. They were that confident about the hack quotient of NYS higher courts. We shall see.

Sean Trende was the main expert witness for the Rs in both MD and NY. Here’s what the MD judge said about his testimony in the MD case:

“Mr. Trende’s presentation was an example of a deliberate, multifaceted, and reliable presentation that this fact finder found and determined to be very powerful.”

If that’s repeated in the NY case, the NY map could get struck down, at least at the lower court level, too.

Full MD opinion here:
http://circuitcourt.org/images/pdf/C-02-CV-21-001816/Memorandum-Opinion-032522-SIGNED.pdf

[patzer]

Reposting this for no particular reason

That blue district seems awfully long and spindly thanks to being divided by the water- to get from one end to another you'd have to drive in a hook shape.

Something like this might be more compact? Eight Biden districts, but the eastern two are only +2 and +3 while the western one is only +11, so it's pretty competitive.

[lfromnj]

These laws in state Constitutions regarding keeping gerrymandering down to a dull roar should really be given more respect by arrogant partisan state legislatures. State supreme courts do have plenty of partisan hacks in them, but they are not as hackish as the state legislators themselves.

The elephant is the room of course is NYS, where the legislature displayed hubris on steroids, and just ignored the Constitution regarding gerrymandering as if it were not there. They were than confident about the hack quotient of NYS higher courts. We shall see.

And then you have Ohio where the Rs refused to try anything congressionally  but the court is demanding a mathematical impossibility at the legislative level.

Well that is playing the card of making the court draw the map, so it is only good for two years, and then pack the court one way or the other to ramp up its hack quotient. Too bad there isn't a hell, because if there were, they would all be going to hell for the redistricting sins.

Yeah it's still incredible the court is somehow demanding not only there be proportional seats in outcome but also the the fact there has to be an equal amount of competitive seats on both sides. R's made a mostly good faith effort IMO for the legislative maps other than Dayton.

[Nyvin]

It's extremely easy to draw a 6-1-1 map in MD that has 7 Biden seats,  can't the Democrats just clean up the lines a bit and make MD-1 safe R and call it good?  I don't think a full 6-2 is really necessary.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Reposting this for no particular reason

That blue district seems awfully long and spindly thanks to being divided by the water- to get from one end to another you'd have to drive in a hook shape.

Something like this might be more compact? Eight Biden districts, but the eastern two are only +2 and +3 while the western one is only +11, so it's pretty competitive.

Issue is one could argue that Baltimore seat cracks the black community

[Badger]

These laws in state Constitutions regarding keeping gerrymandering down to a dull roar should really be given more respect by arrogant partisan state legislatures. State supreme courts do have plenty of partisan hacks in them, but they are not as hackish as the state legislators themselves.

The elephant is the room of course is NYS, where the legislature displayed hubris on steroids, and just ignored the Constitution regarding gerrymandering as if it were not there. They were than confident about the hack quotient of NYS higher courts. We shall see.

And then you have Ohio where the Rs refused to try anything congressionally  but the court is demanding a mathematical impossibility at the legislative level.

Well that is playing the card of making the court draw the map, so it is only good for two years, and then pack the court one way or the other to ramp up its hack quotient. Too bad there isn't a hell, because if there were, they would all be going to hell for the redistricting sins.

R's made a mostly good faith effort IMO for the legislative maps other than Dayton.

 Citation desperately needed.

[Sol]

Reposting this for no particular reason

That blue district seems awfully long and spindly thanks to being divided by the water- to get from one end to another you'd have to drive in a hook shape.

Something like this might be more compact? Eight Biden districts, but the eastern two are only +2 and +3 while the western one is only +11, so it's pretty competitive.

Issue is one could argue that Baltimore seat cracks the black community

That Baltimore seat fwiw is almost certainly majority Black--alternatively one could argue that putting the western burbs in the Baltimore seat is packing

[lfromnj]

These laws in state Constitutions regarding keeping gerrymandering down to a dull roar should really be given more respect by arrogant partisan state legislatures. State supreme courts do have plenty of partisan hacks in them, but they are not as hackish as the state legislators themselves.

The elephant is the room of course is NYS, where the legislature displayed hubris on steroids, and just ignored the Constitution regarding gerrymandering as if it were not there. They were than confident about the hack quotient of NYS higher courts. We shall see.

And then you have Ohio where the Rs refused to try anything congressionally  but the court is demanding a mathematical impossibility at the legislative level.

Well that is playing the card of making the court draw the map, so it is only good for two years, and then pack the court one way or the other to ramp up its hack quotient. Too bad there isn't a hell, because if there were, they would all be going to hell for the redistricting sins.

R's made a mostly good faith effort IMO for the legislative maps other than Dayton.

 Citation desperately needed.

Prove to me where the map is gerrymandered against Democrats other than Dayton? edit: There is one state house seat in Delaware county as well.

[Unelectable Bystander]

A huge win for the proportionality lovers! Lol

[jamestroll]

Whether it is done in Utah or Maryland.. I dislike partisan gerrymandering power grabs.

I mean, what is the point of voting if results are predetermined?

[Pericles]

The Maryland map was pretty atrocious. Given that the national map seems surprisingly fair, this is probably a good thing, though we hope that Republicans don't win the House by a seat or two in 2024 or another election.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1507451629104254976

What does this even mean?

[lfromnj]

Also the ruling is pretty damn harsh with timing. They only have 3 days after the weekend.  I don't know why they took so long to have the trial in the first place.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

While MD Rs are not owed any congressional seats, this ruling advancing proportionality as a goal and so I'm not so opposed to it as I otherwise would be.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's surprisingly hard to cancel out Cecil and Harford County's Republican leans with Baltimore without makign something illegal or just really disgusting. If I were Dems, I would put Cecil in MD-01 and attach it to Ann-Arbour likely creating a narrow but still winnable Trump seat.

Then MD-02 could be be safer suburban Baltimore seat and MD-06 as others have shown above becomes Biden + 9ish.

I really don't trust MD Dems though. I rlly feel like they're going to make a fair map from a partisanship standpoint that's still hideous somehow.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does this increase the chances of NY's map being overturned?

Congressional Redistricting lawsuits have had a decently high rate of success this cycle to the point where this more open-ended interpreation of states equal protection clause or whatever is becoming a precedent almost.

I'm curious to see what happens in Kansas too.

[Sol]

It's surprisingly hard to cancel out Cecil and Harford County's Republican leans with Baltimore without makign something illegal or just really disgusting. If I were Dems, I would put Cecil in MD-01 and attach it to Ann-Arbour likely creating a narrow but still winnable Trump seat.

Then MD-02 could be be safer suburban Baltimore seat and MD-06 as others have shown above becomes Biden + 9ish.

I really don't trust MD Dems though. I rlly feel like they're going to make a fair map from a partisanship standpoint that's still hideous somehow.

IMO the court is probably not going to agree to something without at least a shored up MD-01. I suspect it gets both Harford and Cecil, plus maybe redder bits of Baltco. Andy Harris will never have to worry about reelection, no matter how vile he gets.

[smoltchanov]

Whether it is done in Utah or Maryland.. I dislike partisan gerrymandering power grabs.

I mean, what is the point of voting if results are predetermined?

101% agree. That's exactly why my interest (almost 50 years old) in US elections greatly diminished of late: more then 90% of outcomes are predetermined long before elections. And primaries only add to that: there is no interest to observe primary between, say, 6 ultraliberal Democrats or 7 ultraconservative Republicans. In the past, when both political parties ran almost whole ideological spectrum, it was much more interesting..

[MillennialModerate]

This likely brings Maryland from 7-1 Dem to … 6-2 Dem?

2 seat swing not the end of the world as long as Ohio ends up 8-7ish (which would be a 7 seat swing)

[Torie]

While MD Rs are not owed any congressional seats, this ruling advancing proportionality as a goal and so I'm not so opposed to it as I otherwise would be.

What the ruling did was hold that under the MD Constitution which has respect for jurisdictions as a metric and compactness but not proportionality, what one cannot do is to traduce those metrics to secure partisan advantage. In other words, you cannot gerrymander to screw a party out of seats that moves away from proportionality. If the metrics were hewed to, and the map was 8-0, and that is what a reasonable degree of monte carlo simulations came up with, so be it.

[Stuart98]

It's risky, but Dems could try some sort of Trendsmander like this:



Goes from 5-3 in Pres 2016


to 8-0 in 2020.

[lfromnj]

Yup overall sounds like MD Ds are going for a redraw later based on any lack of statement for an appeal.

[Torie]

If the court means what it says about enforcing the constitutional metrics of compactness and respecting counties and sub-jurisdictions, it is not going to be easy to deny the Pubs two seats.
There is no good reason to have more than 7 county chops in MD, or any extra muni chops. So with that stricture, and viewing water with tunnels or bridges as breaking contiguity, there are two equally good choices to my eye, with about the same partisan effect:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the court means what it says about enforcing the constitutional metrics of compactness and respecting counties and sub-jurisdictions, it is not going to be easy to deny the Pubs two seats.
There are two equally good choices to my eye, with about the same partisan effect.

Couldn't Ds just put Carroll in with northern Baltimore, force the 6th into more of PG County, and deny Rs two seats?

[Nyvin]

There doesn't seem to be any demand that Carroll be put in MD-6.