will Barack Obama be re-elected?

[pbrower2a]

When you got as much charisma and persuadability as Obama, it would take a thermonuclear holocaust to lose reelection. The economic downturn started during Bush's term and he can always leave the blame on the Bush regime. And when the economy gets worse he can just claim it's just an aftereffect of Republican policies enacted a long time ago blah blah blah and knowing the guillability of the electorate, they might just buy it.

The damage that the previous administration did to the economy will take years to undo. We can see it in a declining dollar, commodity prices from cocoa to gasoline, costs of imports and foreign travel, and a falling standard of living. Ordinarily pro-business conservatives call for sacrifices so that Big Business can invest in plant and equipment, research and development, and the like. Now it simply enriches executives who wield dictatorial power over employees. Hint: it's ordinarily a good idea to leave the family farm -- but not in the last ten years. When the quick, easy money is to be made by legalized loansharking, we have big problems.

The American public recognizes that things are bad -- but perhaps not how bad. We might have been better off to let the failed giant banks go under; all that they were able to do that the smaller banks were unable to do was to play a shell game of getting increasingly-bigger volumes of loans irrespective of quality. To Hell with that sort of banking! I'd love to see some of the high-flying bankers of five years ago have to pawn off their Mercedes-Benz autos for bus fares, beans, and rent for some cr@ppy apartment.

The only way for us to get out of this mess is to do what we used to do well -- small business.
 

I think the way I worded this came out awkward. I'm not saying the Republicans are free of guilt or playing partisan here, just saying that Obama is too charismatic and persuasive to the average joe to lose reelection. Once again, he's a master debater (I had to).

Well, I hate to be the one to tell you that you are as big a dumbass as everyone thinks, but you are.  Obama is hardly a "master debater" (he's sub-par at best).  The only thing he's good at is framing the issues so that he favors him, which wasn't exactly difficult last year.  This far out, it's way too early to say what will happen in 2012, but to say that the only way Obama loses is if a thermonuclear holocaust occurs is beyond stupid.  Finally, what is a libertarian doing talking about 'social justice'?  Get out of here.

I do not claim to be a libertarian. I discussed social justice as an ideal  -- an alternative to the power of cartels and monopolies that dictate terms of trade as competitive businesses can't. If anything, high graduated taxes would encourage competition as it did in the 1950s. If low taxes promote monopolies and cartels that destroy consumer choice (without which capitalism is another form of command system) and concentrate wealth among a few tycoons and bureaucratic retainers, then one might as well use high taxes at the least to pay off deficits. I prefer a society in which nobody has an inherent right to exploit the weakness of another through the stark "my terms or do without" offering that a monopolist offers. Corporate control of terms of trade can be a form of despotism.  

Presidential and Vice-Presidential debates get much attention, but that attention belies the relative scarcity of opportunities for debates in governing. The President makes speeches in office; he rarely debates.  

If you think someone too stupid to be a participant in these forums, then use your "ignore list".

[pbrower2a]

Understood and accepted.

[Mechaman]

Look Vanderblubb, sometimes I think the power of words are too powerful and I forget how powerful reality can be (yes I looked at the thread with the 2008 election being predicted in 2005, lulz). I haven't totally changed my mind but now things look 50-50 to me. I honestly think the economy can get worse than it is right now and I believe that can have an effect on Obama's election chances. Personally I think alot of the economic policies he's pursuing are crazy (look at my economic score for crying out loud). I guess I should give the average American more credit.......
So yeah you're right, I am a dumbass. But in my defense I've had only 5 hours of sleep in the past two days so my judgement may be a little cloudy.
But could've you been at least a little more civil about it?
And also, where the hell do I talk about social justice?

[Democratic Hawk]

In 2012, if 1) the economy has rebounded nicely; 2) there are no unpopular foreign wars and 3) there is no major scandal in which the president is complicit, Obama wins re-election - and handsomely

[Vepres]

In 2012, if 1) the economy has rebounded nicely; 2) there are no unpopular foreign wars and 3) there is no major scandal in which the president is complicit, Obama wins re-election - and handsomely

What if all that happens healthcare blows up in his face? I know Clinton survived, but unlike Clinton, Obama practically made universal healthcare the center of his campaign.

[Rowan]

A lot of it will hinge on how he handles the Israeli attack on Iran.

[Joe Republic]

A lot of it will hinge on how he handles the Israeli attack on Iran.

Don't forget the North Korean attack on South Korea.  Oh, and the Prussian attack on Muscovia, too.  And the Romulan attempt to implode Earth as well; that's going to be the real test for Obama.

[Rowan]

I fear Obama's gut reaction will be to help Iran.

[Mechaman]

A lot of it will hinge on how he handles the Israeli attack on Iran.

Don't forget the North Korean attack on South Korea.  Oh, and the Prussian attack on Muscovia, too.  And the Romulan attempt to implode Earth as well; that's going to be the real test for Obama.

I lawled hard

[Mechaman]

In 2012, if 1) the economy has rebounded nicely; 2) there are no unpopular foreign wars and 3) there is no major scandal in which the president is complicit, Obama wins re-election - and handsomely

What if all that happens healthcare blows up in his face? I know Clinton survived, but unlike Clinton, Obama practically made universal healthcare the center of his campaign.

That is also true. It seems like the only two things I hear out of Obama are: 1)Buy Murican and 2)Universal Healthcare.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A lot of it will hinge on how he handles the Israeli attack on Iran.

Don't forget the North Korean attack on South Korea.  Oh, and the Prussian attack on Muscovia, too.  And the Romulan attempt to implode Earth as well; that's going to be the real test for Obama.

[pogo stick]

IDK honestly.

[The Duke]

GHW Bush: a dinosaur. He couldn't offer a credible Second Act.

Carter: eccentric and muddled.

LBJ: caused a badly-going war to bloat.

I think part of his point is that none of those things would have described those people a year into their Presidencies.

His point is that suggesting that a President will or will not be re-elected based on his approval numbers during his honeymoon period is, well, problematic.  Most of the things that will decided Obama's fate have not even happenned yet.

[CJK]

Interesting tidbit: George H.W. Bush's approval rating was 66% as late as October 1991.

[pbrower2a]

Interesting tidbit: George H.W. Bush's approval rating was 66% as late as October 1991.

... and he had no idea of what to do next. Such happens when one achieves everything that one wants to achieve in four years. Considering how the world changed between 1989 and 1993, with the fall of Communism in Europe, the overthrow of a drug-dealing anti-American dictator in Panama, and the military emasculation of a would-be Napoleon in the Middle East, I would say that GHWB was a success as President.

Obama can't solve every problem that he thinks America has by 2012.

[DS0816]

I answered this question in another thread on Barack Obama retaining the state of Florida in Election 2012. (Answer to that question is yes.)

Early prediction: Barack Obama will be a two-term president. And he will gain in electoral votes. I noted that—with exception of Woodrow Wilson, and not counting the non-consecutive two terms of Grover Cleveland (which is unusual) and Franklin Roosevelt (elected not twice but four times)—all other two-term presidents ending up netting additional Electoral College votes.

For those wanting to speculate early, and predict an Obama re-election, please note that historical fact and let your two-cents reflect a gain in the Electoral College of Election 2012.

[DS0816]

Note: I'm not a premium member, so I'm not aware whether I can generate a 2012 electoral map.

One thing I have considered: When it comes to Election 2012, if President Barack Obama (D-Illinois) loses any states, he'll take some away from the GOP and net a gain in electoral votes. (Say, for example, the GOP wins back Republican bastion Indiana. Obama counters with bellwether Missouri—won by less 4,000 votes by a 2008 John McCain—and he also grabs Montana. It has voted the same as Colorado in all post-World War II elections, save for '08—in which Obama did not quite collapse the 20-point margin George W. Bush had in carrying the Big Sky State in 2004; shifting 18 points Democratic, Obama lost Mont. by 11,000-plus votes and 2.5 percentage points.)

Another thing is this: If Obama is considered a success by Election 2012, he may be in for a landslide in both the popular vote (10 percentage points, minimum) and Electoral College (which has never been officially defined). In that scenario, he doesn't surrender a single state—not even Ind.—carried in Election 2008. And he builds on top of that electoral success in adding numerous others. Which ones are a matter of determination, speculation, and what-have-you.

[pbrower2a]

Note: I'm not a premium member, so I'm not aware whether I can generate a 2012 electoral map.

One thing I have considered: When it comes to Election 2012, if President Barack Obama (D-Illinois) loses any states, he'll take some away from the GOP and net a gain in electoral votes. (Say, for example, the GOP wins back Republican bastion Indiana. Obama counters with bellwether Missouri—won by less 4,000 votes by a 2008 John McCain—and he also grabs Montana. It has voted the same as Colorado in all post-World War II elections, save for '08—in which Obama did not quite collapse the 20-point margin George W. Bush had in carrying the Big Sky State in 2004; shifting 18 points Democratic, Obama lost Mont. by 11,000-plus votes and 2.5 percentage points.)

Another thing is this: If Obama is considered a success by Election 2012, he may be in for a landslide in both the popular vote (10 percentage points, minimum) and Electoral College (which has never been officially defined). In that scenario, he doesn't surrender a single state—not even Ind.—carried in Election 2008. And he builds on top of that electoral success in adding numerous others. Which ones are a matter of determination, speculation, and what-have-you.

You can create maps: use someone else's from within a quote and modify it at will.

Here's my interpretation of your scenario:

key (2008 electoral vote allocation):

maroon: the so-called Blue Firewall, Obama won above 9% in 2008
red: solid Obama wins in 2008, 5-9%
pink: bare Obama wins, 2008 (<5%)
orange: shaky GOP wins, 2008
light green: Huckabee wins, Romney loses
medium green: Romney wins, Huckabee loses
medium blue: slight vulnerability for a GOP nominee in 2008
deep blue: no real chance for Obama in 2012

Obama will have to be incompetent to lose anything in maroon, as these states have well-entrenched pro-Democratic political cultures. Obama wins with these alone and practically anything else. Medium red? Some vulnerability should the economy go bad, but even one is enough to win in 2012 with the so-called Blue Firewall intact. Pink? They were marginal wins. Obama doesn't need them, but they are more likely holds than losses.

Orange? These will be difficult for any Republican nominee to hold. Except for Arizona these were legitimate swing states in 2008, and Arizona will be a legitimate swing state in 2012.     

Green? It depends on who wins the nomination. Huckabee wins the ones in pale green because he has the right political culture, but probably none of those in dark green (Utah? It's up to Huckabee to make amends with the LDS Church, because disrespect for the LDS Church is one way to lose Utah. Obama could win it against Huckabee even though Romney could win 80% of the vote there).  The Dakotas are not as close as Montana or Missouri, but Huckabee has yet to show that he can win outside the South in any states that aren't indiscriminately Republican.

Blue? Various shades of futility for Obama. Texas will be much closer in 2012 than in 2008 -- but not by enough -- due to urbanization and the rapid growth of the Hispanic vote. Alaska has some chance of a revenge vote if someone has done something nasty to Sarah Palin, and Nebraska isn't as deeply-Republican as Kansas or Oklahoma.  Medium blue suggests that Obama can win them only in a 40-state landslide.

The four different colors for Nebraska illustrate the mechanics of the 2012 Presidential race. Obama won NE-02 (Greater Omaha); NE-01 (eastern Nebraska except for Greater Omaha) is a possible pickup for Obama against either Huckabee or Romney [it appears yellow because orange somehow doesn't show on the little square for it]; Nebraska is a reasonably-certain win for Romney, but not so certain for Huckabee, and NE-03 is one of the most Republican-leaning districts in America, the sort that would vote for a Democrat only if the GOP nominee were David DuKKKe.

[Reaganfan]

Unlikely, but possible.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

HUCKABEE WILL NOT LOSE UTAH IN 2012!

[War on Want]

Unlikely, but possible.

How is it unlikely?

[Rowan]

HUCKABEE WILL NOT LOSE UTAH IN 2012!

[Reaganfan]

Unlikely, but possible.

How is it unlikely?

Insiders have speculated that the President is willing to risk his re-election in order to push forth his far-left agenda. I have a feeling that we may be in for a wave of one term Presidents, not just Obama.

[YRABNNRM]

Insiders have speculated that the President is willing to risk his re-election in order to push forth his far-left agenda.

Is that insider President Obama? Because he's said it quite frequently.

[??????????]

No.  Whitey will see to it.

REpublicans = Fear of a Black Planet.

That rock you came out from under is lonely.