will Barack Obama be re-elected?

[Ban my account ffs!]

At this point I am confident that Barack Obama will be reelected in 2012.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Or does well, people get used to him as president, economy begins to recover, he wins all the 2008 Obama states plus every state he lost by 8% or less.

Obama        387
Republican   151

For Obama to lose, he'd have to fare even worse than the pessimistic extreme in my example.  In a way then, anyone who is rooting for Obama to lose is, a la Limbaugh, indirectly rooting for Americans to be out of work, struggling to make ends meet or, a la Cheney from Panetta's perspective, rooting for a terrorist attack that kills people.

Don't forget Arizona. wasn't that won by 8%?

[pbrower2a]

Obama has a rough first term and campaign, loses all the states he lost in 2008, plus every state he won by 8% or less, even Virginia where is approval is now 59% approve 36% disapprove.
(Wikipedia estimates of 2012 Electoral College)

Obama 271
Republican 267

Or does well, people get used to him as president, economy begins to recover, he wins all the 2008 Obama states plus every state he lost by 8% or less.

(my modification)

Obama        400
Republican   138

He would likely win Arizona because it doesn't have a Favorite Son running for President. Eastern Nebraska is much like Iowa.

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Or perhaps fouling up the response to a natural disaster as badly as the Bush Administration fouled up the response to Hurricane Katrina. I can't be sure, but I wouldn't be surprised if Obama has already discussed such scenarios as "Category 5 Hurricane", "Really Nasty Earthquake", and "Volcanic Eruption" with the Cabinet.

That is the point. If we Americans fail at our economic and military responsibilities, then so does Obama. If we succeed as a people, doing what we used to do well before Dubya became President, then Obama will succeed in winning re-election. Paradoxically that could be things that we usually associate with Republicans -- like starting new businesses to fill the needs that Big Business left behind and making low-yield, long-term, illiquid investments in plant and equipment.

The GOP has no charismatic figure capable of offering anything (other than appeals to the usual GOP clienteles) that Obama can't offer.

 

[5280]

Obama has a rough first term and campaign, loses all the states he lost in 2008, plus every state he won by 8% or less, even Virginia where is approval is now 59% approve 36% disapprove.
(Wikipedia estimates of 2012 Electoral College)

Obama 271
Republican 267

Or does well, people get used to him as president, economy begins to recover, he wins all the 2008 Obama states plus every state he lost by 8% or less.

Obama        387
Republican   151

For Obama to lose, he'd have to fare even worse than the pessimistic extreme in my example.  In a way then, anyone who is rooting for Obama to lose is, a la Limbaugh, indirectly rooting for Americans to be out of work, struggling to make ends meet or, a la Cheney from Panetta's perspective, rooting for a terrorist attack that kills people.

Your first map is a hack, I modified it a bit.  If Obama's approval rating keeps going down then it's not a good sign.  The rocky mountain region doesn't want a far left president in power that long. 

[5280]

2012 re-election, Obama approval rating in the mid 20's (Carter '79)

[Badger]

Obama has a rough first term and campaign, loses all the states he lost in 2008, plus every state he won by 8% or less, even Virginia where is approval is now 59% approve 36% disapprove.
(Wikipedia estimates of 2012 Electoral College)

Obama 271
Republican 267

Or does well, people get used to him as president, economy begins to recover, he wins all the 2008 Obama states plus every state he lost by 8% or less.

Obama        387
Republican   151

For Obama to lose, he'd have to fare even worse than the pessimistic extreme in my example.  In a way then, anyone who is rooting for Obama to lose is, a la Limbaugh, indirectly rooting for Americans to be out of work, struggling to make ends meet or, a la Cheney from Panetta's perspective, rooting for a terrorist attack that kills people.

Your first map is a hack, I modified it a bit.  If Obama's approval rating keeps going down then it's not a good sign.  The rocky mountain region doesn't want a far left president in power that long. 

I'm not going to open the can of worms about the purported anti-incumbent tendencies of the Rockies, particularly Colorado. But flipping Nevada in this scenario? You do realize that IA, MN, NH, and even PA were closer in 08 than the 12.5% margin Obama won Nevada by, right?

I suggest that, while the the geographically vast--but very sparsely populated--interior of the state matches the typical conservative/libertarian western electorate ("Keep the federal government out of our business and wallets! Er, except for those water projects. And keep those cold war era military bases open too. And don't forget about leasing logging and mining rights on public land way below market value!), the main population centers of metro Vegas and Reno/Carson City are now closer in views to California and Oregon voters than say, Wyoming.

[pbrower2a]

Mediocre Obama Presidency meets a mediocre-to-poor GOP nominee for President (Egad, 2004 all over, withe the GOP equivalent of John Kerry!)

Obama                271
GOP  nominee    268

Obama's campaign will practically colonize Nevada, with paid staffers changing their legal residence to Nevada so that they can vote there.   The election will hinge upon Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia. Obama's margins drop severely in the Blue Firewall, but enough only to lose New Hampshire. Obama barely wins the electoral vote but loses the popular vote.