This was never Lean or Likely R and Democrats would be foolish to give up on FL.
But, but it's lean or likely Republican because of 2018...
I'd give Trump a small advantage, but Florida is absolutely winnable for the Democratic ticket. ... Either way, the state will be within 2-3 points. Somewhere between Trump +3 and Biden +1.5.
Pretty much this.
I think if Trump is winning, he probably wins Florida by 3-5 points like W did. On the other hand, if he is losing, he is losing Florida but by no more than 3 points.
In Florida, 47% of everyone who votes in each election is more or less a Democrat. 48% of them are more or less Republican.
It is only a fairly comfortable victory (Rubio, Obama '08, W '04) when basically everybody who didn't know who they were going to vote for at first voted for the same person. That said, a democrat has to win these voters by a large margin to win. They basically have to do what Trump did in the suburban Great Lake states in 2016.
