OH-Bloomberg: Trump +5/+5

[Virginiá]

It is f**king Selzer! Third best pollster according to 538.

Bull****

Is it really 'bs' to find issue with the sample the poll used? It is basically 2004's electorate, but only slightly less white (per nyt ep), and somehow less Hispanic:

White: 83% (was 86% in 2004 nyt ep) vs 79% in 2012
Black: 11% (was 11% in 2004) vs 15% in 2012
Hispanic: 2% (was 3% in 2004) vs 3% in 2012

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r2.771xfmKOI/v0
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls (2004-2012)

Now, if this is what their polls tell them the electorate might look like, then ok, but before this election ever started I wholeheartedly believed the electorate was never going to look like 2004 again. IF this is what the poll really assumes, then I have to believe it is wrong. I won't presume to say how wrong, though. It's not about being some partisan hack that just wants to "unskew" to assuage my fears of a Trump presidency, but rather about how I hate this idea that because Obama isn't on the ticket, somehow everything is going back to 2004 and minorities will forever stay low-turnout. That theory is ludicrous. So is this indeed the kind of voters they believe will make up 2016's OH electorate?

One thing worse than serial unskewers is the people who go around yelling "HAHA UNSKEWER" or the like whenever someone raises any kind of concern with a poll.

And for the record, since I can't rely on you to give any benefit of the doubt versus your desire to insult people, I'm only raising concern with the sample here and not trying to say Trump isn't closing the gap or perhaps even winning in Ohio right now.

edit: terminology

[Virginiá]

Firstly, turnout might change. The biggest "homogeneous" group in 2012 was non-college-educated Whites. And they had a very low turnout (56%).

Well, you are just as entitled to your opinion just as I am. We will just have to see. I'm rather excited for this election in the sense that it means that one way or another, the Republican wet dream of forever-2004 electorates, with minorities once again retreating from the polls on election day, will finally be put to the test.

[Virginiá]

Firstly, turnout might change. The biggest "homogeneous" group in 2012 was non-college-educated Whites. And they had a very low turnout (56%).

Well, you are just as entitled to your opinion just as I am. We will just have to see. I'm rather excited for this election in the sense that it means that one way or another, the Republican wet dream of forever-2004 electorates, with minorities once again retreating from the polls on election day, will finally be put to the test.

The difference is that I'm not trying to misscredit polls because of my beliefs (and I also believe in Shy Trumpers )

Is that the jab I was waiting for? You just can't help yourself.

Anyway, there is nothing sacrosanct about polls. If I see a projected electorate that differs widely from recent elections and also from well-studied voting and demographic trends, of course I am going to be skeptical. You can think what you want in regards to that. I suppose it would help if you yourself knew more about how and why the electorate has been changing (hint: it's not nearly all Obama's doing). Maybe you do, I dunno, but I don't care.