2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[Ragnaroni]

VALLAS WILL WIN
VALLAS WILL WIN
VALLAS WILL WIN
VALLAS WILL WIN!!!!!

[Dr. MB]

VALLAS WILL WIN
VALLAS WILL WIN
VALLAS WILL WIN
VALLAS WILL WIN!!!!!

no he wont

[Ragnaroni]

VALLAS WILL WIN
VALLAS WILL WIN
VALLAS WILL WIN
VALLAS WILL WIN!!!!!

no he wont

Let me have fun ok?

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/inthesetimesmag/status/1642165365588230150?s=20

I would love to know which cities these are. Any Brandon backers here able to provide examples? He says it all the time.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Final prediction: Vallas by 1-2%. Low turnout among young voters, a slight over performance among Black voters and Hispanic undecideds breaking his way will put him over the top. Gonna be tight though.

[Ferguson97]

Honestly this one kinda snuck up on me, I sort of just assumed it was happening in November.

I'm rooting for Brandon, but I think Vallas wins in a squeaker.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Vallas-is-a-Republican posters really need to reckon with the fact that the last two mayors before Lightfoot were Rahm, who pushed CTU to its first strike in a quarter-century, and M. Daley, who took control of CPS and replaced dozens of schools with charters (as part of his general project of stripping the copper out of city government). Vallas's record on education is what it is, but it's Chicago Democrats who have been the architects of privatization and charterization in Chicago schools (and Vallas who was hand-selected by M. Daley to organize much of that!). Haven't seen much to suggest Vallas would be too different from those two.

It sounds like both of them were awful too. Just because they claimed they were Democrats doesn't mean they actually did mainstream-Democrat things. Same with Vallas; what has he actually proposed that is mainstream Democrat at this point? Everything you see about him screams that he's *technically* a Democrat, but a very, very, very conservative one at that - and for a city like Chicago, that sounds terrible.

Rahm Emanuel has plenty of Democratic bona fides and was as mainstream as it gets. Being the mayor of a big city is probably the hardest elected job in politics and when facing a budget crisis every year something needs to be defunded or privatized or taxes need to be raised. It seems like most progressive policy in cities comes from the city council or the DA and I don't think that's a coincidence. As mayor you have to be the bad guy or outsource being the bad guy to people like Vallas as Daley did.

Rahm Emanuel was always a fairly conservative Democrat and despised by most progressives (with very good reason) when he was Obama's Chief of Staff.  I'll grant you that he wasn't an outright DINO like Vallas, but that's d***ing with faint praise.  At best, he is way to the right of the current Democratic mainstream (and I'd argue he has been ever since the 2008 cycle).

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/MaryAnnAhernNBC/status/1642720935332532225?cxt=HHwWgsC--Zb_j...

Hopefully that should be enough...

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 preview: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chicago-wisconsin-elections/

[wbrocks67]

That Victory Research poll has Johnson getting only 19% of Whites. Will it really be that lopsided?

[kwabbit]

That Victory Research poll has Johnson getting only 19% of Whites. Will it really be that lopsided?

BSP had Whites at 51-42 Emerson has 60-32 and Victory has 74-19. They all have similar results in the end driven by opposite minority numbers, with the BSP having Vallas losing Black voters by 27/winning Latinos, and Victory having Jonson winning Black voters by 50.

Emerson has it closest IMO.

[Pres Mike]

When will we know who won?

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/izqstrategies/status/1643077387595415553?s=46&t=fiWOCdxj...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The 43-47% is a stubborn number for Vallas

[Sir Mohamed]

The 43-47% is a stubborn number for Vallas

That's why I'm changing my last minute prediction from Vallas to Johnson. I think it will be 52.5-47.5%.

[Illiniwek]

The 43-47% is a stubborn number for Vallas

That's why I'm changing my last minute prediction from Vallas to Johnson. I think it will be 52.5-47.5%.

Yep. Johnson should have this in the bag.

[wbrocks67]

538 preview: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chicago-wisconsin-elections/

Someone got paid to write this. My God. Worst political writing about the city I've ever seen.

The quality of 538 has gone down significantly in the past few years. They're not sending their best.

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1643259629302870017

Early vote looks very favorable to Vallas. The three wards singled out had the below results in the first round (per Weigel):

41st ward: Vallas 72%, Johnson 7%
11th ward: Vallas 58%, Johnson 14%
19th ward: Vallas 62%, Johnson 9%

[Mr. Illini]

Voted unenthusiastically for Brandon yesterday. We’ll see how it all plays out.

[Sestak]

538 preview: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chicago-wisconsin-elections/

Someone got paid to write this. My God. Worst political writing about the city I've ever seen.

The worst political writing about the city, so far.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1643259629302870017
Early vote looks very favorable to Vallas. The three wards singled out had the below results in the first round (per Weigel):

41st ward: Vallas 72%, Johnson 7%
11th ward: Vallas 58%, Johnson 14%
19th ward: Vallas 62%, Johnson 9%

Not surprised that the ward containing Chicago's Chinatown was the least pro-Vallas and the most pro-Johnson of the three, although I have no idea if this is because the ward is more Asian or because it's the least White.

538 preview: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chicago-wisconsin-elections/

Someone got paid to write this. My God. Worst political writing about the city I've ever seen.

The worst political writing about the city, so far.

Was it bad because it tried to paint Chicago's residential polarization based on NYC's patterns, or because of the Frango reference?

Chicago’s political geography is not all that different from the political geography of many other American cities. Like in New York City, the city center is full of Democratic elites, while the quarters farthest from downtown are anti-establishment and even conservative. As in Los Angeles, the most progressive parts of town are gentrifying neighborhoods that are relatively white but are still racially diverse. And like in Boston, Minneapolis, Detroit and St. Louis, identity is just as, if not more, important to voters of color than a candidate’s political persuasion.

[Bismarck]

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1643259629302870017
Early vote looks very favorable to Vallas. The three wards singled out had the below results in the first round (per Weigel):

41st ward: Vallas 72%, Johnson 7%
11th ward: Vallas 58%, Johnson 14%
19th ward: Vallas 62%, Johnson 9%

Asians were Vallas’s best racial group in the first round IIRC.

Not surprised that the ward containing Chicago's Chinatown was the least pro-Vallas and the most pro-Johnson of the three, although I have no idea if this is because the ward is more Asian or because it's the least White.

538 preview: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chicago-wisconsin-elections/

Someone got paid to write this. My God. Worst political writing about the city I've ever seen.

The worst political writing about the city, so far.

Was it bad because it tried to paint Chicago's residential polarization based on NYC's patterns, or because of the Frango reference?

Chicago’s political geography is not all that different from the political geography of many other American cities. Like in New York City, the city center is full of Democratic elites, while the quarters farthest from downtown are anti-establishment and even conservative. As in Los Angeles, the most progressive parts of town are gentrifying neighborhoods that are relatively white but are still racially diverse. And like in Boston, Minneapolis, Detroit and St. Louis, identity is just as, if not more, important to voters of color than a candidate’s political persuasion.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1643259629302870017
Early vote looks very favorable to Vallas. The three wards singled out had the below results in the first round (per Weigel):

41st ward: Vallas 72%, Johnson 7%
11th ward: Vallas 58%, Johnson 14%
19th ward: Vallas 62%, Johnson 9%

Not surprised that the ward containing Chicago's Chinatown was the least pro-Vallas and the most pro-Johnson of the three, although I have no idea if this is because the ward is more Asian or because it's the least White.

Asians were Vallas’s best racial group in the first round IIRC.

I suspect the Asian voters of Chicago proper were less supportive of Vallas in aggregate during the primary than the non-gentrifier White voters were, and would certainly expect them to be less one-sidedly pro-Vallas in the runoff.

In any case, it will be interesting to see how the Latino areas break.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/04/04/us/elections/results-chicago-mayor-runoff.html

Results page

[Duke of York]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/04/04/us/elections/results-chicago-mayor-runoff.html

Results page

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