Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 1,026,653
Dem: 723,958 (70.5%)
Rep: 215,455 (21.0%)
= D+49.5

Total ballots returned: 651,848
Dem: 474,115 (72.7%)
Rep: 132,640 (20.3%)
= D+52.4

Dem return rate: 65.5%
Rep return rate: 61.5%

Dem lead: +341,475 (was +323,487)
Dem return rate lead: +4.0% (was +4.4% yesterday)

4 days out from election
2022: 1.06M; 70.1% D, 20.9% R — D+49.2
2023: 652K; 72.7% D, 20.3% R — D+52.4

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/gill_mcgoldrick/status/1720458127194161522

[Duke of York]

Total ballots requested: 1,026,653
Dem: 723,958 (70.5%)
Rep: 215,455 (21.0%)
= D+49.5

Total ballots returned: 651,848
Dem: 474,115 (72.7%)
Rep: 132,640 (20.3%)
= D+52.4

Dem return rate: 65.5%
Rep return rate: 61.5%

Dem lead: +341,475 (was +323,487)
Dem return rate lead: +4.0% (was +4.4% yesterday)

4 days out from election
2022: 1.06M; 70.1% D, 20.9% R — D+49.2
2023: 652K; 72.7% D, 20.3% R — D+52.4

Hows Philadelphia turnout?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The McCaffery spending advantage is very evident on the ground. I’ve seen nothing but pro-McCaffery and anti-Carluccio ads on TV and YouTube. And McCaffery’s signs outnumber Carluccio’s in my Trump +18, suburban Pittsburgh township.

[Splash]

The McCaffery spending advantage is very evident on the ground. I’ve seen nothing but pro-McCaffery and anti-Carluccio ads on TV and YouTube. And McCaffery’s signs outnumber Carluccio’s in my Trump +18, suburban Pittsburgh township.

Who do you think wins the race for County Exec? I think Innamorato probably still has it but it might be within single digits.

[wbrocks67]

Montco Dems really just.... I don't understand. I get that Democrats are now the dominant party here, but the county party really just does a completely awful job at getting out signs. This happens every single election - GOP signs (on public property) are always up early, and there's tons of them. It's like 10 GOP signs for every 1 Dem sign.

Now, again, this may be more of a microcosm of the GOP *needing* it more because they keep doing worse here, but still... it's like Dems aren't even trying.

I will say, I touched on this before - but I'm disappointed in Shapiro, Casey, et. al too. Shapiro has been doing some stuff with Inamorato, which is great, but nothing for Parker in Philly, nor cutting an ad for McCaffery, etc. It just feels like there was so much left on the table and a lot of the party is not even trying. Maybe that's because they feel so good about the election, but idk. Whether you're winning or losing, never take anything for chance, and there feels like so many missed opportunities here.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 1,026,913
Dem: 724,092 (70.5%)
Rep: 215,565 (21.0%)
= D+49.5

Total ballots returned: 709,735
Dem: 514,242 (72.5%)
Rep: 145,673 (20.5%)
= D+52.0

Dem return rate: 71.0%
Rep return rate: 67.5%

Dem lead: +368,569 (was +341,475 on Friday)
Dem return rate lead: +3.5% (was +4.0% on Friday)

1 day to election:
2022: 1.16M, 69.3% D, 21.3% R — D+48.0
2023: 710K, 72.5% D, 20.5% R — D+52.0

[Umengus]

GOP is not going to win this. Only trump can win PA for GOP.

[wbrocks67]

In theory, election day turnout should be even more balanced now that we're getting more and more out of the pandemic, so the early vote being *worse* for Republicans than 2022 given that, and the fact that Ds seem more energized in elections this year, makes me think this could end up pretty rough for Rs. Unless we get a major surprise and Ds dont show up on ED, but even with the early vote, D return rates are still higher in nearly every county in PA.

[Umengus]

In theory, election day turnout should be even more balanced now that we're getting more and more out of the pandemic, so the early vote being *worse* for Republicans than 2022 given that, and the fact that Ds seem more energized in elections this year, makes me think this could end up pretty rough for Rs. Unless we get a major surprise and Ds dont show up on ED, but even with the early vote, D return rates are still higher in nearly every county in PA.

yes we are toast this year. But next year will be completely different.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, McCaffery dominated Carluccio in the final stretch of fundraising.

He raised $1.11M, while she did just $483k.

https://www.politicspa.com/pa-supreme-court-spending-tops-15m/127094/

[Comrade Funk]

The only anti-McCaffery ad I've seen is one where they accused him of being sexist because his brother sent him porn over email

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 1,027,148
Dem: 724,222 (70.5%)
Rep: 215,649 (21.0%)
= D+49.5

Total ballots returned: 781,574
Dem: 562,589 (72.0%)
Rep: 162,477 (20.8%)
= D+51.2

Dem return rate: 77.7%
Rep return rate: 75.3%

Dem lead: +400,112 (was +368,569 yesterday)
Dem return rate lead: +2.4%

[wbrocks67]

On Tuesday morning of election:
2021: 685K; 71.1% D, 21.8% R — D+49.3
2022: 1.18M; 69.2% D, 21.3% R — D+47.9
2023: 782K; 72.0% D, 20.8% R — D+51.2

Dems close out really strong, with a +400K lead on Reps. The lead was +338K on the morning of 2021, and Brobson only won by 25K votes in the end.

Ds also ended with a +2.4% higher return rate than Reps. On Election Day in 2022, they were both even, and in 2021, Rs actually had a slight +0.2% edge.

[jvmh2009]

On Tuesday morning of election:
2021: 685K; 71.1% D, 21.8% R — D+49.3
2022: 1.18M; 69.2% D, 21.3% R — D+47.9
2023: 782K; 72.0% D, 20.8% R — D+51.2

Dems close out really strong, with a +400K lead on Reps. The lead was +338K on the morning of 2021, and Brobson only won by 25K votes in the end.

Ds also ended with a +2.4% higher return rate than Reps. On Election Day in 2022, they were both even, and in 2021, Rs actually had a slight +0.2% edge.

You love to see it

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

18 yo cousin, whose going to school in Bloomsburg, just texted me that they voted for the first time and it was straight ticket 'Dem'.    Let's bring it home boys!

[Kung Fu Kenny]

18 yo cousin, whose going to school in Bloomsburg, just texted me that they voted for the first time and it was straight ticket 'Dem'.    Let's bring it home boys!

Shout out to your cousin 🤝

[Not Me, Us]

My job gave everyone two hours paid leave for voting today, so I just got back. My site in Lancaster wasn't busy, but it never is. Local Republicans blew the Dems out of the water in terms of sign game and poll greeters, which was surprising since my local Dems are usually really good about that, even in a red area. I voted straight ticket D obviously, and wrote myself in for all the races without a Dem on the ballot.

[Splash]

I voted a little after 2PM. Voted straight Dem on all the judicial races and local posts.

I also ended up voting for Innamorato despite some reservations. Going into 2024, I want to make sure that "alternate elector" DeMarco doesn't doesn't have a chance of getting de facto control of the Allegheny BOE. Rockey's attempts to distance himself from the GOP were also too cute by half given the flood of outside money from GOP megadonors that financed his campaign.

[ctherainbow]

Voted at around 3:30; decent turnout for in-person voting in my precinct, but the big news has been mail-in returns.  In my county(Susquehanna), Dem return rates on mail-in ballots had already cracked 82% as of 9am, outpacing Republican returns by roughly 2.5%+.  I gotta get home and get in front of my spreadsheets, but the data I’ve seen so far locally and statewide looks good for Dems.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Voted at 3:00 in my Trump +16ish precinct. Line was small but bigger than it usually is during these types of off year elections. Had two races that were uncontested by the Dems on my ballot so I just wrote in Josh Shapiro for both of them rather than giving any votes to the GOP.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

I was voter #442 in my precinct and voted straight D. I’m not sure what normal turnout is in off years, but that felt like a pretty good number.

[wbrocks67]

Yep, I was #240 in my precinct around 3:30pm, which is already near 50% of 2022's election day turnout. Place was more crowded than I've seen in recent memory, surprisingly.

This feels like it could be a really great night for Ds once again.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1722085211633061907

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, to summarize the judicial results:

Dan McCaffery (D) beat Carolyn Carluccio (R) and Dems will now hold a 5-2 supermajority on the state Supreme Court and are guaranteed to control it until at least the early 2030s. It was previously 4D-2R and with one seat vacant.

Timika Lane (D) and Jill Beck (D) both flipped GOP-held seats on the state Superior court (Court below SC) and flipped control of the chamber from R to D in the process. Composition will now be 9D-6R.

Matt Wolf (D) beat Megan Martin (R) and flipped a seat on the Commonwealth court and will bring that chamber's composition down to 5R-4D.