Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Gass3268]

Today is the last day of in person EV, but folks can still return their ballots through the mail over the weekend.

[Gass3268]

Today is the last day of in person EV, but folks can still return their ballots through the mail over the weekend.

Where?

Early vote most places end today, but I was specificially talking about Arizona.

[Gass3268]

Polls close at 7pm, but they will allow everyone to vote to those in line. Some people are predicting it could go until midnight.

God bless the Culinary Union!

[Gass3268]

This is more voter registartion than early voting, but still this is nuts in CA-45:



https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1058490650428141568

[Gass3268]

As a reminder, some EV sites in Clark are open until 8pm today.

I saw some in shopping malls are are open until 9pm.

[Gass3268]

Huge props to Culinary226

[Gass3268]

The Culinary Union is telling people to stay in line:

https://twitter.com/Culinary226/status/1058562688861814784

[Gass3268]

Massive line in Henderson:

https://twitter.com/k_newberg/status/1058552546027962368

[Gass3268]

Massive line in Henderson:

https://twitter.com/k_newberg/status/1058552546027962368

Silverado Ranch is a GOP heavy area I think so may not be that good of news.

Someone posted a precinct map and said it was 60-34 Hillary.

[Gass3268]

Bonkers

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1058568334730510336

[Gass3268]

Registered Democrats up to a 35k vote lead in Iowa, with sizable leads in IA-01 and IA-03.

2016 totals:
IA-1: 68,470 D - 48,528 R
IA-2: 80,100 D - 54,444 R
IA-3: 69,396 D - 57,667 R
IA-4: 49,825 D - 65,161 R

Approx. 2018 Lead vs. 2016 Lead (2018 change):
IA-1: 15,800 D - 20,000 D (smaller D lead)
IA-2: 17,600 D - 25,600 D (much smaller D lead)
IA-3: 12,300 D - 11,700 D (slightly larger D lead)
IA-4: 10,100 R - 15,300 R (smaller R lead)

Dems had a lead of just under 42,000.
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2016/general/AbsenteeCongressional2016.pdf

Pretty clear looking at the map in 2016, that a decent chunk of registered Democrats voted for Trump and the NPAs broke heavily towards him.

[Gass3268]

Why are we comparing raw votes for a midterm to the last presidential? Totally different electorate.

It's something to talk about. It's ok to disqualify it, but it's still interesting.

Agreed, what's the comparison to 2014. I do like that IA-03 number.

[Gass3268]

Democrats took the lead today in Pinellas County, Florida.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1058867536383692800

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1059076040654495745

[Gass3268]

Democrats are going to have a pretty good day today in Florida, looks like super high turnout in the counties that are open.

Yeah it looks pretty crazy, but Reps will have the advantage on ED according to Schale (not sure why). Hopefully Democrats can keep it close on the 6th.

Democrats tend to early vote while Republicans are more traditional and wait until actual Election Day to vote.

I have to question that CW with the special elections we've been seeing in Florida this cycle though. Democrats actually did better on e-day than in the early vote in most of the specials..

Yeah, this year has been different, I wonder if that pattern will hold this year.

According to MCIMaps, Dems also won e-day in Florida in 2012

Same with the specials since 2016, then again most of those have been in the Cuban areas around Miami.

[Gass3268]

Do we know what counties where open today in Florida? I know not all of them were.

[Gass3268]

Do we know what counties where open today in Florida? I know not all of them where.

Bradford, Broward, Charlotte, Duval, Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Leon, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Polk, Seminole, St. Lucie, Suwannee and Volusia

as well as Panhandle counties of Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson., Liberty and Washington.

Thank you!

[Gass3268]

The early vote in Florida doesn't really tell much though, the NPA's are way too numerous to draw any predictions from it.

Exactly, I am just happy that it appears Democrats have been able to battle it down to essentially a tie.

[Gass3268]

I read on twitter, some polling stations in parts of Florida panhandle are open today, is that true ?

Untrue. Early voting is over.

You're wrong. They extended early voting in certain Panhandle counties due to the hurricane and the delay in being able to send in absentee ballots.

Ah, ok. My mistake. What counties?

Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and Jackson

[Gass3268]

Any chance the GOP narrows the Dem's EV lead by a meaningful amount via extended voting in these Panhandle counties? I know some of them still have artificially high Dem registrations, but I don't think that's the case in places like Bay.

Bay and Gulf are Republican. Calhoun, Franklin and Jackson are DINO counties. Gadsden is a real Dem county.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059491153882636293

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

You know the WOW counties will show up along with Dane County, but it's great to see Milwaukee up there above the state average. Maybe Mandela Barnes on the ticket is helping drive some turnout in the black northside of the city. Also it's great to see Menominee County up there, usually they drop off during midterms.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

You know the WOW counties will show up along with Dane County, but it's great to see Milwaukee up there above the state average. Maybe Mandela Barnes on the ticket is helping drive some turnout in the black northside of the city. Also it's great to see Menominee County up there, usually they drop off during midterms.

It's looking good! Menominee is maxing out; MKE is meeting the average, and Dane is off the charts.

Dane is literally a point away from the average, while Waukesha and Ozaukee outpace Milwaukee. What are you talking about? Great numbers for Walker.

The fact that Milwaukee is in the same range as Waukesha for a midterm election is incredible. The WOW counties and Dane County always show up, Milwaukee does not. If that holds tomorrow, it's a big deal.

[Gass3268]

Final early vote #s in Arizona:

GOP 41.4%, Dems 33.9%, Others 24%

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1059524470979739648

These are not final FYI.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1059486288225554433

Also Arizona is a huge VBM state, they will keep getting ballots until tomorrow.